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Plays of the Day
Value: Matt Barnes is a value play who is trending up right now with a combined 30 points, 9 rebounds and 5 STL/BLK over his last two appearances, as his playing time is rising rapidly. Dave Joerger’s comments that he’s “had enough,” and will “go small” going forward indicates that Barnes could re-enter the SLU with Kosta Koufos taking a seat in a good matchup against Toronto’s mediocre defense.
Fade: It’s hard to call Russell Westbrook a full fade, because he’s just about guaranteed to produce 50 FPs on either DFS site, but he might not be worth the money in a game that OKC could win easily. Feel free to go with a more balanced LU in tournaments and avoid Westy if he destroys the rest of your lineup with that price tag.
Games to Target
- Sacramento Kings (+3.5) hosting Toronto Raptors (Over/Under = 211.5)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+2.5) hosting Chicago Bulls (Over/Under = 211.5)
Kyle Lowry (TOR) @ SAC: DK:$8,200/FD:$8,300
With Russell Westbrook at home against a Pacers team missing it’s best player in Paul George, it might not make sense to pay a full $12K for him on DraftKings. That leaves Lowry as the top option in terms of floor/ceiling combination in a juicy matchup against the Kings. Every time the Raptors wind up in a close game, both Lowry and his prolific backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan seem to put up big lines, and that should be the case with Toronto (-3.5) slightly favored on the road tonight. After a slow start to the season, the Bulldog has come alive with averages of 20.7 PPG, 8.7 APG. 6.3 RPG and 1.5 SPG over his last 6 appearances and he stands to produce against a Kings team that ranks 29th in opponents FG shooting (.469%) this year.
Jeff Teague (IND) @ OKC DK:$6,800/FD:$6,600
If you’re going to pay up for Westbrook and assume a relatively close game, then Teague makes a lot of sense as a correlation play on this short slate. The Pacers really struggled without Paul George on Friday, as they wound up losing decisively to a horrible Suns team, but Teagues was solid with 21 points and 7 dimes in the losing effort. Indy could make some key adjustments to be more competitive at OKC this evening and we often see opposing PGs turn up their game in an effort to avoid getting embarrassed by Mr. Westbrook. Even with PG13 active, Teague has been excellent lately with averages of 19.2 PPG and 6.2 APG while playing 34.5 MPG over his last 6 appearances and he should see plenty of run in this matchup.
Kings HC Dave Joerger promised to go small more, which will open up minutes for Darren Collison ($5100/$5800) off the bench, while starting PG Ty Lawson ($3800/$4000) is a better bargain on both main DFS sites.
Rajon Rondo ($5300/$5500) was excellent in his return from an ankle injury last night and he draws a much easier matchup tonight against the Lakers.
DeMar DeRozan (TOR) @ SAC: DK:$8,600/FD:$9,200
The most consistent SG in DFS is a no-brainer in this plus matchup against the Kings. As mentioned above, Sacramento is horrible in terms of defending mid-range and interior shots, which is where DeRozan is making his money this season as he leads with the NBA with 59.4% FG shooting on shots between 10 and 16 feet. He’s had plenty of success against a Kings squad that coughed up the second-most FPPG to opposing SGs last season and is allowing 40 FPPG (seventh-most) to the position this year. His worst DFS performance (23 points, 32.5 DK points) of the season happened to come against Sacramento, so hopefully that will convince some donkeys to fade DeRozan in a matchup that’s quite appealing.
Victor Oladipo (OKC) vs. IND: DK:$6,200/FD:$5,700
As the first month of the season winds down, roles are beginning to cement and players are beginning to become comfortable with their new teams. That’s especially apparent with Dipo, who is suddenly producing alongside Westbrook with 55 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists over his last two appearances. Because of his previously quiet lines, Oladipo is obviously only about half the cost of his superstar backcourt mate, which makes him an appealing play if you choose to fade Westbrook in order to build a more balanced lineup. The Pacers are simply not a good defensive team, as they’re giving up the ninth-most PPG (107.5) and rank 24th in opponents FG shooting (.452%) this season, so Oladipo has a chance to make it three good games in a row by attacking the rim in this plus matchup.
Jordan Clarkson ($5500/$5100) is on a nice streak of production and he’ll be even more appealing as a mid-tier option if D’Angelo Russell (knee) misses tonight’s game.
Monta Ellis ($5600/$5500) is a true longshot given his consistently disappointing lines this season, but he should see more usage with Paul George (ankle) not expected to play this Sunday.
Jimmy Butler (CHI) @ LAL: DK:$8,700/FD:$8,500
Butler is essentially matchup proof, but he struggled a bit in the box score over his last two games with the Bulls visiting two top 10 defenses in the Jazz and Clippers. His squad will stay in L.A. to wrap up this road trip, but now they face a Lakers team that is dead last in opponents FG shooting (.472%) and allows the fourth-most PPG (109) in the NBA this season. Butler has had little issues on B2B sets with averages of 18.9 PPG and 5.6 APG while playing more minutes (37.7 MPG) on 0 days rest than in any other situation last year. He should have no problem ripping through a young Lakers defense on his way to a solid overall line and makes for one of the best cash game plays on the slate.
Matt Barnes (SAC) vs. TOR: DK:$4,200/FD:$4,100
Barnes is a value play who is trending up right now with a combined 30 points, 9 rebounds and 5 STL/BLK over his last two appearances, as his playing time is rising rapidly. Dave Joerger’s comments that he’s “had enough,” and will “go small” going forward indicates that Barnes could re-enter the SLU with Kosta Koufos taking a seat in a good matchup against Toronto’s mediocre defense. The Raptors are giving up an above average 38.62 FPPG to opposing SFs because DeMarre Carroll is no longer a shutdown defender and doesn’t seem entirely healthy this season. Barnes can knock down shots when defenses rotate to contain DeMarcus Cousins and he contributes with peripheral stats across the board, making him an ideal value play in any format.
Wilson Chandler ($5700/$6000) is a fantastic play in any format as he continues to carry the injury-plagued Nuggets.
Terrence Ross ($3600/$3800) is providing a nice third option as a scorer off the bench for Toronto and he could exceed value against the weak Kings defense.
Julius Randle (LAL) vs. CHI: DK:$6,500/FD:$6,700
Fresh off getting gutted by Blake Griffin during a Clippers comeback win last night, the Bulls will face a tough young PF who is built in a similar mode. Randle is dazzling with his ability to score, pass, or get to the FT line whenever he gets the ball at the elbow and it’s simply up to HC Luke Walton to give him enough minutes so that he can produce a double double and flirt with a triple double as he did in his last outing. Chicago is now giving up the seventh-most FPPG (45.38) to opposing PFs this season and struggles to contain the league’s quicker 4s, so Randle could have a big game in his third straight appearance.
Trey Lyles (UTA) @ DEN: DK:$4,800/FD:$4,000
Just when you thought he was going to fade into irrelevancy, Lyles broke out with 21 points as he took advantage of the absence of both Derrick Favors (knee) and Boris Diaw (rest) on Saturday night. While the veteran Diaw should be back in the lineup on the second half of a B2B set, he’s been virtually useless in the box score as well as on the court and the Jazz would be wise to move towards the future by giving Lyles his usual allotment of minutes. The sharpshooting PF is averaging 13.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.0 assists per 36 minutes this season and he’s been a solid value play with 20-plus DK points in three consecutive outings.
Taj Gibson ($5300/$5400) is pretty much the ideal cash game play at PF with his consistency and he’s probably the Bulls best option to defend Julius Randle.
Nikola Jokic ($4700/$4400) finally flashed a little upside in a close loss to Toronto and he’s worth a look in GPP formats if you believe that HC Mike Malone will give him another chance to play steady minutes.
DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) vs. TOR: DK:$10,400/FD:$10,200
Big Cuz played just about as poorly as someone can in real basketball terms last Friday, but his returns were fantastic in the box score. He dropped a season-high 38 points with 13 rebounds and 7 dimes to lead a comeback against the Clippers and the fact that he attempted 29 FGs and 14 FTs is extremely encouraging for his DFS prospects. He’s the only stud listed at a very weak position this evening and is virtually a must play tonight against a Raptors team that he burned for 25.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG over 2 meetings last season.
Robin Lopez ($5000/$4700) remains a steady cash game option and a good bet for a double double.
Myles Turner ($6400/$6200) is definitely worth a look as a tournament play, or as a solid play alongside Cousins where possible on DK with Paul George out.