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Scouting The NBA DFS - Tuesday, November 22

We've got a 4-game slate of NBA action this Tuesday, will you be playing or fading Russell Westbrook on DraftKings and FanDuel?

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Plays of the Day

Value: Mason Plumlee should exceed value once again tonight in a plus matchup against the Knicks. New York allows the ninth-most FPPG (48.24) to opposing centers and should be without starting center Joakim Noah (illness), which could open up the middle for Plumlee even more. He’s been a cash game lock with 20-plus DK points in 13-of-15 appearances this season.

Fade: I would love to play Anthony Davis regardless of his matchup, but it is a tough one against the Hawks top-ranked defense that is led by Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap down low. New Orleans (+8.5) is the biggest underdog on this slate and a blowout could spell disaster for Davis owners, especially if using him means fading Russell Westbrook.

Games to Target

  1. Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5) hosting Oklahoma City Thunder (Over/Under = 220.5)
  2. New York Knicks (-1.5) hosting Portland Blazers (Over/Under = 218.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Russell Westbrook (OKC) @ LAL DK:$12,500/FD:$11,800

When you can find a slew of upper-tier options to make up for Westbrook’s insane individual production, it makes sense to fade the Thunder’s superstar, but that’s not usually the case on a short slate. With just four games tonight, Westbrook stands out as a virtual must play in a game with a close line and the highest Over/Under (220.5 points) on the slate. He’s coming home to his native L.A., where he’s always put up big numbers and just put up consecutive triple doubles with OKC struggling to down Brooklyn before losing to Indiana at home. The Lakers give up the most APG (9.64) to opposing PGs this season and are playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA, so this is clearly a game to target and one in which Westbrook should carry the 8-6 Thunder to a badly needed win.

Tim Frazier (NOP) @ ATL DK:$5,100/FD:$5,400

I’m fine with using Jrue Holiday at $6,400 on DraftKings, but the Pelicans PG seems a bit over priced on FanDuel as he gets his rhythm back. Frazier is relatively cheap on both main DFS sites because of the assumption that Holiday’s return would destroy his value, but that hasn’t been the case so far. He’s averaging 34 MPG and has produced 29 points, 16 assists and 8 rebounds over two appearances with Holiday active, as he’s started both games. Holiday is playing more SG at the expense of E’Twaun Moore and Buddy Hield, while HC Alvin Gentry seems to appreciate Frazier’s ability to feed Anthony Davis in PnR sets and keep the Pelicans fast-paced offense moving. That makes him a solid mid-tier option even in a tough matchup at Atlanta.

Potential Value

Rajon Rondo ($5600/$5700) returned with two great lines for the Bulls over the weekend and he draws a juicy matchup tonight against the Nuggets.

Longshot

Langston Galloway ($3900/$4100) has also been producing in the Pelicans backcourt and he’s a bit of a risky punt play, but he’s worth a look for those in need of salary relief.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

C.J. McCollum (POR) @ NYK: DK:$7,400/FD:$7,500

The Knicks (-1.5) are surprisingly favored by Vegas in what should be a high-scoring affair tonight, which means that either Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum will be looking at a big night scoring the ball. Recently it’s been McCollum carrying the Blazers offense with Lillard slumping a bit, and that’s a trend that could continue against a Knicks team that gives up the third-most FPPG (40.83) and PPG (25.08) to opposing SGs this season. With averages of 22.9 PPG and just 3.4 APG on the year, McCollum’s DFS production mostly comes from his ability to score, so it’s great to note that the Knicks are ranked 28th in defensive rating and 26th in 3PT defense (opponents shooting .365%) this season.

Dwyane Wade (CHI) @ DEN: DK:$6,000/FD:$6,700

The Bulls wisely held Wade out on the second half of a B2B this past Sunday, so he should be well rested ahead of a potential track meet at altitude in Denver tonight. The Nuggets are playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA and allowing the eighth-most PPG (106.9) this season. The bulk of that production has come from two guards, as Denver coughs up the most PPG (26.92) to opposing SGs and the second-most FPPG (41.99) overall. Wade is still flashing plenty of upside when he picks his spots and the Bulls (-1.5) are going to need all three of their star guards to step up in a relatively tough road test this evening.

Potential Value

Jordan Clarkson ($5000/$4900) struggled badly with his shot on Sunday but he could bounce back with a much better line in a potential track meet with the Thunder this evening. Will Barton ($4700/$5100) doesn’t have too much upside until he gets his conditioning back but he’s worth a look at this price tag as well.

Longshot

Lou Williams ($5300/$5100) could always bottom out if his shots aren’t falling, but he’s coming off B2B big games and his role seems to be more secure while D’Angelo Russell (knee) deals with injury.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Jimmy Butler (CHI) @ DEN: DK:$9,200/FD:$8,600

You probably can’t play all three of the Bulls star guards when they’re all active, but it might not be the worst idea in this matchup. Only the Nets cough up more combined FPPG to opposing PGs and SGs than the Nuggets this year, so Wade and Butler should have a field day against this young team. With Wade out last Sunday, Butler erupted for 40 points and 59.25 DK points (58.4 FD points), which explains his notable price jump, but he’s still an excellent cash game option where affordable and he could have another big game if the Bulls and Nuggets wind up in a close contest down the stretch.

Wilson Chandler (DEN) vs. CHI: DK:$5,700/FD:$5,900

Chandler came back to earth after a huge 25-point, 10-rebound performance against Toronto, but he still dropped 17 points over just 24 minutes in an easy win over the Jazz last Sunday. The veteran has emerged as Denver’s most reliable scorer and that makes him an excellent mid-tier option in any format with the Nuggets hosting a quality ECF team in the Bulls tonight. Facing off with Butler is no easy task, but Chandler has made a living getting buckets against some of the toughest wings in the NBA and he’s trustworthy despite the matchup.

Potential Value

Kent Bazemore ($5500/$4900) continues to fill the stat sheet for the Hawks and he draws a good matchup tonight against the Pelicans.

Longshot

Maurice Harkless ($4900/$4500) has tapered off a bit over his last couple of games but the minutes are still there for him with Al-Farouq Aminu on the shelf.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) vs. POR: DK:$7,500/FD:$7,200

If you’re fading Anthony Davis at the top of the board at PF, you might want to cover your bases by fading Paul Millsap as well. The Hawks PF was shut down in 2 meetings with The Brow back in 2014-15, while Atlanta (-8.5) could pull away during the second half of that contest. The Knicks, however, are expected to give the Blazers all they can handle at MSG tonight, and Porzingis stands out as the biggest mismatch for a Portland squad that can’t settle on its frontcourt rotations. The Blazers have tried skinny Ed Davis, slow-footed Meyers Leonard, and under sized Al-Farouq Aminu at PF this year to no avail, as they’re coughing up the second-most FPPG (48.48), RPG (13.73) and most BPG (2.07) to opposing PFs this season. Porzingis can produce in all those categories and he’s really been heating up lately, so he seems like the best alternative as an affordable PF.

Taj Gibson (BOS) @ DEN: DK:$5,400/FD:$5,300

You’re not going to get excited about playing Gibson and he makes for an uninspiring GPP play, but plug him into your cash game lineups for safety this evening. The Nuggets and Bulls are actually the two best rebounding teams in the NBA by percentage, so a fierce rebounder like Gibson should log more minutes than finesse PF Nikola Mirotic. Taj matches up well against an athletic Nuggets front line that has actually given up an above average 43.09 FPPG to opposing PFs despite their collective rebounding ability. With 20-plus DK points in 13-of-14 appearances this season, Gibson is an extremely reliable play in the mid-tier range.

Potential Value

Larry Nance Jr. ($3900/$3900) is coming off a strong game for the Lakers and he could see extended minutes against the sizable Thunder. Kyle O’Quinn ($3600) should start for Joakim Noah (illness) tonight and he’s worth a look as a punt play on DK.

Longshot

Who knows if Nikola Jokic ($4500/$4500) will see enough playing time to meet value, but his cheap price tag makes him a tempting GPP option.

Centers

Two Studs

Mason Plumlee (POR) @ NYK: DK:$5,600/FD:$5,300

Aside from his statistical production, Plumlee is a candidate for one of the most improved players in the NBA this season. His ability to dive the basket and either pass to an open shooter or finish in the paint has secured his role as the Blazers primary center, and it should help him exceed value once again in a plus matchup against the Knicks. New York allows the ninth-most FPPG (48.24) to opposing centers and should be without starting center Joakim Noah (illness) tonight, which could open up the middle for Plumlee even more. Like Gibson, he’s been a cash game lock with 20-plus DK points in 13-of-15 appearances this season and he provides plenty of salary relief at this price tag.

Jusuf Nurkic (DEN) vs. CHI: DK:$4,600/FD:$4,900

Want to play it safe with a mid-tier center, play Robin Lopez! If you like to take chances, than play the Bosnian Beast, i.e. Jusuf Nurkic. He’s established a floor that is ridiculously low due to Mike Malone’s meddling tendencies, but the Nuggets coach has started to settle into a rotation that splits time between Nurkic and Jokic. With averages of 16.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes this year, Nurk is oozing with upside and he finally flashed that ability with a double double over 26 minutes against the Jazz on Sunday. The Bulls are a similar team in the sense that they crash the glass and force the opposition to stay big down low, so you can consider Nurkic if he’s in the Nuggets SLU this evening.

Potential Value

In addition to RoLo, Steven Adams ($5200/$4900) is a solid cash game play in this price range with the Thunder facing the fast-paced Lakers. And Enes Kanter ($4600/$4800 as PF on FD) is the GPP alternative.

Longshot

Guillermo Hernangomez ($3300/$3500) may benefit more than O’Quinn from Noah’s absence since he’s much quicker than the Knicks probable starter and matches up better with Plumlee.


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