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Rather than rehash my thoughts for The Perfect DraftKings Lineup, I went to the bullpen again this week to bring in the slick thinking, high scoring righty – Chris Schinker. Here are his thoughts for the Perfect FanDuel Lineup in Week 15:
A few minutes into week 14 or as I watched Le’Veon Bell scamper in for his first TD, I was ill. You could just see the monster game coming. I didn't recommend him and drastically under-owned him personally. The unfortunate part is that when reflecting, it was an easy pivot from David Johnson. It was an intelligent contrarian play, not just a contrarian pivot to be contrarian. I had DJ tunnel vision and tunnel vision kills in GPPs when trying to beat massive fields. On to week 15….
When looking at week 15, I believe it is easy to choose a player pool when boxing multiple lineups. I will try to eliminate the right ones, giving you the perfect one!!
At QB, I like three options – Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, or Philip Rivers.
Note: The player comment listed in italics are from the position reports at Scout written by Shawn Childs with DraftKings salary implications in mind. They may or may not support the thoughts conveyed by Mr. Schinker for the Perfect FanDuel Lineup.
After tossing 30 TDs and eight Ints over the first ten games of the season, Brees had back-to-back poor games. He passed for 583 combined yards with NO TDs and six Ints. This week's matchup doesn't get any easier with a date with the Cardinals that rank 5th in the league defending QBs (13 passing TDs and 238.1 passing yards). No team has over 300 yards passing against Arizona. Drew has seven games with more than 300 yards passing (six at home) and seven games with three TDs or more (five at home). I would never sit him in the season-long games, but a daily ride doesn't interest me.
Palmer had a season low in passing yards (145) while throwing two TDs and two Ints. Over his last seven games, Carson 13 TDs with three games with over 100 yards receiving. The answer to the struggles with his number two WR was a battle with unfavorable drink. The Saints are 22nd in the league defending QBs with 19 passing TDs allowed plus 7.8 yards per pass attempt. Five teams have over 300 yards passing, but only one team has more than two TDs. New Orleans will give up TDs to RBs, so Palmer needs David Johnson to catch at least one of his TDs to be in play.
The train wreck of mistakes by Mr. Rivers happened again last week. Over his last six games, Philip has 13 Ints and 14 TDs while passing for over 300 yards in one of those games. In Week 5, he passed for 359 yards and four TDs against the Raiders. Oakland is 26th in the league vs. the QB position with all of their failure coming in four of the first five games of the season (NO - 423/4, ATL - 396/3, BAL -298/1, and SD - 359/4). Over the last seven games, no team has more than two passing TDs in a game against the Raiders with a high of 283 yards passing. Rivers has some weapons, and he should have success with his TEs. Possible 300+ yards with 3+ TDs.
To be perfect, I will go with Rivers. I truly like all three of these plays equal. The final decision is based on I can stack him with Gates. I think this game could go back and forth. Rivers is a gunslinger, and with the loss of Melvin Gordon, I believe a TD or two may go to Gates or the TE position. This now eliminates my pain when deciding what TE to speculate on.
Gates had a bounce back in targets (9) in Week 14 after delivering weak results in his two previous games (0/0 and 4/37). He finished with five catches for 61 yards. In Week 5, Antonio had four catches for 30 yards and a TD vs. the Raiders. Last week Gates was on the field for 37 of 67 plays run by the Chargers compared to 35 by Hunter Henry. Oakland is 21st in the league against the TE position (62/819/5 on 98 targets) with three bad games (ATL - 10/180/1, SD - 7/109/2, and HOU - 10/128). Antonio still needs three TDs to break the all-time record for TDs by a TE so he could get multi TDs in this game if he scores early. No sexiness left on his resume while being stud for a decade.
The running back position is interesting this week. By having a Carson Palmer feeling, I don't want to play David Johnson. Yes, I believe DJ will get his points, but at 10k we need almost 32 points. I just don’t see it. Don’t chase Le’Veon Bell, pay down and take LeSean McCoy ($9,000), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500), or both. The masses will be on LeGarrette Blount ($6,300). However, if RB2 is the spot you desire to cheat, Carlos Hyde ($7,000) or Kenneth Dixon ($5,400) would be my suggestions.
McCoy has three straight games with over 20.0 Fantasy points (433 combined yards with three TDs and 15 catches). At no point this season has LeSean produced enough Fantasy points to fulfill his target score to be an edge at $8,900. This week he gets the Cleveland Browns makeup. The Browns are 30th in the league vs. the RB position with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. RBs have 16 TDs against Cleveland. Playing well while being overpriced in Week 15 plus Mike Gillislee may snipe a TD or two.
Elliot had his shortest game of the season in Week 14 (24/107). His lowest rushing total (20/51/1) came in Week 1 also against the Giants. Ezekiel averages 24.2 touches per game with 13 TDs (five at home). His two edge games came in Week 5 (CIN - 171 combined yards with two TDs and three catches) and Week 10 (PIT - 209 combined yards with three TDs and two catches). The Bucs are just below league average against the RB position while improving four of their last five games (18.20, 17.70, 5.20, 25.50, and 16.50). On the year, RBs have 11 TDs while gaining 4.3 yards per rush. Volume back with scoring ability, but the Bucs' defense has been stingy allowing points over the last five games (10, 17, 5, 21, and 11). Rated highly in Week 15 so a 30-point game could be within reach if he scores a pair of TDs.
Hyde did look electric last week (17/193 plus a seven-yard catch for a TD). He had four runs of 20+ yards with two going for 40+ yards. Carlos extended his streak to six games without a rushing TDs, but he does have a receiving TD in two of his last three games. The Falcons have the second worst defense against the RB position with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Atlanta is the worse team in the league defending RBs out of the backfield (91/801/5 on 122 targets) while allowing 17 overall TDs to RBs. Five times in 2016 RBs have two or more TDs vs. the Falcons. It will be tough to leave Hyde off the roster this week, but I do wish he was more active in the passing game to help raise his floor.
The shining star at the backend of the Fantasy pool at RB in Week 15 will be Kenneth Dixon. Last week he had his best game of his career (81 combined yards with a TD and eight catches). Kenneth has 75 yards or more of offense in four of his last five games. Last week he out snapped Terrance West 42 to 14. Game score was a big factor in Dixon’s playing time as the Ravens fell behind early. The Eagles drifted back to 10th in the league vs. the RB position with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. RBs gain 4.1 yards per rush against Philly with 10 TDs. I like his direction, but West is still going to get the goal-line carries. Viable for sure, but he needs a TD to deliver on expectations.
Wide receiver has so many mid-tier options with upside. I think pairing Amari Cooper ($7,400), with upside and a track record of lighting up the Bolts, makes sense on the opposite side of Rivers. This play also provides correlation with the shootout I feel. (on a side note: if playing multiples, Michael Crabtree ($6,000) may be this guy too).
Cooper has five straight games with fewer than 60 yards receiving with two TDs. Over this span, Amari has 34 targets (6.8 per game). He's listed as questionable for this week's game with a shoulder issue. On the year, Cooper has four games with over 100 yards receiving and only four TDs. In Week 5, Amari had one of his better games against the Chargers (6/138/1). San Diego moved to 9th in the league against WRs (159/2188/11 on 283 targets) with a high level of success in the last three games (HOU - 10/142, TB - 11/142, and CAR - 6/73/1). Cooper should see a high percentage of CB Casey Hayward who is one of the top CBs in the league in 2016. Tough to trust based on his recent path and his unfavorable matchup never mind the finger issue with Derek Carr.
Crabtree has three poor games (DEN - 2/27, HOU - 3/5, and HC - 4/21) over his last five starts. Michael has three games with over 100 yards receiving and seven TDs (one in his last six games) while averaging 9.2 targets per game. In Week 5, he had three catches for 47 yards and a TD against San Diego. His matchup against CB Trevor Williams looks favorable, but Crabtree is listed as questionable for this week's game with a finger issue. He has the talent to pay off if this game is played at a fast pace.
I just need a Top end WR and this week Mike Evans ($8,200) is the guy I must come back with. I don’t care about the ball control nonsense the world is talking about with Dallas. Evans comes back this week for 20+ Fantasy points.
Evans deserted Fantasy owners on the doorstep of winning a championship. Over the last two games, Mike had his lowest two games (3/38 and 4/42) of the season in production. He has four games with over 100 yards receiving (three at home) with 10 TDs (two in the last five games). Dallas is 28th in the league defending WRs (201/2294/14 on 308 targets). The best three WRs against the Cowboys in 2016 are Antonio Brown (14/154/1), DeSean Jackson (4/118/1), and Brandon LaFell (8/68/2). High volume WR (11.2 targets per game) with an edge in TDs who's due to for a bounce back game. If Tampa is going to win, Evans will need to come up big.
My third receiver will be Larry Fitzgerald ($7,200). The masses will have J.J. Nelson ($5,000). Future HOF Larry will have some targets in a high scoring affair.
Fitzgerald extended his scoreless streak to eight games. Larry had his worst game (3/12 on nine targets) of the season in Week 14. On the year, he has fewer than 100 yards receiving in 12 of his 13 games while averaging ten targets per game. New Orleans is 20th in the league defending WRs (174/2280/10 on 278 targets). Five WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Saints (Amari Cooper - 6/137, Sterling Shepard - 8/117, Dontrelle Inman - 7/120/1, Quinton Patton - 6/106, and Golden Tate - 8/145/1). This matchup is favorable, but Fitzgerald needs to hits on a big play while scoring a TD.
The TE position is decided with the stack to Rivers. The fact he had nine targets last week makes me feel better about my decision as well.
Defense is usually a search and cheat for me. Not this week. The Buffalo/Ryan aggressive defense is one that usually shines against subpar offenses. Cleveland, check.
I know Shawn is a correlation Def/K player and while he is the sharpest guy I talk to I differ. This week I see a game without flow between Baltimore and Philadelphia. I believe this leads to FGs and I can afford the best Kicker in the game so Justin Tucker ($5,200) should get over 10 Fantasy points.
To win in the daily Fanduel world, you are looking for 200 or more points or about 23 pts per spot. This lineup gives you a legitimate shot at that. Good luck to you, I hope I split something big with you. Here’s my Week 15 Perfect FanDuel Lineup:
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