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Plays of the Day
Value: Many DFSers might lean towards Glenn Robinson III as a value option with Paul George (ankle) and C.J. Miles (knee) both expected to miss another game tonight, but Stuckey is much cheaper on DK and he might even be a better option in this prime matchup. The Blazers are arguably the worst defensive team in the NBA, as they give up the second-most PPG (113.7) and rank dead last in defensive rating this year.
Fade: Jimmy Butler posted a monstrous line with 40 points when he visited L.A. last week, but that was with D-Wade inactive and Rajon Rondo hobbled. With both of his co-stars at full strength, it’s hard to justify paying up for Butler at that position with the Bulls (-10) heavily favored at home tonight.
Games to Target
- Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) hosting Washington Wizards (Over/Under = 213.5)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+5) hosting Sacramento Kings (Over/Under = 207.5)
John Wall (WAS) @ OKC DK:$9,300/FD:$9,200
There’s something to be said for stacking Wall with Russell Westbrook ($12,900/$12,600) if you can somehow afford the Thunder’s triple-double machine, but playing Wall as part of a more balanced lineup might be the way to go on this full state. The Wizards PG is also coming off a dubious triple double with 19 points, 11 assists and 11 turnovers in his last appearance, although he did grab 8 rebounds over 43 minutes of playing time and produced 50-plus DK points for the third time over his last four appearances. Wall’s playing time restrictions are usually a concern, but Washington only has two more games over the next five nights after this tilt, so he should be set loose in a premium PG matchup. Westbrook’s adversaries have stepped up all year, as OKC allows the third-most FPPG (47.99) to opposing PGs on the season, and Wall should rise to the challenge in this tough road test.
Andrew Harrison (MEM) @ TOR DK:$4,000/FD:$3,700
While the Grizzlies are looking for a veteran presence to bring in at PG with Mike Conley (absence) out for at least the next couple of months, they'll have no choice but to hand the keys to the offense over this rookie for the time being. Harrison has impressed while playing sporadic minutes at the 2 and 3 this year, but now he'll be tasked with the tough challenge of going head-to-head against Kyle Lowry in what will likely be his first start at PG. The 6-foot-6 Kentucky product has been piling up peripheral stats and he's averaging a solid 6.9 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 steals per 100 possessions this year. Even if he continues to struggle with his shot, Harrison should have no trouble exceeding value at this modest price tag.
Jameer Nelson ($4700/$4100) is playing a much bigger role with the Nuggets shorthanded and he could have another big game tonight.
Fresh off an impressive performance at Oracle Arena, Dennis Schroeder ($5900/$5600) draws one of the easiest matchups possible for a PG during a trip to Phoenix.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET) @ BOS: DK:$5,000/FD:$5,000
Completely underrated as one of the best two-way guards in the NBA today, KCP has earned the right to play huge minutes for the Pistons and that’s led directly to production in the box score. He’s averaging 16 PPG, 3.5 RPG and 4.2 APG over his last 6 appearances and was on pace for a huge line with 18-7-7 in Charlotte last night before the Pistons pulled their starters in a blowout win. Well rested ahead of a tough tilt at Boston’s TD Garden, he should be ready to log heavy minutes while chasing Avery Bradley on the defensive end and using his size advantage to score and rebound over AB on the other end. There are several reliable cash game plays in this price range tonight, but KCP might be the cheapest one that you can truly count on in a matchup that suits his grinding style.
Rodney Stuckey (IND) @ POR: DK:$3,900/FD:$4,000
Many DFSers might lean towards Glenn Robinson III as a value option with Paul George (ankle) and C.J. Miles (knee) both expected to miss another game tonight, but Stuckey is much cheaper on DK and he might even be a better option in this prime matchup. The Blazers are arguably the worst defensive team in the NBA, as they give up the second-most PPG (113.7) and rank dead last in defensive rating this year. Portland also coughs up the third-most FPPG (40.17) to opposing SGs with C.J. McCollum primarily concentrating on offense, and lacks the rim protection necessary to stop a slasher like Stuckey from getting to the cup. He's getting healthier and has produced 30 points with 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals while logging 42 minutes over his last two appearances, so give him a look for some salary relief.
Tony Allen ($4200/$4000) may see increased usage and playing time with Mike Conley out indefinitely. Avery Bradley ($6200) is under priced on DK while Bradley Beal ($7000) seems like a quality upper-tier option for cash games on FD.
Jamal Murray ($4500/$4100 as PG on FD) is another Nuggets guard to consider if Gallinari remains out in addition to Gary Harris and Will Barton.
Wilson Chandler (DEN) vs. MIA: DK:$7,000/FD:$6,400
Nothing against Jimmy Butler at the top of the board at SF, but I might try to pay up for Westbrook and/or DeMarcus Cousins rather than rolling with the Bulls star tonight. At a decent bargain, Chandler can provide nearly as much upside as Jimmy due to his rampant scoring streak. While Danilo Gallinari (thigh) practiced yesterday and appears to be on track to return tonight, the Nuggets are still going to lean on Chandler with Harris and Barton out and virtually no other scoring options on the perimeter. Miami is most vulnerable on the wing and that trend should continue if Luke Babbitt and Derrick Williams start at the 3 and 4 with Justise Winslow (wrist) out. With 57 points on 22-of-42 (53%) FG shooting over his last two appearances, Chandler is a confident player right now and you should be confident in using him.
Jae Crowder (BOS) vs. DET: DK:$5,500/FD:$5,200
Like the Trevor Ariza of the ECF, Crowder has always been of the best cash game plays out there and he’s a bit under priced since he was on a minutes limit after returning from an ankle sprain last week. Yet that restriction was lifted on Monday, and the fantastic two-way player responded with 17 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals over 32 minutes to help Boston win in Miami. Now he returns home to face a Pistons team that plays a slow, grinding style that is more conducive to his skill set than that of Isaiah Thomas for example. Crowder can produce FPs in a variety of ways and he should be considered a cash game lock even in a potentially low-scoring affair.
P.J. Tucker ($4300/$4100) started and played 42 minutes on Sunday, so he’ll clearly be worth a look as a safe play with T.J. Warren out indefinitely. Also consider Troy Williams ($4000/$3700) as part of the shorthanded Grizzlies.
He is truly boom or bust, but Robert Covington ($4600/$4500) has a chance to light up the Kings with a string of threes in a potential shootout tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) @ MIN: DK:$7,700/FD:$7,500
If you’re looking for consistency at this position, Porzingis is clearly the best option tonight. Paul Millsap is primed to break out at some point and Myles Turner has seen increased usage with Paul George out, but the Zinger has the best floor-ceiling combination of any PF in a solid matchup against the Wolves tonight. Minnesota ranks 23rd in defensive rating and 28th in opponents FG shooting (.472%) this year, while Porzingis is averaging 22.4 PPG on 48 percent shooting from the field over his last 6 appearances. He’s produced at least 34 DK points (32 FD points) in 8 consecutive starts and he should thrive in a relatively fast-paced game out west.
Ersan Ilaysova (PHI) vs. SAC: DK:$4,700/FD:$4,600
Playing Ersan has meant guaranteed production at a modest price tag over the past couple of weeks and that shouldn't really change until Nerlens Noel (knee) is ready to make his season debut sometime next month. The Sixers new PF is averaging 13.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 26.4 DK PPG over his last 6 appearances, and while that isn't exactly setting the world on fire, it's been good enough to exceed value in each of his last 5 games. Tonight he'll take on a weak Kings defense that is giving up the fifth-most FPPG (44.99) to opposing PFs this season and he should create mismatches whether he's taking hulking PF Kosta Koufos away from the basket or working down low against natural SF Matt Barnes.
JaMychal Green ($4700/$4400) disappeared in a blowout loss to Charlotte two nights ago but he’s still a solid value with Zach Randolph away from the team.
Gorgui Dieng ($6100/$6100) is a good mid-tier option in any format and there’s a decent chance that he approaches Porzingis’ production at a cheaper price tag.
DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) @ PHI: DK:$10,800/FD:$10,900
Cousins seems to be a superior option to Russell Westbrook just based on Westy's ridiculous cost tonight. Boogie has produced similar FP totals with averages of 33 PPG, 12.7 RPG and 61.25 DK PPG over his last 6 appearances, while he's obviously about $2K cheaper than Westbrook. He also draws one of the best matchups possible against a lowly 76ers defense that coughs up the sixth-most FPPG (48.4) and PPG (22.8) to opposing centers this year. While Joel Embiid should be active and ready to battle with Cousins down low, there have been no worthy challengers to Boogie's supremacy over the past couple of weeks and he's probably going to post another 30-plus point game with a full line.
Marc Gasol (MEM) @ TOR: DK:$7,100/FD:$7,000
It's possible to pair DeMarcus Cousins with one of the young studs at center (Towns, Whiteside, or even Andre Drummond) in GPPs, but Gasol seems like a slightly safer play at a cheaper price tag. Arguably the best passing big man and one of the best outside shooters, Big Spain will take over as the Grizzlies de facto floor general with Mike Conley (back) out indefinitely. Gasol is sporting a 28.9% Usage Rate and averaging 1.02 FP per minute with Conley off the floor over the last two seasons and Memphis will have to run most of their sets through the big man with both Conley and Zach Randolph potentially inactive for this road game.
Mason Plumlee ($5800/$5800) is always a steady option and he draws a great matchup tonight against Indiana.
Tyson Chandler ($4500/$4800) returned to a full workload on Sunday and produced a double double. He’ll be needed to battle with Dwight Howard in the paint tonight.