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Projecting Week 15 DFS Ownership Percentages

Cash in on DraftKings and FanDuel with Fantasy Football Expert Armando Marsal's projected ownership guide! This could separate the winners from the losers.

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Ownership percentage is one of the things that we must take into consideration when creating out tournaments lineups. The reality is that you want to create a unique lineup so that you can differentiate yourself from the majority of the players and put yourself in the best possible position to win a big tournament.

Projecting ownership is never easy, but you can give yourself an idea of who may or may not be a popular play each week by seeing who most analyst or writers are talking about. Twitter is another good source to gauge this information. Lastly, listening to podcasts can also give you an idea on the direction most people are headed. While none of the resources will give you an exact number, they certainly will paint the picture of where the crowd is headed.

Below I’ll go over some of the highest owned players for this week based off of Fantasy Aces $3 Quick Slant that began on Thursday night and leads up until Monday. This tournament had 388 entrants. We will use this information to project potential ownership for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

High Ownership - Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Kirk Cousins

34%

Sam Bradford

18%

Joe Flacco

17%

I was somewhat surprised when I saw the Aces ownerships as I did not see Matt Ryan, who I will talk about below. Kirk Cousins plays on Monday night, so he will not be available on the main slate, which is why I think we will see other quarterbacks a tad more popular. I do think that whatever slate Cousins is in, he will be one of the higher owned quarterbacks in those tournaments. I get that Sam Bradford close to minimum price across the industry and has a good matchup, but I have him projected at a much lower ownership simply because he has been bad for just about the entire season. I have him at 1-3 percent and do not expect people to be on him this week. I have heard a lot of buzz about Joe Flacco this week, and I can see why. The Eagles secondary is mediocre, and Flacco has put together two strong performances in a row. That being said, I still have him projected at about 5-8 percent because of some of the other options I will talk about below.

Lower Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Matt Ryan

11%

Derek Carr

11%

Aaron Rodgers

3%

Carson Palmer

3%

Dak Prescott

2%

Before I begin on these quarterbacks, I will admit that I think the ownership of this position will be spread out a tad more this week. That being said, in my opinion, Matt Ryan will be one of the higher owned quarterbacks of this week, especially on the main slate. He draws a great matchup; the Falcons have the highest implied team total, and he is having quite the season. In my projections, I have him at 12-18 percent. Derek Carr is another quarterback that should generate attention this week against the Chargers. He is coming off of a poor performance, his worst of the season, but was playing well before that and has displayed his upside numerous times this season. The Chargers are not an imposing defense and have shown vulnerability against the pass. I have Carr projected at 10-14 percent.  I am trying to figure out why Aaron Rodgers was so low owned in this contest and still have not put the pieces of the puzzle together. I mean, maybe it is because of his calf injury and people did not want to risk the potential of him sitting. However, if he is active like he is expected to be, Rodgers should see plenty of attention against the broken Bears team. Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight straight games and has topped 25 fantasy six times during that stretch. If you can get that type of production at sub 10 percent ownership, sign me up. I have him projected at 10-15 percent. Dak Prescott is someone I have been talking about all week. He is going overlooked and in a great bounce back spot. He is someone I am keen on in tournaments for that reason. I have him sub-five percent in my projections.

Running Back

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

David Johnson

55%

Le’Veon Bell

44%

LeSean McCoy

33%

Bilal Powell

23%

Kenneth Farrow

17%

Kenneth Dixon

16%

Aside from Bilal Powell, there are no surprises on the list above. David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and LeSean McCoy are going to be very popular this week as you can see and rightfully so. They are all in favorable spots and have been producing strong numbers. For value, Kenneth Farrow and Kenneth Dixon appear to be the consensus favorites. If Forte sits, Powell will receive some love, but I would still project him at 12-15 percent.

JetsInsider.com Photo: Randy O'Rourke

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Devonta Freeman

15%

Latavius Murray

11%

Tevin Coleman

9%

Ezekiel Elliot

8%

Carlos Hyde

7%

Due to the two-headed monster in Atlanta, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, it's hard to be heavily exposed to either of the two backs as they both see a fair amount of touches and snaps. This is the best matchup a running back can ask for, so naturally, they will be popular. Freeman is the starter, so I do think he will generate the most interest, which is why I have him projected at 14-16 percent. Coleman is the cheaper of the two and is coming off of a solid outing, so I have him projected at 10-12 percent. If either of these two were not playing this week, the other running back would be 20+ percent owned. Latavius Murray continues to play well and has seen more volume in recent weeks. He has a good matchup against the Chargers and could go overlooked. I currently have him at 8-10 percent, but would not be surprised if he was a little more popular, however, not nearly enough as he should be. Carlos Hyde has been playing well and although his team is on the road and huge dogs, I still like this spot for Hyde. The Falcons have been bad against running backs, more so backs that can catch passes out of the backfield and Hyde is fully capable of that. Considering game script, he should see plenty of targets out of the backfield. I have him projected under 10 percent making him very enticing for tournaments.

Wide Receiver

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Jamison Crowder

18%

Robby Anderson

18%

Taylor Gabriel

16%

Tyrell Williams

16%

If I told you at the start of the season to guess the ownership for receivers in Week 15, I am almost certain that none of these receivers would have made your list, but here we are. I do want to point something out to you now that we have reached this position. If you notice the running back percentages and look at these receivers percentages, it is pretty clear that everyone is constructing their lineups very similar. In tournaments, you may want to consider reversing the script to give yourself a shot at a big payday. Now back to these receivers. Jamison Crowder plays on Monday night, so he will not be a factor on the main slate. However, he should be popular on slates he is available in. Robby Anderson plays on Saturday, so unless you are doing that slate, he is not an option. Taylor Gabriel and Tyrell Williams have both been playing well as of late and should be fairly popular this week considering roster construction. I have both Williams and Gabriel at 12-18 percent this week.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

J.J. Nelson

11%

T.Y. Hilton

5%

Odell Beckham

3%

Jordy Nelson

3%

Marquise Lee

2%

Some of the receivers taken in this Aces tournament include Saturday and Monday night games, which is not the case for most tournaments we are registering for this weekend, so those percentages are a bit skewed. For starters, since we have value at running back, I do think some of the higher end receivers are going to be a little more popular than they were in this tournament. Odell Beckham gets a matchup against the Lions and should be one of the most popular receivers this weekend. I have him projected at 18-20 percent and think it could be higher. There are two value receivers on this list that I think will be significantly higher than they were in the Aces tournament, J.J. Nelson, and Marqise Lee. If you have read some of my work this week, I have elaborated on Nelson and considering his price; this is likely where people will go to for value. I have him projected at over 25 percent. Lee has been consistent and also comes at a very low price, which is why I have him projected at 14-18 percent. Jordy Nelson could go overlooked here and makes a strong tournament play. I currently have him projected at 8-10 percent.

Tight End

High Ownership – Chalk

Player

Ownership Percentage

Antonio Gates

20%

Travis Kelce

12%

Greg Olsen

11%

Ryan Griffin

11%

I do not think that Antonio Gates will be this popular this weekend. I have him projected at 5-8 percent and not even as a top five as far as ownership is concerned. On the other hand, I do think Travis Kelce will be one of the most popular choices. I mean, you cannot ignore what he has been doing, 100+ receiving yards in four straight games. I have him at 8-12 percent.

Low Ownership

Player

Ownership Percentage

Jermaine Gresham

5%

Kyle Rudolph

4%

These are two tight ends that I believe will be far more popular over the weekend. Jermaine Gresham is minimum price across the industry and has been productive as of late. He provides some salary relief at a volatile position and also has a great matchup. I would not be surprised if he were the most popular tight end play of the weekend but have him projected as top three as far as ownership is concerned. Kyle Rudolph should also be a fan favorite considering how well he has played in the last three games and the matchup at hand. I have him pegged for the chalk tight end this week and project him at 10-15 percent.

Good luck to all this week. For any questions or comments, you can always reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal

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