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Plays of the Day
Value: Glenn Robinson III started last night and produced 16 points, 11 rebounds and 2 assists over 41 minutes to help Indy to a surprising win at Oklahoma City. Now, there's little chance that they ride that upset train into a home tilt against the title favorites this evening, but the pace and high-scoring nature in any Warriors game makes it worth targeting and Robinson clearly has a great chance to exceed value if he's going to play 35-40 MPG.
Fade: Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs (-17) check in as monstrous favorites at home tonight against a shorthanded Mavericks team, which makes it very hard to trust their starters in any format. Dallas is arguably the worst offensive team in the NBA right now and Leonard could shut down Harrison Barnes while San Antonio builds a huge lead over the first few quarters.
Games to Target
- Los Angeles Clippers (-8) hosting Toronto Raptors (Over/Under = 211.5)
- Minnesota Wolves (-2.5) hosting Boston Celtics (Over/Under = 208.5)
Isaiah Thomas (BOS) @ MIN DK:$7,900/FD:$8,200
As long as he's not drawing a tough matchup or his team is at risk of getting blown out, I'll take Isaiah over all guards priced above him if looking for a solid safe play. He's exceeded value in 11-of-13 appearances this season with 40-plus DK points in 8 of his last 10 appearances and he draws a great matchup tonight against a Wolves team that also emphasizes scoring over defense. Minnesota is ranked 7th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating while giving up the tenth-most FPPG (44.32) to opposing PGs this season. The return of Al Horford only opens up more driving lanes for Thomas while a good shooter on the wing in Jae Crowder could boost his assist totals, so there's really no reason for his price tag to stay this low on DK.
Jeff Teague (IND) vs. GSW DK:$6,900/FD:$6,600
Concerns of a blowout loss and of the Warriors tricky interior defense should limit your exposure to Teague to GPP formats, but he clearly makes for an appealing mid-tier option as the Pacers primary scorer and facilitator with Paul George out. PG13 is expected to miss at least one more game, while Teague should be brimming with confidence after matching Russell Westbrook with 30 points in an OT win at OKC last night. He posted an insane 42% Assist Rate and 24.2% Usage Rate in that contest, and Teague’s Usage has actually been over 20% in all but two appearances this season. With C.J. Miles and George likely out again, the opportunity is there for the Pacers floor general against a Warriors team that coughs up the seventh-most FPPG (45.62) to opposing PGs while playing at the third-fastest pace in the NBA.
Patrick Beverly ($4500/$4600) has been solid in both appearances for the Rockets this season and he should continue that trend in a plus matchup against the Pistons tonight.
Tyler Ulis ($3000/$3800) has become a favorite of Suns HC Earl Watson and he could continue to provide 3x value off the bench.
James Harden (HOU) @ DET: DK:$11,900/FD:$11,700
This is clearly the position upon which you should spend the bulk of your salary tonight, and the Beard stands out as a premier cash game play at a slightly cheaper price tag on DK. He’s coming off B2B big double doubles with a combined 57 points and 24 assists over his last two appearances and he’s currently on pace to become the fourth player in NBA history to average over 25 PPG and 10 APG over the course of a season. With a league-leading 12.5 APG and the second-highest Assist Rate (58.4%) in the NBA, matchups are hardly a concern for the Rockets new-age PG, and Harden should do just fine against Detroit’s solid defense. Last season, he averaged a triple double with 31 PPG, 13 RPG and 10.5 APG over 2 meetings with the Pistons and he’s clearly more of a triple double threat in his new role this year.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. ORL: DK:$8,800 as PG/FD:$9,600
The Greek Freak had a huge first half against the elite Warriors on Saturday before they started to scheme ways to stop him from getting into the paint, but he still finished with a great line (30 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds) in a narrow loss. He's probably going to pile up more peripheral stats this evening against an Orlando squad that is sporting the second-lowest FG% (.410%) and therefore gives up 35.5 defensive RPG (eighth-most in NBA) to the opposition. The Magic really struggle to contain athletic guards and Giannis had no trouble producing with averages of 17.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 5.0 APG over 4 meetings with Orlando last season.
Jonathan Gibson ($3700/$3800) will look to follow up his breakout game with another solid performance for the shorthanded Mavs, and his prospects seem safe even if Dallas gets blown out in San Antonio.
Did you know that Nik Stauskas ($3400/$3900) leads the NBA with a .700 True Shooting % this year? Fun fact, but don’t trust him outside of GPPs against a great Miami defense. Bradley Beal ($6000/$5700) and John Wall finally manned up with big games on Saturday and that puts the Wizards SG back on the map as a tournament option.
Andrew Wiggins (MIN) vs. BOS: DK:$7,400/FD:$6,900
Wiggins finally cooled off in a brutal matchup at Memphis last Saturday, but now he draws a completely different matchup against the Celtics struggling defense. Boston gives up the most FPPG (43.58) and second-most PPG (23.25) to opposing SFs this season, and while much of that production came due to the absence of defensive stopper Jae Crowder, he’s not exactly back up to speed yet. Wiggins has torched most individual defenders this season in a breakout campaign, as he’s averaging 25.7 PPG with a .581% True Shooting Percentage and is leading the league with a 50% mark from 3PT range. If you need a remember, Wiggy was tearing it up while averaging 33 PPG over his previous 6 appearances before that dud against Memphis, so he’s clearly a quality option at a mid-tier price tag.
Glenn Robinson III (IND) vs. GSW: DK:$3,700/FD:$3,500
If you're paying up for a stud at SG, you'll need to find salary relief at this position, and Robinson is a great way to do just that. The Michigan product is finally getting a chance to show what he can do with the Pacers missing their superstar in Paul George and their usual starting SG in C.J. Miles for at least one more game. Robinson started in their stead last night and produced 16 points, 11 rebounds and 2 assists over 41 minutes to help Indy to a surprising win at Oklahoma City. Now, there's little chance that they ride that upset train into a home tilt against the title favorites this evening, but the pace and high-scoring nature in any Warriors game makes it worth targeting and Robinson clearly has a great chance to exceed value if he's going to play 35-40 MPG.
James Ennis ($3900/$4100) will likely return to the SLU for the Grizzlies and provide modest returns with Chandler Parsons (knee) out for two weeks.
James Johnson ($4500/$4100) continues to produce off the bench for the Heat and you can’t beat his matchup against the 76ers tonight.
Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. TOR: DK:$8,500/FD:$9,100
Both Griffin and Chris Paul have been somewhat under priced all year because their production dips in blowout wins for the surprisingly dominant Clippers. Yet Blake has stepped up with averages of 26.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 4.3 APG with the Clippers going 2-1 in very close games over the past week. Tonight they’ll host a feisty Raptors (+8) squad that should give them a game regardless of the spread in Vegas, and Griffin will be asked to carry the offense with a plus individual matchup. Toronto is starting inexperienced PF Pascal Siakam and rotating poor defenders Luis Scola and Patrick Patterson behind him. Simply put, none of those guys have the skill set or strength necessary to handle Griffin on the low block, and the biggest difference in his game this year is an improved stroke at the FT line, as he’s 34-of-38 from the charity stripe over his last 3 appearances.
Thaddeus Young (IND) vs. GSW: DK:$5,500/FD:$5,200
Again, Indiana (+13) is not expected to give the Warriors much of a game at home tonight, but they could cover this spread considering how this is Golden State's third game over four nights on the road. The Dubs aren't very deep in the front court and they're struggling to defend the paint, instead opting to outscore teams during the regular season. This matchup would set up well for young center Myles Turner, but he's dealing with a twisted ankle that could keep him out or hamper his production tonight. Young played 41 minutes in the absence of Paul George last night and exceeded value for the first time in a long time. Yet he remains a steady source of production and a solid option in any format with the Pacers shorthanded.
Zach Randolph ($5000/$5400) is a quality cash game play on DraftKings with some upside due to his ability to post double doubles. Ersan Ilyasova ($4100/$3900) is more of a low-upside punt play.
Jared Dudley ($4000/$3900) has been up and down for the Suns, but he could see extended run off the bench against his former team tonight, or perhaps even start if T.J. Warren (illness) remains out.
Hassan Whiteside (MIA) @ PHI: DK:$9,300/FD:$9,100
It’s going to be tough to fit Whiteside into lineups with James Harden and/or another stud, but he should be worth flexing into different tournament LUs while fading other stars. He’s carrying such immense upside with averages of 17.8 PPG, 18.5 RPG and 3.0 BPG over his last 6 appearances and clearly draws a fantastic matchup tonight against the weak 76ers. While Joel Embiid is expected to play his usual 20-25 minutes, he’s still dwarfed by Whiteside on the low block and obviously won’t be out there for about half the game while the Heat’s monstrous center dominates. Even with Embiid contending for Rookie of the Year, Philly allows the third-most FPPG (48.83) to opposing centers this year, and Whiteside has been producing huge double doubles in tougher matchups than this one lately.
Clint Capela (HOU) @ DET: DK:$5,900/FD:$5,500
Your initial thought might be to play Andre Drummond against the fast-paced Rockets after he posted a 20-17 line against the undersized Celtics on Saturday, but Houston is actually ranked 4th in total rebounding and seems more capable of containing the one-trick pony. The sneaky play in this game might be Capela, who is a big reason for that solid rebounding rate and should see big minutes in an effort to contain Mr. Drummond tonight. A solid replacement for Dwight Howard, Capela is coming alive with averages of 13.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG over his last 5 appearances and he’s assuaging Mike D’Antoni’s fears by hitting 8-of-13 FT attempts during that span. The Pistons are unlikely to play Hack-a-Capela with Drummond sporting an even worse percentage on their side, so that takes care of one impediment to Capela’s potential playing time.
Alan Williams ($3900/$4200) would be worth a look in all formats if Tyson Chandler (personal) remains out for the Suns, but he’s still a decent punt play in GPPs.
Joel Embiid ($6400/$5500) is sporting ridiculous per-minute averages and he’s worth a look even though he’ll face off with Whiteside tonight.