Projecting Week 14 DFS Ownership Percentages

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Ownership percentage is one of the things that we must take into consideration when creating out tournaments lineups. The reality is that you want to create a unique lineup so that you can differentiate yourself from the majority of the players and put yourself in the best possible position to win a big tournament.

Projecting ownership is never easy, but you can give yourself an idea of who may or may not be a popular play each week by seeing who most analyst or writers are talking about. Twitter is another good source to gauge this information. Lastly, listening to podcasts can also give you an idea on the direction most people are headed. While none of the resources will give you an exact number, they certainly will paint the picture of where the crowd is headed.

Below I’ll go over some of the highest owned players for this week based off of Fantasy Aces $3 Quick Slant that began on Thursday night and leads up until Monday. This tournament had 394 entrants. We will use this information to project potential ownership for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

High Ownership - Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Andrew Luck

19%

Robert Griffin

18%

Kirk Cousins

18%

Jameis Winston

15%

There are several quarterbacks on the list above that I believe will be popular this weekend. Andrew Luck faces a Texans defense that he totaled 300 yards on earlier this season and scored two touchdowns. Houston has given up 252.8 passing yards per game and has thrown ten touchdowns in their last four games, so have shown some signs of weakness. Luck’s price, specifically on DraftKings, is just too low and that in itself will generate interest. Kirk Cousins has topped 25 fantasy points in four of his last six games, including two 30+ fantasy point outings. During that stretch, he has thrown for 300 passing yards four times, including two 400+ yard games and 12 touchdown passes. He remains reasonably priced this week and gets a favorable matchup. Jameis Winston is in a good spot against a subpar Saints defense this week. He has been very rocky this season but has displayed plenty of upside throughout the year. This matchup also projects to be the highest scoring which typically receives attention.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Matthew Stafford

8%

Eli Manning

5%

Tom Brady

3%

Aaron Rodgers

2%

Tom Brady plays on Monday night, so his ownership will be dependent on the slate you play. That being said, this is not the bests of matchups for him. However, he is Brady and can get it done even in the toughest spots. In tournaments, I would be willing to give him a whirl as he has 30+ fantasy points upside and will be ridiculously low owned. One of the first quarterbacks this week that stood out to me was Matthew Stafford because he was at home, indoors, and has a good matchup. Before his last game against them in Week 4, he had thrown seven passing touchdowns against the Bears in their previous two matchups, so he has had success against them. I has him projected at the 8 to 12 percent range, so this ownership percentage seems about right. Eli Manning is another quarterback I am keen on this week. He is just very underpriced and has thrown multiple touchdowns in five consecutive games. Not to mention, he has done fairly well against the Cowboys in recent history.

Running Back

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

David Johnson

36%

Le’Veon Bell

24%

Spencer Ware (Thu)

22%

Jordan Howard

18%

Latavius Murray (Thu)

17%

LeSean McCoy

16%

To no one's surprise, David Johnson was the most popular running back of Thursday night's slate, and that should be the case over the weekend too. After all, he is averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game and continues to post up big numbers on a weekly basis. Le’Veon Bell being popular is also not a shocker as he too is a model of consistency and offers plenty of upside with a high floor. People are finally catching up about playing this duo and taking advantage of value at other positions. They are both going to be popular this weekend. There is one back that I will discuss below that I believe will be very popular this weekend that was not that highly owned in this tournament on Aces.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Jeremy Hill

11%

Ezekiel Elliott

10%

DeMarco Murray

10%

Theo Riddick

7%

Thomas Rawls

5%

Jeremy Hill could be more popular this weekend than he was on Thursday. He faces a Browns defense that is atrocious and one that he has torched in the past, including earlier this season. Also, he is reasonably priced considering the situation. I have him projected at 15 to 18 percent. I also think that Ezekiel Elliott will receive much more attention than he did on Thursday night. The matchup is not the most appealing, but that has not stopped him from posting huge numbers in the past, and he is the cheapest of the top three backs this week. I have him at 16 to 20 percent in my projections. DeMarco Murray was 10 percent owned in this tournament, but I think he will be below 8 percent simply because people see Broncos and get scared. However, the way to attack the Denver defense is with a running back. I like Murray quite a bit for tournaments this week because of the low ownership and volume he should get. It is also a bonus that he is coming off of a bye week so should be well rested.

Wide Receiver

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Tyrell Williams

24%

T.Y. Hilton

22%

Amari Cooper (Thu)

19%

Mike Evans

16%

This list makes a lot of sense to me. Tyrell Williams has been playing well and gets a good matchup, as well as, he is affordable. However, I do not have him projected this high owned and do not think he will be the most popular play, but he should be one of the most popular plays. T.Y. Hilton is the receiver I believe will get the bulk of the attention this week. He has done well in recent weeks and gets a Texans defense that is struggling against receivers recently, making this a perfect storm. I would not be surprised to see him above 20 percent owned this weekend. Mike Evans against the Saints seems self-explanatory, and the general public will take notice of this too. I had him projected at 16-18 percent and think it will be close to that range after seeing Thursday night's list.  

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Doug Baldwin

11%

Golden Tate

9%

Larry Fitzgerald

6%

Odell Beckham

5%

I chose the receivers above because aside from Larry Fitzgerald. I have all three of the other receivers projected a tad higher than they were in this tournaments. Fitzgerald I anticipate will be low owned and I think makes for a great leverage play to the popular David Johnson. Doug Baldwin gets the Packers this week who have struggled against receivers. He is also at a reasonable price tag, making him an enticing play. I have him projected at 14 to 17 percent. Golden Tate gets a good matchup as well and has played very well as of late, so I had him in my projections at 18 to 20 percent. Lastly, Odell Beckham, who has been playing at a high level since coming off of his bye week. Currently, I have him at 16 to 18 percent but have considered knocking him down to 14 to 16 percent range. That being said, I still think he will be in the mid-teen range when it comes to ownership this weekend.

Tight End

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Travis Kelce (Thu)

14%

Antonio Gates

11%

Tyler Eifert

11%

Ladarius Green

10%

Aside from Kelce who played on Thursday, all the other tight ends on this list will generate attention this week, but ultimately I believe that Ladarius Green will get the majority of the ownership simply because of the price point and what he did last week. I have him at 15 to 18 percent, while I have both Antonio Gates and Tyler Eifert at 4 to 8 percent.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Jason Witten

4%

Jimmy Graham

4%

I think Jason Witten will be a bit more popular than he was on Thursday because of his price and history against the Giants. That is why I have him at 8 to 10 percent on my projections. However, I do think Jimmy Graham is going overlooked in a favorable situation, which is why he is an enticing tournament play this week.


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