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Plays of the Day
Value: Brandon Ingram predictably struggled against Utah's elite defense in his last outing, but prior to that dud, he was averaging 11.3 PPG and 22.8 DK PPG while logging 38.1 MPG over his previous 3 appearances. The Lakers have to roll with him now that Nick Young (calf) is out for about two weeks as well and tonight Ingram faces a Rockets team that gives up the most PPG (23.55) to opposing SFs this season.
Fade: Klay Thompson might be a popular play after erupting for 60 points over just 29 minutes on Monday, but I’m not touching him against a Clippers team that is ranked atop the league in defensive rating and gives up the fewest DK PPG to opposing SGs this season.
Games to Target
- Los Angeles Clippers (+4) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 225)
- Brooklyn Nets (+4.5) hosting Denver Nuggets (Over/Under = 223)
- Houston Rockets (-12.5) hosting Los Angeles Lakers (Over/Under = 221)
Chris Paul (LAC) vs. GSW DK:$8,800/FD:$9,100
The Clippers face the Warriors for this first time this season and they should put up a better fight than most teams have in recent weeks. While Steph Curry is one of several Golden State stars that could go off, the Clippers will simply not be competitive if CP3 doesn’t have a great game on both ends of the floor. That makes him a great GPP play tonight in the premier game to target and a good correlation play if you’re going to use Kevin Durant or chase points with Klay Thompson. Paul averaged 24 PPG, 5 RPG and 7.8 APG over 4 meetings with the Dubs last season and of course he battled Curry and produced 42 points, 15 assists and 6 steals in a fantastic performance to open the season three years ago. This is a rivalry game and it should bring out the best in both elite teams.
Goran Dragic (MIA) @ ATL DK:$7,300/FD:$7,000
His matchup is even more appealing than last night’s, and Dragic is going to see such an insane Usage Rate that makes it very tough to fade him in cash games. Miami is extremely shorthanded across the board with Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and James Johnson likely to miss another game tonight, so that makes both Dragic and Hassan Whiteside excellent plays as the Heat’s primary means of offensive production. The Dragon is averaging 23.4 PPG and 9 APG over 5 games since returning from an injured elbow and he’s sporting a 28.4% Usage Rate during that span. With a 34% Assist Rate on the season, Miami’s PG is putting up solid numbers across the board and it’s hard to imagine him falling short of value against a Hawks team that is giving up the second-most FPPG (49.88) to opposing PGs this season.
Dennis Schroder ($6100/$6200) is a very solid cash game play right now with Hawks star Paul Millsap (hip) well short of 100 percent. Another solid mid-tier play, Deron Williams ($5700/$5900) is producing as the Mavs sole healthy PG right now.
Elfrid Payton ($4400/$5100) came out of nowhere to blow up last night and he could carry that momentum into a plus matchup against injured Isaiah Thomas (groin) and the Celtics.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. POR DK:$9,800 as PG/FD:$10,200
Whether he's a PG or SG on your DFS site of choice, Antetokounmpo belongs in lineups of any format this evening. He's been on a tear lately with averages of 22.6 PPG, 10 RPG, 5 APG and 53.2 DK PPG over his last 5 appearances and he draws a fantastic matchup tonight against a Blazers team that is giving up the third-most PPG (112.4) and ranks dead last in defensive rating this season. Damian Lillard is not a capable defender and he certainly can't matchup up with the 6-foot-11 Greek Freak at just 6-foot-3, 195 pounds. Portland is giving up 22.59 PPG to opposing PGs and the third-most FPPG (40.66) to opposing SGs this season, while Giannis has carried the Bucks to a win over Cleveland and a one-point loss against San Antonio lately and is fully capable of leading his team to a home win over Portland.
Sean Kilpatrick (BKN) vs. DEN: DK:$6,000/FD:$5,700
The Nets were last seen playing another shootout on Monday, this time taking the Wizards down to the wire in a 118-113 loss. Along with Brook Lopez and Trevor Booker, Kilpatrick carried the offense to that competitive finish by hitting 8-of-12 FG attempts for an efficient 21 points in a relatively tough matchup. Now he'll face a weak Nuggets defense that coughs up the fifth-most PPG (106) and most FPPG (43.25) to opposing SGs this season, so he's a great option in another game that could go down to the wire in Brooklyn. Obviously James Harden is the premier play at this position, but mid-tier options in this game alone are worth a look with Kilpatrick and Nuggets swing man Will Barton ($6200/$6000) standing out as great tournament plays.
Wayne Ellington ($4300/$4300) is seeing heavy run with the rest of Miami’s backcourt banged up and he’s been a solid cash game play. Rodney McGruder ($3600/$4000) is also going to see plenty of minutes for the shorthanded Heat, but the rookie is a bit more of a risky option.
Lou Williams ($6100/$6100) is en fuego for the Lakers right now with 78 points over his last 2 appearances and he could thrive in a shootout with the Rockets tonight.
Kevin Durant (GSW) @ LAC: DK:$9,700/FD:$10,200
Durant’s price tag dropped on DK just in time for a perfect spot on the road against the ultra-competitive Clippers. The biggest impediment to his production continues to be blowout wins, as KD managed 20 points over just 22 minutes of playing time while Klay Thompson went supernova on Monday to demolish the Pacers at Oracle. That ends the Warriors five-game home stand and now they’ll face a Clippers team that is averaging 107.3 PPG and giving up just 94.7 PPG (+12.6 margin) at home. While the Dubs also sport an impressive +12.7 margin on the road, this is a game that should be competitive down to the fourth quarter and require the services of the un-guardable Durant. The Clippers can try to take away Curry and Thompson by sticking to their bodies, but KD is simply impossible to stop with his long wingspan and high release, so it’s possible that he carries the Warriors offense in this shootout.
Brandon Ingram (LAL) @ HOU: DK:$4,500/FD:$4,000
Ingram predictably struggled against Utah's elite defense in his last outing, but he still saw a standard 25 minutes of playing time and he's looking at an easy bounce back opportunity in tonight's matchup. Prior to that dud, Ingram was averaging 11.3 PPG and 22.8 DK PPG while logging 38.1 MPG over his previous 3 appearances and the Lakers have to roll with him now that Nick Young (calf) is out for about two weeks as well. Tonight Ingram faces a Rockets team that gives up the most PPG (23.55) to opposing SFs this season and plays with plenty of pace, so he stands out as a very solid value play in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Aaron Gordon ($4200/$4000) has seen spiked production in recent games and he faces a Celtics team that is just awful in terms of rebounding for the third consecutive year.
Paul George ($7800/$8300) is very cheap on DK and he’ll be worth a look in GPPs against a Suns team that leads the league in pace.
Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. GSW: DK:$8,600/FD:$9,400
All three of these players are a bit under priced on DK tonight, so I might use Paul, Durant and Griffin as the foundation for cash game lineups and fill in the rest of the positions from there. As long as the Clippers and Warriors play a close game tonight, those players will be very productive, and Griffin comes into this potential WCF Preview on a bit of a hot streak. He’s produced 51 points, 26 rebounds, 9 assists and 108 DK points over his last 2 appearances while logging just 34 MPG in those contests, but HC Doc Rivers might let his starters leave it all out on the floor in this litmus test tonight. Draymond Green is a feisty defender (and recognized dirty player), but Blake is still averaging 24.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG and 5.1 APG over his last 5 regular season meetings with the Warriors and he’s clearly a premier play tonight.
Dwight Powell (DAL) @ SAC: DK:$4,100/FD:$3,800
Powell is a punt play with some upside as he continues to gain confidence for the Mavericks. Dallas is coming to terms with the idea that Dirk Nowitzki (achilles) may not be able to return at all this season and oft-injured center Andrew Bogut (knee) is going to be out for at least two weeks as well. That's opened the door for Powell to produce 32 points, 15 rebounds and 53.75 DK points while playing 60 minutes over his last 2 appearances. Tonight he might have the unenviable task of trying to guard DeMarcus Cousins, but he should be able to produce offensively against a Kings team that coughs up the fourth-most FPPG (45.72) to opposing PFs this season.
Josh McRoberts ($3300/$3600) is close to the minimum on both main DFS sites and he’s seeing a big spike in playing time with so many Heat players injured.
Trevor Booker ($5900/$5900) is a solid mid-tier option to consider in any format against the Nuggets tonight. Julius Randle ($6000/$6100) has had big games against the Rockets in the past and he’s worth a look if you want to stack that game.
Hassan Whiteside (MIA) @ ATL: DK:$9,200/FD:$8,900
With so many of Miami’s players injured, paying up for Whiteside seems like a very easy decision, especially when he’s not particularly pricey. He’s coming off a second consecutive monster double double and is facing a Hawks team with a solid defensive reputation, yet he managed to burn Dwight Howard and company for 19 points, 25 rebounds and 58.75 DK points in an earlier meeting this season. He’s played 41 and 38 minutes without a heavy Usage Rate in either of his last 2 appearances, so the fact that he’s still been able to score 51 points speaks to his efficiency as well as his potential if Miami makes an effort to get its young stud involved early in another battle with Howard.
Al Horford (BOS) @ ORL: DK:$6,700/FD:$7,700
If you believe in redemption stories and live on #NarrativeStreet, you might be willing to roll with the volatile Horford after he blew a wide open lay-up to cost the Celtics a road win in Houston on Monday. He still turned in a great line with 21 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists and 46.5 DK points in that contest and tonight he faces a Magic team that’s been pathetic in terms of their low post defense. Orlando coughs up the eighth-most FPPG (47.9) and fifth-most RPG (15.48) to opposing centers this season while offensive-minded Nikola Vucevic is basically ushering his man to the rim. Horford has been up-and-down in DFS terms since rejoining the Celtics lineup, but he’s worth a look in GPP formats as a somewhat under priced option on DK.
Both John Henson ($4700/$4700) and Greg Monroe ($4100/$4800) are viable value plays in a timeshare as Milwaukee’s centers. Salah Mejri ($3000/$3500) is a longshot as a true punt play to consider with Bogut out for Dallas.
DeAndre Jordan ($6300/$6800) is an intriguing target in a track meet with the Warriors tonight, as Golden State coughs up the third-most RPG (15.65) to opposing centers this year.