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Plays of the Day
Value: With Paul George (ankle) expected to miss at least three more games and C.J. Miles (knee) ruled out for at least tonight’s game, Glenn Robinson III should earn another start and another opportunity to try and get hot from the field. He’s been boom-or-bust in this role, and the Clippers are an excellent defensive team, but their greatest weakness is on the wing and they started to spring some leaks in a bad loss to the Pistons the other night, so Robinson is worth a look as a punt play on FanDuel and a solid GPP option on DK tonight.
Fade: Damian Lillard has caught fire over his last couple of games in good matcups against the Cavs and Pelicans. Yet now he faces a surprisingly stingy Houston backcourt that has really improved since nightly pest Patrick Beverly returned to the SLU. Beverly held Lillard in check last season and contained him in a meeting a couple of weeks ago, so it might be wise to avoid the Blazers star at a lofty price tag.
Games to Target
- Portland Blazers (+3) hosting Houston Rockets (Over/Under = 223.5)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+4) hosting Atlanta Hawks (Over/Under = 210.5)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) @ ORL DK:$9,300/FD:$10,200 as SG
It’s the Greek Freak as the top pure PG on DraftKings today with James Harden eligible at SG on that site. Giannis is another triple double threat with a high ceiling and a solid floor due to his ability to rack up peripheral stats. He draws a plus matchup tonight against a Magic team that allows the sixth most DK PPG to opposing PGs this season and struggles to defend athletic wing players. Antetokounmpo proved as much by dropping his first triple double of the year with 21 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in a win over the Magic last week and he’s a good bet for similar production even if he falls short of the triple double bonus tonight.
Patrick Beverly (HOU) @ POR DK:$4,400/FD:$4,600
You’re going to find a lot of Rockets in tonight’s write-up after they launched and hit an NBA record number of threes (21-of-50) as a team on Friday. Houston is a new age basketball team in terms of their complete disdain for mid-range jump shots, and Beverly is one of the players on this roster whose job is simply to play defense and launch from beyond the arc. He’s going to play heavy minutes again after locking down Damian Lillard and holding the Blazers star to 18 points on 7-of-17 FG shooting a couple of weeks ago, while he’s only been getting healthier since then. Beverly is averaging 8.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5 assists while playing 33 MPG over his last two appearances and he’s definitely under priced on DraftKings right now since he’s coming off an injury.
I would lock Jose Calderon ($3400/$3500) into cash game lineups as long as he’s starting for the fast-paced Lakers and is priced near the minimum.
Isaiah Whitehead ($3200/$3900) is worth a look as a low-upside value play, while Matthew Dellavedova ($4100/$4000) is a punt play with a little more upside against Orlando.
James Harden (HOU) @ POR: DK:$11,500/FD:$11,400
There’s not much to be said when Harden is facing arguably the worst defensive team in the NBA. Portland is giving up the second-most PPG (112.8) and is ranked dead last in defensive rating while struggling against opposing SGs in particular. Harden gets a lot of guff for his effort on the defensive end, but he pales in comparison to human matador C.J. McCollum, as the prolific young Blazers scorer barely plays any defense. Partially because of McCollum’s limitations, Harden averaged 39.5 PPG, 8.3 APG and 7.5 RPG over 4 meetings with Portland last year and he posted a triple double to produce 72 DK points in a 126-109 win over the Blazers ten days ago. If there’s one player to pay up for tonight, it’s The Beard.
Jordan Clarkson (LAL) vs. ATL: DK:$5,900/FD:$5,000
He’s been under priced on FanDuel with D’Angelo Russell (knee) out over the last week or so and Clarkson is a much safer play now that his team isn’t at risk of a blowout loss. The Hawks are a solid team, but facing Atlanta at home is much easier than a B2B set against the Warriors around Thanksgiving, in which Clarkson still hit value with a combined 36 points, 5 rebounds and 6 steals over 67 minutes in those contests. He might not start, but he’s going to serve as the primary scorer and facilitator for the Lakers with Russell out and that makes him a very secure cash game option on DFS sites that don’t charge players for missed shots or dramatically penalize turnovers.
Rodney Stuckey ($3700/$4000) is another under priced player who is starting to get healthy right now and his usage will increase greatly with Paul George (ankle) out for a few more games.
It sounds like Deron Williams (calf) could be limited or inactive tonight, which would put Seth Curry ($5200/$4600) back on the radar as a GPP option.
Trevor Ariza (HOU) @ POR: DK:$5,700/FD:$5,300
I don’t know if you can use everyone in the Rockets SLU, but Beverly, Harden and Ariza seem like a fine stack given how cheap those two role players are alongside The Beard. Ariza came alive with six threes in the Rockets record-setting performance the other night and now he’s facing a Blazers squad that coughs up the third-most 3PTM (9.5) per game and ranks 23rd in overall 3PT defense (.361%) this year. Ariza’s price tag never really changes and his upside is limited, but he stands out as the best per dollar option at this position tonight and remains a cash game staple in the right matchups.
Glenn Robinson III (IND) vs. LAC: DK:$5,000/FD:$3,800
With Paul George (ankle) expected to miss at least three more games and C.J. Miles (knee) ruled out for at least tonight’s game, Robinson should earn another start and another opportunity to try and get hot from the field. He’s been boom-or-bust in this role, as he went 6-of-14 from the field for 16 points and 11 rebounds against OKC, struggled with his shot (3-of-14) in a blowout loss to the Warriors, but rebounded with 20 points on efficient 6-of-10 FG shooting while playing a whopping 40 minutes against the Nets on Friday night. The Clippers are a far superior defensive team, but their greatest weakness is on the wing and they started to spring some leaks in a bad loss to the Pistons the other night, so Robinson is worth a look as a punt play on FanDuel and a solid GPP option on DK tonight.
Evan Turner ($4000/$4200) continues to see more minutes for the Blazers and he’s worth a look in the top game to target this Sunday.
Harrison Barnes ($5800/$5900) could get ignored now that Dirk Nowitzki is back for the Mavericks, but he’s still capable of putting up big games in plus matchups such as tonight’s home tilt against New Orleans.
Anthony Davis (NOP) @ DAL: DK:$11,300/FD:$11,900
The Brow returned with a vengeance over the weekend after scaring seasonal owners with yet another mid-game trip to the locker room earlier last week, as he dropped a combined 76 points, 23 rebounds, 6 blocks and 130.75 DK points over two dominant performances against the Wolves and Blazers. He draws another great matchup tonight against a Mavericks team that appears to have good DvP splits against PFs, but has really struggled against athletic big men and should only get worse at defending the post with Dirk Nowitzki (achilles) back in action. The Brow steamrolled Nowitzki and the Mavs to the tune of 30 PPG, 12 RPG and 2 BPG over 3 meetings during his last healthy season (2014-15) and he’s clearly rolling right now while the Pelicans look to right the ship.
Trevor Booker (BKN) vs. SAC: DK:$5,500/FD:$5,600
While some Nets are packing it in already in a lost season, Booker seems to play hard every night and he has the numbers to prove it. The journeyman is averaging 14.7 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.0 APG and 36 DK PPG over his last 3 appearances, as he’s taken advantage of some plus matchups. Tonight he faces a Kings team that remains vulnerable on the interior, ranking 24th in opponents FG shooting (.462%) and 27th in defensive rating on the season. Sacramento has been hemorrhaging production to all positions of late and coughs up the third-most FPPG (46.47) to opposing PFs this season, so Booker is a great mid-tier option with the potential to log another double double.
Larry Nance Jr. ($4400/$3900) is probable tonight and he’ll serve as a great value if Julius Randle (hip) misses another game for the Lakers. Terrence Jones ($5600/$5100) is also a solid value, as he played 30 minutes again on Friday and production will follow when he gets that amount of run.
Serge Ibaka ($6200/$6100) bounced back from a dud against the Suns last Wednesday to produce 42 DK points against the Wizards, and now he draws a much easier matchup against the weak Bucks front line tonight.
Dwight Howard (ATL) @ LAL: DK:$7,400/FD:$8,000
Howard should be lightly owned after he dropped a complete dud along with his teammates in a 95-68 loss at Utah on Friday. Yet tonight the Hawks should bounce back in a big way against a Lakers team that ranks 28th in PPG allowed (111.9), 30th in opponents FG shooting (.487%) and 29th in defensive rating while playing at the fourth-fastest pace this season. Howard should be motivated to face the franchise that kicked him on his way out the door a couple of season ago, as he already burned the Lakers for 31 points and 11 rebounds in a meeting at the beginning of November. This is a plus matchup on paper and a great spot for the believers in #NarrativeStreet.
Mason Plumlee (POR) vs. HOU: DK:$5,600/FD:$5,700
I suppose you need some exposure to Blazers players in this potential track meet tonight and their reliable center is a good place to start. Plumlee has been a great cash game play all season since he dropped a dud in the opener but he flashed startling upside with 12 points, 14 rebounds and 8 assists to flirt with a triple in a similar matchup against the Pelicans last Friday. He’s been one of the most improved big men in the league due to his ability to pass out of the paint to open shooters and that’s why he’s averaging a career-best 4.6 APG so far this year. He’s produced at least 26 DK points in 9 consecutive outings and faces a Rockets team tonight that will push the pace and shoot plenty of threes, providing more opportunities to rebound.
Andrew Bogut ($4100/$4400) has played steady minutes over his last couple appearances and he should be needed to contend with Anthony Davis and the Pelicans tonight.
Good luck with it happening consistently, but Nikola Vucevic ($6100/$6800) has produced some huge lines in recent games and he could rip through the weak Bucks front court tonight.