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Plays of the Day
Value: With Jrue Holiday (toe) questionable to suit up tonight and E’Twaun Moore also battling a toe injury, Langston Galloway and Tim Frazier could become very good value plays once again. Frazier produced 8 points, 9 assists and 30.5 DK points (28.3 DK points) over 39 minutes of playing time against Memphis with both of those players out on Monday and he’s sporting a 21.8% Usage rate and averaging 0.72 FPs per minute with both Holiday and Moore off the court this year.
Fade: Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard are both excellent offensive players, but they’re both top 5 defenders in the NBA and they might spend extended periods guarding each other tonight. That makes both of them potential fades in what could be a low-scoring affair between two physical teams.
Games to Target
- Utah Jazz (+7.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 211)
- Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5) hosting Portland Blazers (Over/Under = 204.5)
John Wall (WAS) vs. DEN DK:$9,500/FD:$9,800
Wall certainly proved us wrong by dropping a career-high 52 points on the second half of a B2B set earlier this week, so clearly he’s healthy, which makes him the PG with the most upside on this short slate. His Wizards should respond from his not-so-subtle criticism after they somehow managed to lose that last game to the Magic, and they’re facing a Nuggets squad that is giving up the fifth-most PPG (109.3) and is ranked 23rd in defensive rating this season. Denver allows the third-most FPPG (47.87) to opposing PGs this year and the Nuggets are coming off a comeback attempt in Brooklyn last night, so their defense might be a step slow tonight.
Tim Frazier (NO) vs. PHI DK:$5,600/FD:$4,900
With Jrue Holiday (toe) questionable to suit up tonight and E’Twaun Moore also battling a toe injury, Frazier could become a very safe play at this price tag once again. He produced 8 points, 9 assists and 30.5 DK points (28.3 DK points) over 39 minutes of playing time against Memphis with both of those players out on Monday and he would likely draw the start if Holiday can’t go this Thursday. Frazier is sporting a 21.8% Usage rate and averaging 0.72 FPs per minute with both Holiday and Moore off the court this year and he’s been a big part of the Pelicans offense regardless with a 36.4% Assist Rate while he’s out there this season. He would make for a very solid cash game in a fantastic matchup against the Sixers if Holiday is still inactive.
Langston Galloway ($3800/$3900 as SG on FD) will also remain a fantastic value if the Hornets are still missing Holiday and/or Moore.
Ricky Rubio ($4900/$5500) is temptingly cheap on DK and he’s playing enough minutes to exceed value quite easily in a plus matchup tonight. Also consider Patty Mills ($4700/$4300) with Tony Parker likely out tonight.
C.J. McCollum (POR) @ MEM DK:$6,600/FD:$7,400
While seeing “at Memphis” can look intimidating, this could be a game to stack tonight given how the Grizzlies are struggling defensively lately and how consistently the Blazers cough up production to opposing offenses. Memphis (-1.5) is barely favored at home with a relatively high 205.5-point Over/Under that I would expect to go over given how shorthanded the Grizzlies are in the backcourt and how dangerous Portland’s guards can be in the right matchups. McCollum is certainly capable of torching rookie Andrew Harrison or virtual rookie Troy Daniels should one of them match up against him, as he’s been averaging 22.2 PPG and 5.2 APG over his last 5 appearances against much tougher defenses. The Grizzlies actually cough up the fourth-most PPG (24.17) to opposing SGs this season, so CJM might be worth his price tag on FanDuel given his pure upside as a scorer.
Tony Allen (MEM) vs. POR: DK:$4,300/FD:$4,800
I’d be willing to roll with Allen’s teammate Troy Daniels ($4800/$4700) in tournaments for sure, but the combination of his rising price tag and his lack of peripheral stats makes the pure shooter a riskier option. The Grindfather remains a solid option with Mike Conley out indefinitely and Memphis missing either option to start at SF in Chandler Parsons or James Ennis. Allen is averaging 11 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG and 25.5 DK PPG while playing 28.1 MPG over his last 5 appearances and he’s established a floor of 19 DK points over his last 7 appearances. Portland coughs up the third-most PPG (112.5) and is ranked dead last in defensive rating, so we should see plenty of production from players in a Grizzlies uniform this evening.
Nik Stauskas ($3900/$3700) is seeing increased opportunities with Robert Covington (knee) on the shelf for Philly.
Will Barton ($6600/$5700) is still pretty affordable on FanDuel and he draws a great matchup tonight against Washington’s weak perimeter defense.
Kevin Durant (GSW) @ UTA: DK:$9,300/FD:$10,000
The Warriors top three scorers all had mediocre games last night, and they still managed to destroy a supposed title contender in the Clippers. They’ll stay on the road tonight, but will have a much tougher time breaking the spirit of a feisty Jazz team that plays excellent team defense and gave the Dubs a great fight in a 106-103 loss at Salt Lake City last November as well as a 103-96 loss in OT last March. While Utah has great defensive metrics, Durant is not a player that can be stopped by a defensive scheme or by mediocre individual defender Gordon Hayward. He only came up short of value last night because he missed several open shots, so you can expect KD to bounce back at a continually dropping price tag on DK.
Gordon Hayward (UTA) vs. GSW: DK:$8,600/FD:$8,100
As a much more affordable option on FanDuel, Hayward is worth a look in any format if you agree that the Jazz will show more backbone than the Clippers did last night. He went for 24 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists when the Warriors visited Utah last season and he’s playing much better this season while taking advantage of increased opportunities. With George Hill, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors off the floor this season, Hayward leads the Jazz with a 33.1% Usage Rate and he’s been averaging 28.3 PPG on 49% FG shooting over his last 6 appearances with those players inactive for the most part. Hayward will have to take on a lot of responsibilities on the offensive end tonight and he could have a big game against a Warriors team that gives up the most DK PPG to opposing SFs this season.
Maurice Harkless ($5000/$5200) has been producing for the Blazers despite the return of Al-Farouq Aminu from a calf injury.
Joe Johnson ($4400/$3600) is a cheap tournament option to consider with the Jazz potentially missing both Hill and Hood tonight.
Anthony Davis (NO) vs. PHI: DK:$11,800/FD:$11,900
His price tag remains an albatross around the neck of DFS owners, but Davis is the sole decadent option on this short slate and he’s probably worth paying up for in some lineups if possible. The 76ers are better defensively when Joel Embiid plays, and The Process should be active tonight, but Davis is still going to go to work on a Philly team that coughs up the sixth-most FPPG (48.24) to opposing centers this year. The Brow has been transcendent at home with averages of 35.2 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 2.7 BPG and 65.4 DK PPG while he’s averaging just 49 DK PPG on the road this season. He’s posted a Usage Rate over 30% in 14 of his last 15 appearances and is bound to put up more shots if Jrue Holiday (toe) can’t play again tonight.
Ersan Ilyasova (PHI) @ NO: DK:$5,700/FD:$5,300
While you can’t expect Ilyasova to go to work on Anthony Davis on the low block, he should still be able to follow up his 23-point, 17-rebound performance on Tuesday with a solid game tonight. The Pelicans actually give up the fourth-most FPPG (45.82) to opposing PFs this season, as Davis is forced to slide over to opposing centers, and he should battle with Joel Embiid tonight. Ilyasova is also able to step outside and hit jumpers, which could potentially move him away from the long arm of Davis and allow him to maintain value. He’s been solid for weeks and is averaging 15.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 31.9 DK PPG over his last 5 appearances and he could exceed value once again if this game stays close late.
Zach Randolph ($5300/$5800) was extremely efficient in his return to the Grizzlies lineup and he should remain motivated in a matchup against his former team.
Boris Diaw ($3400/$3700) is a boom-or-bust option for the Jazz, but he sees a huge increase in usage when Hill, Hood and Favors are all inactive and that could be the case tonight.
Marc Gasol (MEM) vs. POR: DK:$7,700/FD:$8,200
The Grizzlies have been hit hard by injuries, but Big Spain is putting the team on his back and carrying them to close wins recently. He notably produced a triple double in a 2OT win over the Pelicans on Monday and surprisingly toughed it out to produce 26 points, 12 rebounds and 51 DK points the following night on 0 days rest to help Memphis put away the 76ers. With a full day of rest, Gasol should be ready to work against a Blazers team that is awful defensively and very vulnerable down low, as they’re giving up 47.28 FPPG, 22.67 PPG and 15.05 RPG to opposing centers this season. He’s sporting a 27.4% Usage Rate and 36.6% Assist Rate over his last 3 appearances and he should thrive in a plus matchup tonight.
Rudy Gobert (UTA) vs. GSW: DK:$6,700/FD:$7,300
I would recommend Gobert at this price tag on DK and Joel Embiid ($6600) at a similar price tag on FD tonight. Both talented young big men draw plus matchups, while Gobert is a very good bet for a double double if the Jazz can hang with the Warriors for at least three quarters. Golden State coughs up the third-most RPG (15.76) to opposing centers this season because the Dubs play at a blinding pace, and we saw last night how their small ball lineups leave them vulnerable to an elite offensive rebounder like DeAndre Jordan. Gobert is just as lengthy as DAJ and he’s been rolling with averages of 13.5 PPG, 13.3 RPG and 3.3 BPG over his last 6 appearances, so give him a look as a somewhat contrarian play given the reputations of these two teams.
Nikola Jokic ($5000/$5100 as PF on FD) was a man in his return to the Nuggets lineup last night and he could roll if given more minutes tonight. Mason Plumlee ($5200/$6000) may not be able to score on Gasol too often, but he’s a great passer and rebounder, which makes him a solid cash game play at that price on DK.
Pau Gasol ($5000/$6000) is worth a look in tournaments as he makes his return to Chicago tonight.