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Plays of the Day
Value: The 76ers should be without both of their starting centers in Joel Embiid (rest) and Jahlil Okafor (illness), which opens the door for Richaun Holmes to start and log big minutes. The unknown commodity already proved to be a great value play with Okafor out last night, as he produced 11 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks over just 18 minutes of run in a loss to Denver and now he faces a tired Grizzlies team.
Fade: John Wall has been playing on the second half of B2B sets, but he hasn’t really been playing well. The Wizards PG is averaging 22 PPG and 8 APG with a 28% Usage Rate on 0 days rest this year, which is much lower than is usual usage and indicates that he’s not exactly embracing the idea of playing two nights in a row. The Magic also allow the fewest DK PPG to opposing PGs this season.
Games to Target
- Miami Heat (-1) hosting New York Knicks (Over/Under = 203.5)
- Utah Jazz (+6.5) hosting Phoenix Suns (Over/Under = 203)
Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. NYK DK:$7,300/FD:$7,000
If you agree on fading Wall, then Dragic emerges as the next best option at this position tonight. He’s been playing an even bigger role for Miami with Dion Waiters (groin) and Josh Richardson (ankle) out over the past several games, as The Dragon is averaging 22 PPG, 9.5 APG and 43.5 DK PPG over his last 4 appearances. Tonight he faces a Knicks squad that coughs up the ninth-most PPG (106.5) despite playing at an average pace, as the Orange and Blue rank 27th in defensive rating this year. Derrick Rose has always had the reputation as a below average defender and he’s going to struggle to keep Dragic in front of him this evening.
Sergio Rodriguez (PHI) vs. MEM DK:$5,000/FD:$4,600
Jerryd Bayless (wrist) remains out and Sergio remains a very solid cash game play with moderate upside. The 32-year-old Spainard put up 17 points, 7 assists and 38.5 DK points to exceed value in his fifth consecutive game and tonight he’s facing a Grizzlies team that should be exhausted after battling for a 2OT win at New Orleans on Monday. He’ll likely face off with rookie Andrew Harrison, who played 40 minutes in that game, so the Grizzlies DvP numbers against opposing PGs can more or less be ignored in what should be another close game between these teams, as they also went into 2OT when they faced off on Thanksgiving Eve.
Andrew Harrison ($5300/$4300) is a very solid cash game play at that price tag on FanDuel.
Rajon Rondo ($6500/$6200) should return from a team-imposed suspension and look to prove that he’s still an asset to the Bulls. On the other side of the ball, Reggie Jackson ($5200/$6500) could put up numbers despite his minute restriction.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET) vs. CHI: DK:$5,700/FD:$5,700
While Bulls starting SG Dwyane Wade is expected to play tonight on the second half of a B2B set, you can’t necessarily trust him to follow up on last night’s impressive scoring performance or to play shutdown defense. KCP on the other hand, is working on ample rest and has been rolling right along with averages of 16.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 4.2 APG over his last 6 appearances. He’s one of the more reliable SGs on a nightly basis because of his steady run and role as an excellent wing defender, which ensures even more playing time for KCP in a matchup against Wade, Jimmy Butler and the Bulls tonight. Why pay up for a risky option at SG when you have a safer play in the mid-tier range?
Troy Daniels (MEM) vs. PHI: DK:$4,700/FD:$4,200
We can roll with Daniels for at least one more night after his price tag increased $500 on DK and didn’t move at all on FanDuel. The prolific shooter has dropped 60 points over his last two appearances and seen more minutes in each of his last four appearances to help the Grizzlies go on their current three-game winning streak. Tonight’s home tilt against the lowly 76ers is certainly a favorable matchup, and while some of the veterans on his team might be out of gas after a 2OT win last night, Daniels is just 25 years old and he’s playing like his NBA career depends upon it right now, as he probably won’t get a better opportunity to hoist 15-20 shots per game.
Tony Allen ($3900/$4400) is dirt cheap on DraftKings right now despite exceeding value by a wide margin last night. Wayne Ellington ($4200/$4300) will remain a low-upside value if Richardson and Waiters are still out for Miami.
Justin Holiday ($4500/$4100) has put up B2B solid games for the Knicks with Courtney Lee out.
Gordon Hayward (UTA) vs. PHO: DK:$8,200/FD:$8,100
You can trust Jimmy Butler as a cash game option if you can afford him, but I’m willing to fade most of the Bulls on the second half of a B2B set against the Pistons stingy defense. Hayward has been the main man for Utah offensively and he’s en fuego with averages of 27.7 PPG, 5 RPG, 3.5 APG and 43.3 DK PPG over his last 6 appearances. Tonight, his Jazz host a Suns team that gives up the second-most PPG (113.2) while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA and that pace should benefit a wing scorer like Hayward. He averaged 22.7 PPG on 48% FG shooting over 3 meetings with Phoenix last season and is seeing a lot more usage with Derrick Favors (knee) out indefinitely and George Hill (toe) in danger of missing tonight’s game as well.
P.J. Tucker (PHO) @ UTA: DK:$4,200/FD:$4,200
On the other side of the ball, Tucker should be tasked with trying to slow down Hayward while providing some offensive punch as the Suns starting SF. He’s been playing that role over their last 3 games with T.J. Warren (head) out indefinitely and is averaging 15.7 PPG, 6 RPG and 27.7 DK PPG during that span. Utah is a great defensive team and that’s even more the case when the Jazz are at home, but Tucker is a grinder who doesn’t necessarily need to score to produce FPs and he’s cheap enough to afford plenty of salary flexibility at other positions tonight.
Troy Williams ($4400/$4200) is still seeing steady run and meeting value for the shorthanded Grizzlies.
Kawhi Leonard ($7800/$8300) has been quiet for so long that his price tag has dropped significantly on DK, but tonight might be the time to pounce on him in a plus matchup at Minnesota.
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) @ MIA: DK:$8,000/FD:$7,600
The Zinger bounced back nicely from his first dud in a while last Friday to drop 15 points, 14 rebounds, 4 blocks and 44 DK points (39.8 FD points) in a win over Sacramento on Sunday. The uber-talented PF remains a matchup problem for all NBA teams, and the Heat definitely stands out as a plus matchup for him considering how they’ve been starting weak defender Josh McRoberts at PF lately. Porzingis put up great peripheral stats with 8.5 RPG and 2.9 BPG over 4 meetings with the Heat as a rookie last year and he’s become a much more dangerous offensive player since then.
Richaun Holmens (PHI) @ MEM: DK:$3,600/FD:$3,500
The 76ers should be without both of their starting centers in Joel Embiid (rest) and Jahlil Okafor (illness), which opens the door for Holmes to start and log big minutes. The unknown commodity already proved to be a great value play with Okafor out last night, as he produced 11 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks over just 18 minutes of run in a loss to Denver. Now he’ll face a tired Grizzlies team that might not be quite as stout defensively on the second half of a B2B, while opportunities should be ample for Holmes given the 76ers lack of depth up front in this particular game.
Ersan Ilyasova ($4600/$4600) should also see heavy run and increased usage for the 76ers with Embiid and Okafor out.
Serge Ibaka ($6300/$6500) has been a wildcard of sorts for Orlando this year but he has as much upside as any PF on this short slate.
Hassan Whiteside (MIA) vs. NYK: DK:$9,600/FD:$9,100
With very few expensive options at the other positions tonight, it makes sense to pay up for the center with the most upside on this slate. Whiteside is coming off another monstrous double double in which he produced 28 points, 16 boards and 5 blocks at Portland last Saturday and he should be well rested ahead of this plus matchup. The Knicks are giving up the seventh-most FPPG (48.13) and fifth-most PPG (22.58) to opposing centers this season as the acquisition of Joakim Noah has done little shore up their porous interior defense. Noah (ankle) is far from healthy during the second month of the season and backup center Kyle O’Quinn stands just 6-foot-10 with a limited wingspan next to Whiteside’s ridiculous 7-foot-7 wingspan, so the Heat big man should have another huge night at home.
Marc Gasol (MEM) vs. PHI: DK:$7,400/FD:$7,500
It’s entirely possible that Gasol gets the night off after logging 46 minutes and carrying the Grizzlies to a win with a triple double last night, but if he’s active, you have to consider the big man. Along with Tony Allen, he’s the only staple of this franchise still active and he’s really improved his outside shooting along with the rest of his already stellar game. Gasol is one of the best passing bigs in the league and he’s seeing much more usage with Mike Conley (back) out indefinitely, as he’s averaging 6.25 APG to go along with 22.5 PPG over his last 4 appearances. Tonight he faces a 76ers team that is giving up an above average 47.5 FPPG to opposing centers and is far worse defensively when Embiid rests, so Gasol should have his way down low once again.
Rudy Gobert ($6400/$6900) is still somewhat under priced on DK and he draws a plus matchup against the Suns.
Marcin Gortat ($6100/$6400) and Nikola Vucevic ($6100/$7400) are both worth consideration in a H2H matchup tonight, while Gortat provides a higher floor due to his steadier playing time.