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Plays of the Day
Value: Tim Frazier logged 33 minutes as the team’s primary ball-handler while Jrue Holiday logged 22 minutes off the bench as more of a backup PG and primary scorer with the second unit on Wednesday. Frazier was dropping dimes and leading the Pelicans with intensity, while he’ll face his former team tonight in the Blazers, who cough up the most PPG (113.4) and rank dead last in defensive rating.
Fade: Chris Paul is producing FP totals closer to his price tag of late and the Clippers suffocating defense has a lot to do with that diminished production. Tonight they’ll face a Pistons team that they embarrassed, 114-82, earlier this month, so both CP3 and Blake Griffin could post disappointing lines if this game is also a blowout.
Games to Target
- Denver Nuggets (+1.5) hosting Oklahoma City Thunder (Over/Under = 214)
- Portland Blazers (-4.5) hosting New Orleans Pelicans (Over/Under = 218.5)
Kemba Walker (CHA) @ NYK DK:$7,900/FD:$7,900
Kemba visits the Garden On this post-Thanksgiving Friday- a place of special significance to the Bronx Native. This is where Walker first entered sports lore with a ridiculous run to the Big East Title back in 2010. Last April, in his most recent trip to the most famous arena in the world, he dropped 34 points on these Knicks, and now he faces a team that is even worse defensively with Derrick Rose as the starting PG. New York ranks 27th in defensive rating and allows the tenth-most PPG (105.9) in the NBA despite playing at a slow pace this season. Kemba is the Hornets offense, so he doesn't need to get out in transition to produce, and he clearly loves playing in front of the crowd at MSG.
Tim Frazier (NOP) @ POR DK:$5,700/FD:$5,400
His final line doesn’t look that impressive (11 points, 8 assists, 26.5 DK points) from Wednesday night, but if you watched the second half of that blowout win over the Wolves, you would notice that the Pelicans backcourt now belongs to this man. Frazier logged 33 minutes as the team’s primary ball-handler while Jrue Holiday logged 22 minutes off the bench as more of a backup PG and primary scorer with the second unit. While he was out there, Frazier was dropping dimes and knifing into the paint for buckets, as he was playing with an edge and firing up the home crowd along with his teammates. He’ll face his former team tonight in the Blazers, who cough up the most PPG (113.4) and rank dead last in defensive rating, so he has a great chance to build on his last outing.
Jose Calderon ($3000/$3500) remains a solid punt play despite concerns of another Warriors blowout over the Lakers.
Jamal Murray ($3700/$3800) barely saw a rise in price after another hot shooting performance and he’s a great option to consider in GPPs against the Thunder.
James Harden (HOU) @ SAC: DK:$11,700/FD:$11,700
With two excellent mid-tier studs and two solid value plays listed above at the PG position, it should be easy to pay up for the unquestioned king at SG. Harden’s basically a lock for 50+ FPs every time he takes the floor in this new system and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against a Kings team that allows the seventh-most FPPG (38.93) and sixth-most PPG (24.0) to opposing SGs this season. Harden averaged a ridiculous 36.3 PPG and 8 APG over 4 meetings with Sacramento last season and his numbers have obviously spiked this year as Houston’s primary PG and scorer, so feel free to pay up for him in any format and lock him into cash games.
Victor Oladipo (OKC) @ DEN: DK:$6,600/FD:$5,900
Hopefully the crowd chases production from Wizards SG Bradley Beal, who has scored 76 points over his last two games but still does almost nothing in terms of peripheral stats. If that makes Oladipo lightly owned on this full slate, great, because the Thunder's secondary scorer is coming alive and routinely exceeding value at his diminished price tag. He's averaging 20.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 4.6 APG while playing 37.8 MPG over his last five appearances, as HC Billy Donovan wants Dipo to lead the second unit while also finishing alongside Westbrook in crunch time. Good thing he's in immaculate shape, because tonight OKC plays at altitude against a Nuggets team that gives up the sixth-most PPG (107) in the NBA and allows the most FPPG (42.98) to opposing SGs this season, so he should be able to run past Denver guards while they catch their breath.
Jordan Clarkson ($5400/$4900) is looking at an increased role with D’Angelo Russell (knee) out for a couple of weeks and Nick Young (toe) questionable for the Lakers. Despite a quiet game on Wednesday, Tony Allen ($4000/$3500) is still a great punt play with Memphis shorthanded on the wing.
You might see Jonathan Gibson ($3800/$3600 as PG on FD) rack up FPs in garbage time after Cleveland (-15) demolishes the Mavericks starters tonight.
Kevin Durant (GSW) @ LAL: DK:$9,600/FD:$9,900
It’s tough to choose between KD, LeBron and Jimmy Butler when all three elite SFs are sizable favorites facing inferior teams and they will probably get some extra rest down the stretch tonight. However, Durant offers the highest ceiling because his Warriors are playing at a blinding pace, while the Lakers are ranked fourth in pace and 29th in defensive rating this year. That’s why this game has the biggest Over/Under (230.5) on a full slate and could provide excellent fantasy returns if the Lakers put together a better effort than they did on Wednesday. The Dubs set an NBA record with 47 team assists while dropping 149 points on the Lakers at home two nights ago, and KD posted his usual 47 DK points (45.7 FD points) in the easy win, so he’s a relatively safe play no matter how quickly the rematch might get out of hand.
Wilson Chandler (DEN) vs. OKC: DK:$5,700/FD:$5,900
Despite Chandler’s quiet line (13 points over 24 minutes) in a blowout loss to the Jazz on Wednesday, he remains the primary scorer on this young team and he’s much more likely to stay involved in a close game with the visiting Thunder (+1.5) expected to barely win. Danilo Gallinari (thigh) is questionable to suit up tonight while Gary Harris (foot) remains out and Will Barton (ankle) is really rusty and out of shape as he tries to return from a multi-week absence. Chandler is sporting a 26.8% Usage Rate over his last five appearances as a result and he shouldn't have much trouble matching points with Westbrook and a Thunder squad that lacks the depth and versatility necessary to play solid perimeter defense.
Evan Turner ($4000/$4100) is running with the Blazers starting unit more and more and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans defense. Trevor Ariza ($5500/$5200) remains the gold standard for mid-tier cash game plays.
Vince Carter ($4200/$4400) struggled to hit shots on Wednesday but he played a whopping 39 minutes for the shorthanded Grizzlies and that makes him worth a look.
Anthony Davis (NOP) @ POR: DK:$10,700/FD:$11,600
If we didn’t sound too inspired about paying up for any top SF, it’s because the top option at PF is that much more appealing. Davis and the Pelicans face a Blazers squad that is top ten in pace and dead last in just about every defensive category, while remaining woefully overmatched on the low block. Kevin Love embarrassed Portland’s PFs on his way to a 34-point first quarter two nights ago and they coughed up 38 points and 16 rebounds to Davis in New Orleans last week. Overall, the Blazers are giving up the second-most FPPG (49.06), most PPG (23.88) and most BPG (2.06) to opposing PFs this season, so clearly this is a great spot for The Brow to put up one of his characteristically huge lines.
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) vs. CHA: DK:$7,700/FD:$7,200
If you're looking for a star to stack on the Knicks side of the ball against Kemba and the Hornets, don't play Carmelo or D-Rose. The future is now at MSG and the fans have progressed to the point that they're issuing a collective moan when Melo touches the ball in the halfcourt, while cheering Porzingis relentlessly. The big Latvian has been earning that praise with averages of 25 PPG, 9 RPG and 42.5 DK PPG over his last five appearances and he has a great chance to keep rolling in tonight's matchup. Charlotte is solid overall on the defensive end, but the Hornets lack quality big men and allow the sixth-most FPPG (48.45) to opposing centers as a result. The Unicorn plays some PF and some center, but regardless of where he lines up, he represents a mismatch for most NBA big men.
Larry Nance Jr. ($4400/$3900) didn’t exactly light the world on fire with Julius Randle (hip) out on Wednesday, but he’ll remain a safe punt play if Randle sits again. Ersan Ilyasova ($4200/$3900) is an option with more upside in this price range.
Trevor Booker ($5300/$5200) is coming off a huge game against the Celtics and he could rip through the Pacers soft front line tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) @ PHO: DK:$8,400/FD:$9,000
We made the mistake of recommending Hassan Whiteside before he was dominated by Andre Drummond on Wednesday, but now we’re ready to crown KAT the King of Cash Games. Arguably the most reliable center on the board any time he suits up, only blowout losses have prevented Towns from meeting value this year. There’s little to no chance of a blowout loss for the Wolves (-2) in Phoenix tonight against an inexperienced Suns team that is giving up an above average 46.06 FPPG to opposing centers this year. Phoenix plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the fourth-most RPG (45.3) to the opposition as a result, so Towns is a great bet for a double double with his impressive 26.5% Rebounding Rate as a pro.
Brook Lopez (BKN) @ IND: DK:$6,800/FD:$7,300
A pure GPP play through and through, Lopez is quiet in just about every game in which the Nets are blown out early, but he's obviously the center piece of their offense and winds up producing pretty good numbers in every close contest. Brooklyn (+8.5) is a modest underdog tonight in a game with a 216.5-point Over/Under against an Indiana squad that is surprisingly giving up the fifth-most PPG (107.8) in the NBA this season. The Pacers allow the second-most FPPG (50.3) to opposing centers as well and starting big man Myles Turner (ankle) might not be at full strength as he tries to contain BroLo.
Again, you can pencil Mason Plumlee ($5400/$5300) in for 25-30 FPs just about every night. Clint Capela ($6000/$5800) is an intriguing option with more upside in this price range.
Jonas Valanciunas ($5700/$6200) is heating up for the Raptors once again and he faces a Bucks team that is literally awful against opposing centers tonight.