Scouting The NBA DFS - Sunday, December 11

We break down tonight's 5-game slate of NBA action to help you cash in DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Kyle O’Quinn is trending up in terms of his playing time and that’s translated to production with averages of 9.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.7 BPG over his last 6 appearances. He’s produced 22-plus DK points in 5 consecutive outings and seems like a very solid option against a weak Lakers defense tonight.

Fade: Draymond Green has led the Warriors in each of their last two games in terms of per dollar value, but he might slow down in a fast-paced matchup against the Wolves. Minnesota loves to get up and down the floor and that might benefit Steph Curry and Kevin Durant more than a grinder like Green.

Games to Target

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) hosting Boston Celtics (Over/Under = 209.5)
  2. Minnesota Wolves (+10.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 223)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. BOS DK:$12,400/FD:$12,600

This isn’t one of the nights to fade Westbrook. Maybe you could go cheaper with Steph Curry, but after him, the talent-level at the PG position falls off a cliff with limited upside coming from most of the players on the board. While he eeked his way to a seventh consecutive triple double on Friday night, Westbrook could easily post that statistical achievement against a Celtics team that is much worse defensively this year and is particularly vulnerable against athletic guards. Even with Isaiah Thomas (groin) replaced by superior defenders in Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier, you can trust Westy to put up numbers at home tonight.

Terry Rozier (BOS) @ OKC DK:$4,100/FD:$4,200

If basketball is a meritocracy, then Rozier should be earning more and more minutes with his stellar play. He was basically the lone bright spot in the second half on Friday when the Celtics fell apart against a full-strength Raptors squad, and he should be able to exceed value once again while facing the fast-paced Thunder. Oklahoma City allows the fourth-most FPPG (46.84) to opposing PGs this season, as Westbrook consistently exhausts himself on the offensive end, and Rozier will likely be working against Victor Oladipo and the Thunder’s second unit. If the Celtics fall apart again without their leading scorer in IT4, Rozier will still lap it up down the stretch in garbage time, so he’s one of the safer values on the board tonight.

Potential Value

Tim Frazier ($5700/$4900) just had a huge game with Anthony Davis (rest) inactive and he’ll be worth a look in a fantastic matchup against the Suns if Jrue Holiday (toe) remains out.

Longshot

Eric Bledsoe ($7800/$8400) has flashed upside in the right matchups lately and he’ll look to lead the Suns against a weak Pelicans defense tonight.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Avery Bradley (BOS) @ OKC DK:$6,400/FD:$6,700

It’s a double-edged sword for Bradley with Isaiah Thomas out for the Celtics. While he’s seeing increased usage and knocking down a high percentage of his shots, the defense is also able to key in on AB as he becomes the main offensive threat from Boston. Yet he’s still worth a look tonight against a Thunder team that packs the paint and dares teams to beat them from the perimeter. Bradley is one of the most improved shooters in the NBA this year with a mark of 47.7% from the field and 42.5% (51-of-120) from downtown, and he’s been very consistent with averages of 17.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 34.6 DK PPG that are pretty much in line with his production now that Thomas is inactive.

Langston Galloway (NO) @ PHO: DK:$4,300/FD:$4,100

While Galloway only met value with 17.75 DK points (15.5 FD points) last night, that production came against the Clippers top-ranked defense and came without Anthony Davis drawing the defense towards the interior. Tonight the Pelicans face a Suns team that plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and ranks 25th in defensive rating while coughing up the second-most PPG (113) this season. Davis is also expected to return to the lineup and he should roast Phoenix down low, while Galloway and Tim Frazier continue to do the heavy lifting in the backcourt if Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore both remain out.

Potential Value

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5200/$5700) should serve as an excellent cash game play with the Pistons hosting the hapless 76ers tonight.

Longshot

Lou Williams ($7100/$6300) is certainly worth paying up for in GPP formats since he’s on fire, but I have a little more respect for the Knicks defense than the last few opponents he’s faced.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kevin Durant (GSW) @ MIN: DK:$9,300/FD:$10,200

You probably won’t way to pay over $10K for Durant on FanDuel, but it’s easy to pounce on that price tag on DraftKings when you look at his floor-ceiling combination. The Warriors were stunningly blown out in Memphis last night, but KD did his part by dropping 21 points with his standard efficiency (7-of-13 from the floor) over 31 minutes before getting some rest ahead of this game. Now he’ll face a Wolves team that ranks 28th in defensive rating and coughs up the fifth-most PPG (20.95) to opposing SFs this season. The Warriors (-10.5) have been on one end of the beating stick or the other over the last few games, which clearly diminishes his upside, but KD could go off in a road game against a talented offensive team that could give the Dubs a test.

Carmelo Anthony (NYK) @ LAL: DK:$7,600/FD:$7,700

Anthony remains a tournament option with his spikes in production, but he’s definitely a little more appealing than usual given tonight’s matchup. The pop culture star is travelling to La La Land to play in front of a star-studded crowd on a Sunday night at Staples Center and he averaged 25 PPG and 10 RPG over 2 meetings with the Lakers last season. Melo just dropped 33 points to lead the Knicks to a win over Sacramento on Friday night and now he faces a team that plays at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA while coughing up the fourth-most PPG (110.7) this season. The Lakers give up the eighth-most FPPG (40.75) to opposing SFs as well and might be forced to start rookie Brandon Ingram against a much-stronger Anthony.

Potential Value

If D’Angelo Russell can’t make his return tonight, keep using Brandon Ingram ($4400/$4400) as a reliable value play.

Longshot

Andre Roberson ($4300/$4100) blew up by his standards and he might have success in a grindfest against the Celtics tonight. Andrew Wiggins ($6000/$6200) could serve as a correlation play if you’re paying for Curry or Durant tonight.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Anthony Davis (NO) @ PHO: DK:$11,200/FD:$12,200

With Russell Westbrook on the board tonight and half the field still feeling the sting of Anthony Davis’ latest horrible betrayal of the DFS community, his ownership rate should be very, very low in this fantastic matchup. Davis was already not very trustworthy and resting on the front end of a B2B without any warning should put him on people’s “Never Again” list. Yet that opens the opportunity for some DFSers to deploy the Brow in a blowup spot against the Suns 25th-ranked defense, as Phoenix coughs up plenty of production to opposing PFs and centers on the season. Davis averaged 24.7 PPG and 16 RPG over 3 meetings with Phoenix last year despite dealing with all his injuries and he had a solid game with 22 points and 10 boards when he faced the Suns last month. At the very least, playing The Brow should put you on an island in tournaments.

Ersan Ilyasova (PHI) @ DET: DK:$5,900/FD:$5,600

We have to put some respect on his name, because Ghostface Ilya is killing the opposition and exceeding value regardless of whether Joel Embiid rests or plays for the Sixers. The sharpshooting PF is averaging 17.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 35.6 DK PPG over his last 5 appearances and he’s averaging 34.3 MPG over his last 4 outings. While the Pistons are a highly-ranked defense that has been stingy against opposing PFs, they’re mostly solid on the interior with their physicality down low, but Ilyasova can step away from the basket and still put up numbers in this tough matchup.

Potential Value

Richaun Holmes ($3700/$4000) could log plenty of minutes alongside Ilyasova tonight with Emiid (elbow) not expected to play.

Longshot

Kristaps Porzingis ($7300/$7400) is going to heat up again at some point and facing the Lakers provides a good spot for him to find his rhythm.

Centers

Two Studs

Andre Drummond (DET) vs. PHI: DK:$8,000/FD:$8,400

His production seems to come in waves and Drummond is crashing the boards right now on his way to consecutive 20-20 games. He’s doubled the value of his price tag with 50+ FPs in each of those appearances and tonight he draws a dream matchup against a Sixers team that would have the worst defensive rating in the NBA if Joel Embiid never took the floor this season. Embiid is expected to sit tonight with elbow inflammation, so Drummond could easily have another huge game if the Pistons don’t wind up running away early. Roll him out there and pray that the 76ers find enough offense to force a full slate of minutes out of Mr. Drummond.

Kyle O’Quinn (NYK) @ LAL: DK:$4,200/FD:$4,700

If you think the Pistons will win easily and the Warriors will do a good job on Karl-Anthony Towns, just use a pure value play at the center position and try to fit Westbrook into your lineups with another star or two. O’Quinn is trending up in terms of his playing time and that’s translated to production with averages of 9.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.7 BPG over his last 6 appearances. He’s produced 22-plus DK points in 5 consecutive outings and seems like a very solid option against a weak Lakers defense tonight.

Potential Value

Joakim Noah ($3600/$4400) is sharing time with O’Quinn and he’s a little more risky, but obviously he can offer even more salary relief than the wide-bodied center.

Longshot

Jahlil Okafor ($5000/$4900) will get a chance to operate against a shoddy defender in Drummond and he should see more minutes with Embiid out.


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