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Scouting The NBA DFS - Monday, November 28

We break down this 7-game slate of NBA action to help you cash in DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Troy Williams should have ample opportunities to produce for the Grizzlies with James Ennis and Chandler Parsons out over the next couple of weeks and he’s seeing an even bigger role with Zach Randolph (personal) on leave as well. The UDFA provided modest returns with 9 points and 6 rebounds in his first start last Friday, but immediately followed that up with 18 points on 6-of-12 FG Shooting to earn 35 minutes of run in a narrow 110-107 win over Miami, so clearly he’s earning the trust of his head coach.

Fade: DeMar DeRozan is just a bit too expensive on FanDuel to stand out as a great play in a good matchup against the 76ers. While Philadelphia (+15) is vulnerable against opposing SGs, the Sixers are also on the second half of a B2B and they could easily get blown out on the road.

Games to Target

  1. Washington Wizards (-5) hosting Sacramento Kings (Over/Under = 212.5)
  2. New York Knicks (-1) hosting Oklahoma City Thunder (Over/Under = 213)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Stephen Curry (GSW) vs. ATL DK:$9,300/FD:$9,400

Rumours of Curry’s demise in fantasy were seemingly exaggerated, as the two-time MVP is plugging right along with averages of 24.5 PPG, 6.3 APG, 5.2 RPG and 1.8 SPG over his 6 appearances. His production spiked due to an increase of peripheral stats with Draymond Green (ankle) out on Saturday night and Green’s continued absence would give Atlanta (+15) a better chance of covering the spread and forcing the Warriors to play their starters late. Curry torched the Hawks for 36 points and 8 assists in his sole meeting with Atlanta last year and faces a team that is on the second half of a B2B set and just coughed up 109 points to the shorthanded Lakers, so the Dubs offense should be clicking on all cylinders with Curry and KD leading the charge.

Mike Conley (MEM) vs. CHA DK:$6,500/FD:$7,400

He’s consistently under priced on at least one of the main DFS sites and tonight Conley is a bargain on DraftKings ahead of a potential showdown with Hornets stud PG Kemba Walker. All season long, Conley has stepped up to the challenge when facing off with John Wall, Chris Paul, or Damian Lillard and he scored 31 points on 11-of-21 shooting to lead his Grizzlies past Kemba’s Hornets last Monday. Conley will be worth GPP consideration any time he faces another elite PG and he’s a very solid cash game play along with Memphis center Marc Gasol because of how valuable both players are on both ends of the floor. The Grizzlies are depending even more on their guards with Chandler Parsons, James Ennis and Zach Randolph all unavailable right now, so Conley’s a bit safer than usual and he has tournament-winning upside at this modest price tag.

Potential Value

Sergio Rodriguez ($3600/$4200) will be safe to deploy if Jerryd Bayless (wrist) sits out another game for Philly.

Longshot

Derrick Rose ($6000/$6100) is starting to show signs of life for the Knicks and he’ll also have to step up in a showdown at home against elite PG Russell Westbrook.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Bradley Beal (WAS) vs. SAC: DK:$6,900/FD:$6,300

He’s kind of a poor man’s DeMar DeRozan ($8400/$9300) right now given his ability to pile up points but provide very few peripheral stats, and Beal is priced well below DDR in an equally appealing matchup tonight. The Kings have improved defensively, but still allow an above average 38.7 FPPG and 24 PPG to opposing SGs this season. Beal has been on a tear recently with averages of 26,6 PPG, 4.4 APG and 40.5 DK PPG over his last 5 appearances and he’s logging 37 MPG during that span as the Wizards seem to realize that their season will slip away early if they don’t press John Wall and Beal to step up and play bigger minutes. With a 28.4% Usage Rate over his last 6 appearances, Beal is a good bet to at least meet value by keeping pace with the high-scoring Kings this evening.

Victor Oladipo (OKC) @ NYK: DK:$6,600/FD:$6,300

His price tag is slowly rising on FanDuel, but Oladipo remains a relative bargain on both main DFS sites and a viable alternative to Westbrook at half the cost. Even in a blowout win over the Pistons on Saturday, Dipo produced 30-plus DK points for a seventh consecutive game after he seemed to find his confidence with a huge line (29-10-5) against the Rockets two weeks ago. OKC (+1) is actually an under dog at MSG tonight, so Westbrook isn’t necessarily an easy fade either, but I think you need to get some piece of the Thunder’s offense against the Knicks 26th-ranked defense and Dipo is a more affordable option.

Potential Value

Nik Stauskas ($3800/$4000) continues to produce in a significant role for the 76ers and he would see a boost in playing time if Bayless sits. Tony Allen ($4000/$4100) is another solid cash game play for the shorthanded Grizzlies.

Longshot

While everyone speculates on Miami’s crowded backcourt, I might go with Avery Bradley ($6400/$6600) as an under priced option on DK.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kevin Durant (GSW) vs. ATL: DK:$9,900/FD:$10,000

Going cheap at guard will allow you play the best SF on this slate by far, as Durant has established a floor-ceiling combination that few other players at any position can replicate right now. He's doing it despite the fact that the Warriors average margin of victory (13.2 PPG) is the largest in the NBA and he's playing just 34.2 MPG as a result. Yet KD leads the league with a .684% True Shooting Percentage and his responsibilities on the defensive end really increased with Draymond Green (ankle) inactive last Saturday. The Hawks (+15) might have trouble keeping this game close at Oracle Arena, but Durant's ability to pick it up with his peripheral stats when he slides over to PF should allow him to meet or exceed value again.

Troy Williams (MEM) vs. CHA: DK:$3,600 as SG/FD:$3,700

Williams should have ample opportunities to produce for the Grizzlies with James Ennis and Chandler Parsons out over the next couple of weeks and he’s seeing an even bigger role with Zach Randolph (personal) on leave as well. The UDFA provided modest returns with 9 points and 6 rebounds in his first start last Friday, but immediately followed that up with 18 points on 6-of-12 FG Shooting to earn 35 minutes of run in a narrow 110-107 win over Miami, so clearly he’s earning the trust of his head coach. At this price tag, Williams is virtually a lock to exceed value if he can log over 30 minutes of run once again and he’s worth a look as a punt play regardless of the tough matchup against Charlotte.

Potential Value

James Johnson ($4500/$4200) continues to meet or exceed value as a reliable cheap play and he’ll remain locked into cash games if Justise Winslow (wrist) is out for Miami.

Longshot

We might hear that Jae Crowder ($5200/$5600) is available for more than 25 minutes tonight, which would make him a very solid mid-tier play.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) vs. OKC: DK:$7,500/FD:$7,200

The Zinger continues to produce solid lines on nights where Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony are feeling it and he’s capable of blowing up if the Knicks need him to increase his offensive production. He’s produced at least 34 DK points (32 FD points) in six consecutive games since HC Jeff Hornacek decided to give him extra run at center and he represents a huge mismatch for the Thunder’s hulking centers (Steven Adams and Enes Kanter) on the offensive end if they try to guard him tonight. With range out to 25 feet and array of guard-like moves, Porzingis is a tough cover for any team, and that’s certainly the case for a Thunder team that is limited down low.

Ersan Ilyasova (PHI) @ TOR: DK:$4,600/FD:$4,600

It's pretty much as simple as Ilyasova checking in at an under priced tag on both main DFS sites in his fifth consecutive appearance. The 76ers are turning to Ghostface Ilya as their starting PF and one of their primary scorers, and his production and playing time tends to spike when Joel Embiid (rest) sits out games. Embiid is reportedly going to sit out the second half of a B2B set tonight and that leaves Ilyasova to fill the void after he's already been averaging a solid 14.8 PPG and 9 RPG while playing 31.3 MPG over his last 4 appearances.

Potential Value

JaMychal Green ($5000/$4600) is another great value as he should see heavy minutes with ZBo likely out tonight. Patrick Patterson ($3800/$4300) is more of a true punt play with a solid floor at this position.

Longshot

Frank Kaminsky ($5200/$4700) will be worth a look in all formats with Marvin Williams out for the next couple weeks.

Centers

Two Studs

DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) @ WAS: DK:$10,100/FD:$10,000

Fresh off three straight monstrous games against the Thunder, Rockets and Nets, Cousins draws another good matchup tonight and he's worth paying up for if you can save big. Using him will probably require fading Russell Westbrook ($12,500/$12,000) at that exorbitant price tag, but there's a chance that Big Cuz approaches his production considering he's averaging 59.3 DK PPG (53.8 FD PPG) over his last three outings. Tonight he'll face a Wizards squad that is giving up the second-most RPG (16.91) to opposing centers this year and is overrated defensively, as they're ranked 27th in opponents FG shooting (.464%) on the season.

Marc Gasol (MEM) vs. CHA: DK:$6,700/FD:$7,000

We touched on it earlier, but let’s just reiterate how vital Gasol is to a shorthanded Grizzlies (-2) squad that is barely favored in a tough matchup at home tonight. He’s provided 2x value in three of his last four outings and has been reliable all season with averages of 17.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.9 APG and 35.3 DK PPG (33.1 FD PPG), while he remains relatively cheap on both main DFS sites. Tonight the Grizzlies are facing a Hornets squad that is extremely vulnerable in the paint with razor-thin center Roy Hibbert or natural PF Cody Zeller slated to guard Big Spain, so Gasol should be looking at another solid line against a team that coughs up the eighth-most FPPG (47.88) to opposing centers this year.

Potential Value

Cody Zeller ($4800/$4800) might have trouble guarding Gasol but he’s the Hornets best option at center.

Longshot

Jonas Valanciunas ($5700/$5900) could own the paint tonight with Embiid out for the 76ers.


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