Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15: DFS Pivot Plays Vs. The Chalk

Fantasy Football Expert Armando Marsal discusses Week 15 pivots to cash BIG when playing NFL DFS on DraftKings!

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Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players, will put you in a good position to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chance for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday slate.

Quarterback

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/22924-matt-ryan?s=532

Matt Ryan $7,300 vs. San Francisco 49ers

Ryan is in a terrific spot this week going up against an awful 49ers defense. They have allowed +2.9 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks and are giving up 255.5 passing yards per game and have surrender 26 passing touchdowns (tied for second most in the league). Ryan is averaging 311.5 passing yards per game and has thrown 30 touchdowns (tied for 2nd in the league). Despite his recent bumps on the road, Ryan remains one of the top fantasy quarterbacks this season. I think ownership will be close at the top range, but Ryan should be one of the most popular plays this week.

49ers vs. Quarterbacks

Passing Yards

Passing TDs

Passing Yards Per Game

3,321

26

255.5

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/139478-dak-prescott?s=532

Dak Prescott $6,200 vs., Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am fully aware of Prescott's last two games, but that was against two of the top three pass defenses in the league. Before those two games, he had topped 20 fantasy points in six consecutive games. If you look at recent numbers, it may suggest that the Bucs have been playing better defense as of late and they have to a certain extent. However, they have also played against Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees (at Tampa), and Russell Wilson. On this list, Wilson is the only shocker as Brees plays far worse on the road. For the season, the Bucs who have allowed +1.0 points above expectations to opposing quarterbacks, while yielding 263.9 passing yards per game and 22 passing touchdowns. I may be in the minority, but this looks like a great bounce back spot for Prescott.

Bucs vs. Quarterbacks

Passing Yards

Touchdowns

Passing Yards Per Game

3,431

22

263.9

Running Backs

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/164574-kenneth-farrow?s=532

Kenneth Farrow $4,400 vs. Oakland Raiders

Once again, the two top backs – Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson – will be popular choices and rightfully so, but I will elaborate on another running back who will be popular and could be faded. Farrow is expected to get the start on Sunday for the injured Melvin Gordon. Last week, Farrow played in 85 percent of the offensive snaps last week after Gordon went down and combined for 78 yards on 22 touches, including six receptions. He has a favorable matchup this week against the Raiders who are giving up 107.5 rushing yards per game and have surrendered 12 rushing touchdowns (at least one in four straight games). Considering his price, potential workload, and matchup, chance are he will be among the highest owned backs.

Raiders vs. Running Backs

Rush Yards

Rush TD

Rec

Rec Yards

Rec TD

1,398

12

46

452

3

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/111675-carlos-hyde?s=532

Carlos Hyde $5,900 at Atlanta Falcons

I paid down at the quarterback position, so I decided to pay up at the running back position with my pivot. Since Week 11, Hyde has been producing solid numbers, averaging 19.8 touches, 109 rushing yards, 16.8 receiving yards, and 18.8 fantasy points per game, while scoring two receiving touchdowns. Typically I do not target running backs on the road that are heavy dogs, but I am considering making an exception this week considering how weak the Falcons have been against running backs. They are not allowing a ton of rushing yards, but they are letting running backs rack up numbers catching passes out of the backfield, giving up 7.5 receptions and 61.6 receiving yards per game. Hyde has displayed his ability to catch passes out of the backfield and be efficient in doing so. He could go overlooked in a favorable matchup simply because of the spread of this game.

Falcons vs. Running Backs

Rush Yards

Rush TD

Rec

Rec Yards

Rec TD

996

11

97

801

5

Wide Receivers

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/136313-jamarcus-nelson?s=532

J.J. Nelson $3,900 vs. New Orleans Saints

Nelson is set to see a larger role now that the team has parted ways with Michael Floyd. Despite playing limited snaps and receiving little targets over the past couple of weeks, Nelson has scored three touchdowns on three touches in the last two games. Granted, that type of production is not sustainable, but it does provide you with a glimpse of the upside that Nelson possesses. This is a good matchup for Nelson as Saints are allowing 13.4 receptions and 175.4 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers while yielding 11 touchdowns. Considering this contest being one of the highest projected totals of the slate and how subpar the Saints defense has played all season, Nelson will likely get tons of attention at this price.

Saints vs. Wide Receivers

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

174

2,280

11

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/136459-marqise-lee?s=532

Marqise Lee $4,000 at Houston Texans

Lee has become the most consistent receiver for the Jags this season. Since Week 9, he is averaging 7.5 targets, four receptions, 61.7 receiving yards, and 13.3 fantasy points per game, while scoring two touchdowns during that stretch. This week he faces the Texans who he caught four passes for 50 yards against earlier in the season. Houston has been good defensively this season, but since returning from their bye week, they are giving up 13.2 receptions and 153.2 receiving yards per game, while surrendering seven receiving touchdowns (five games). Considering the consistent volume and reasonable price, Lee makes sense this week. He will possibly be a fraction of the percentage owned in comparison to Nelson.

Lee’s last four games

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Touchdowns

16

236

2

Tight Ends

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/93117-kyle-rudolph?s=532

Kyle Rudolph $4,300 vs. Indianapolis Colts

I think that this position will have several of popular choices on Sunday, however, when taking price, matchup, and recent production into consideration, I think Rudolph will draw the most attention. In the last three weeks, Rudolph is averaging ten targets, 6.3 receptions, 56.3 yards, and 13.96 fantasy points, while finding the pay dirt once during that stretch. He faces a Colts defense that has allowed +3.1 points above expectations to opposing tight ends while yielding 5.6 receptions and 67.8 receiving yards per game to the position, as well as, four touchdowns. This is a prime spot for him and one he should be able to exploit.

Rudolph’s last three game

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

19

169

1

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/33854-antonio-gates?s=532

Antonio Gates $4,100 vs. Oakland Raiders

After scoring a touchdown in three consecutive games, Gates has cooled off in his last three and has been underwhelming. That being said, this is a good spot for a bounce back game. The Raiders are yielding 4.8 receptions and 63 receiving yards per game while giving up five touchdowns. In his last meeting against the Raiders this season, Gates caught four passes for 30 yards and a touchdown. He no longer has the upside he once had, but can still catch touchdown passes which are what we are looking for at this volatile position.

Raiders vs. Tight End

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

62

819

5

null

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