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Projecting Week 13 DFS Ownership Percentages

Cash in on DraftKings and FanDuel with Fantasy Football Expert Mark Morales Smith's projected ownership guide! This could separate the winners from the losers.

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Ownership percentages are something we must take into consideration when creating our tournament lineups. The reality is that you want to create a unique lineup so that you can differentiate yourself from the majority of the players and put yourself in the best possible position to win.

Projecting ownership is never easy, but you can give yourself an idea of who may or may not be a popular play each week by seeing who most analysts or writers are talking about. Twitter is another good source to gauge this information. Lastly, listening to podcasts can also give you an idea on the direction most people are headed. While none of the resources will give you an exact number, they certainly will paint a picture of where the crowd is headed. 

Below I’ll go over some of the highest owned players for this week based off of Fantasy Aces $3 Quick Slant that began on Thursday night and leads up until Monday. This tournament had 642 entrants. We will use this information to project potential ownership for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership

Drew Brees

28%

Colin Kaepernick

22%

Matthew Stafford

15%

Ryan Fitzpatrick

14%

Russell Wilson

14%

These quarterbacks make sense as the high-ownership options. However, there are some things I don't like. First and foremost, Brees' ownership is far too high. He's a high priced player, and his matchup isn't as favorable as people seem to believe. Yes, the Detroit Lions defense was atrocious early in the season. They couldn't stop any quarterbacks. Now, that's not the case anymore. Over the past five games, the Lions have not given up more than 20 points in a game. Brees is a special quarterback and will get his points, but he's not the steal people think he is. Kaepernick, on the other hand, has been red-hot from a Fantasy perspective, which is why his stock is up. Over the past four games, he has averaged 278 passing yards and 56 rushing yards per game with nine touchdowns, only one interception, and one fumble. He's also coming off a game in which he threw for 296 yards, ran for 113 yards and threw three TDs. Matthew Stafford has been consistently strong, and the New Orleans Saints defense is one to pick on. I would not start Ryan Fitzpatrick under any circumstance, even coming off his best game of the season. Fitz has been a disaster this season and is an interception away from being benched. The reward is not worth the risk, no matter who the matchup is. Excluding a terrible loss last week, the Seattle Seahawks offense has begun clicking on all cylinders and Wilson appears to be getting healthier as are Thomas Rawls and Tyler Lockett. I'm high on Wilson against the Carolina Panthers.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership

Philip Rivers

8%

Ben Roethlisberger

6%

Derek Carr

5%

Aaron Rodgers

5%

I love Rivers, Big Ben, and Carr as low ownership options this week. I like all of their matchups and quite frankly like all these quarterbacks as long as the matchup isn’t terrible. All of Rivers’ wide receivers being injured is a concern, but he still always seems to compile stats and throws often. Carr and Roethlisberger are almost always strong options. The Buffalo Bills and New York Giants don't scare me. I don't like Rodgers this week at all. He's an expensive option in the midst of a mediocre season with a tough matchup. I'm passing on him this week.

Running Backs

High Ownership - Chalk

Player

Ownership

Jordan Howard

33%

David Johnson

26%

Theo Riddick

24%

Carlos Hyde

23%

Howard is a no-brainer as is just about any running back facing the San Francisco 49ers' defense. It has also been made abundantly clear that he is the clear-cut RB1 in Chicago and they are going to run the ball as often as possible with Matt Barkley at quarterback. Johnson along with Le'Veon Bell are the two Fantasy running backs with the most upside, so his ownership can never be too high. Riddick is a reliable PPR option who can pick apart the Saints defense. His pass-catching ability matches up well with them and serves as their rushing attack often. Hyde is coming off strong back-to-back weeks, and the Bears are as thin as can be at linebacker. Every running back is a good option against them until they can prove otherwise.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership

Le’Veon Bell

17%

LeSean McCoy

15%

Melvin Gordon

14%

Kenneth Dixon

10%

Bell, McCoy, and Gordon are all high-end RB1s on a weekly basis. There is much to say about them. They are high priced which is why the ownership is low, but they’re all great Fantasy options. Dixon is the exciting player here. He goes up against an improving Miami Dolphins defense, who can still be susceptible to the run and pass-catching backs. The rookie slowly but surely cut into Terrance West's workload and this past week split the carries 50/50. I don't love him as a DFS option. Nevertheless, he's certainly becoming an intriguing player.

Wide Receivers

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership

Brandin Cooks

16%

Tyreek Hill

16%

Taylor Gabriel

13%

Marquess Wilson

11%

Davante Adams

11%

Doug Baldwin

11%

Amari Cooper

11%

Brandon Marshall

11%

Cooks has no business being the top owned wide receiver. He's coming off a zero catch game and had just 42 yards the week before. It's not that he's a bad option, I just don't like the mentality of his high ownership. He complained about his targets this week and faces the Lions' defense. That is not enough for me to boost him this high. I also wouldn't go with Brees so stacking him isn't a factor for me either. Hill and Gabriel are similar players. Quick athletes who can terrorize a defense. The upside is high, and the price is very reasonable. I like but don't love either. The Kansas Chiefs have been making more of an effort to get Hill the ball more often, while Gabriel is more dependent on breaking one big play. All the other guys are strong options except Marshall. He isn't worth his price tag anymore. Wilson is coming off a great week with Barkley at quarterback and Adams has come on strong. Baldwin and Cooper are both strong starts on a weekly basis.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership

Larry Fitzgerald

9%

Donte Moncrief

9%

Michael Thomas

8%

Mike Evans

8%

T.Y. Hilton

8%

This is another strong group of wideouts. Mike Evans is second to only Antonio Brown at this point in Fantasy Football and Fitz somehow turned back the clock last season. He’s kept that momentum going through this season. Thomas is a slightly better option than Cooks, however, both their ownership should be in this range. The $500 difference shouldn’t boost Cooks to the top. Both the Colts wideouts have high value. Against the New York Jets and old man Revis they should torch the once luxurious island. Both have a ton of upside.

Tight Ends

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership

C.J. Fiedorowicz

10%

Antonio Gates

8%

Travis Kelce

7%

Fiedorowicz is regularly near the top of ownership as is Gates. They have a reasonable price and somewhat high floor. Many people like saving money on tight ends and hope they can catch four or five passes and maybe one of them is a touchdown. Kelce is a star, though. He's by far the highest-upside option in this group.  

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership

Ladarius Green

5%

Eric Ebron

5%

Cameron Brate

5%

Green is expected to see a larger and larger workload. In that offense his upside is massive, so I like him while his price is still down. Ebron is coming off an awful game but should get back on track this week, especially with Marvin Jones banged up. Brate has a tough matchup. Nonetheless, I still view him as a strong option as one of Jameis Winston's favorite targets.


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