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Week 16: DFS Pivot Plays Vs. The Chalk

Fantasy Football Expert Armando Marsal discusses Week 16 pivots to cash BIG when playing NFL DFS on DraftKings & FanDuel!

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Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players, will put you in a good position to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chance for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays.

Quarterback

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/19841-drew-brees?s=532

Drew Brees $7,400 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brees is usually popular when he plays at home, but in a good matchup like the one at hand, he will be chalky this weekend. The Bucs have allowed +1.1 points above expectations to quarterbacks and are yielding 265 passing yards per game while giving up 22 passing touchdowns. Going back to 2012 (nine games), Brees is averaging 318 passing yards per game and has tossed 19 touchdowns against the Bucs. This contest has one of the higher projected totals of the week, and the Saints have a healthy implied team total. There is no reason why Brees can't pick this defense apart and have himself a nice day.

Bucs vs. Quarterbacks

Passing Yards

Passing TDs

Passing Yards Per Game

3,710

22

265

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/28541-aaron-rodgers?s=532

Aaron Rodgers $6,700 vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings defense will likely scare some people off of Rodgers, and it is totally understandable as they have been stout for just about the entire season. However, Rodgers is one of those quarterbacks that even in tough matchups offers so much upside and this game takes place at Lambeau Field, providing some leverage for Rodgers. He has been playing well since Week 7, averaging 290.1 passing yards and 25.5 fantasy points per game during that stretch while throwing 22 touchdowns. In the second week of the season, he threw for 213 yards and one touchdown against the Vikings, while also rushing one in for a touchdown and scoring 19.4 fantasy points. This is the second lowest that Rodgers has been all season from a salary standpoint and if I can get an elite quarterback at a depressed price and potentially low ownership, that is a situation I am interested in.

Aaron Rodgers Last Nine Games

Passing Yards Per Game

Touchdowns

Fantasy Points Per Game

290.1

22

25.5

Running Backs

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/161420-jordan-howard?s=532

Jordan Howard $6,300 vs. Washington Redskins

Howard continues to be the Bears bell-cow and gets a favorable matchup this week. The Redskins are allowing 22.6 rush attempts and 102.3 rushing yards per game while yielding 14 rushing touchdowns. Howard is averaging 21.7 touches and 124 total yards in his last seven games, scoring five touchdowns during that stretch. In that time frame, he is also averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game. He remains reasonably price for his recent production and will likely be one of the most popular backs of the week. I will have some exposure.

Redskins vs. Running Backs

Rush Yards

Rush TD

Rec

Rec Yards

Rec TD

1,432

14

66

511

4

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/89439-latavius-murray?s=532

Latavius Murray $6,200 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Last week was the first time in three games that Murray received fewer than 20 touches. Before his last game, he was averaging 22.3 touches, 98.7 yards, and 20.9 fantasy points, while scoring four touchdowns during that stretch. He has scored a touchdown in all but four games and had twelve for the season. He proved that when he is receiving the volume he can be efficient and this week he draws a favorable matchup. The Colts are allowing 21.1 rush attempts and 94.7 rushing yards per game. They have also surrendered 13 touchdowns. The Raiders are at home and favored in this game, with a high projected total. I am not exactly sure where to predict Murray's ownership, but I believe it will be much less than Howard's this week.

Colts vs. Running Backs

Rush Yards

Rush TD

Rec

Rec Yards

Rec TD

1,326

8

67

604

5

Wide Receivers

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/62277-michael-crabtree?s=532

Michael Crabtree $6,100 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Crabtree continues to be the more consistent and efficient receiver in Oakland. He leads the team in targets (127), receptions (77), and touchdowns (8). He accounts for 24.3 percent of the team's target share and 23.8 percent of the red zone targets. He has topped 18 fantasy points in three of the last four games, averaging 6.3 receptions and 66.3 receiving yards per game during that stretch, while scoring two touchdowns. The Bucs are yielding 160.2 receiving yards per game and have allowed 16 receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts. Crabtree should be a fan favorite this week as he has a good matchup and is fairly priced.

Michael Crabtree Season Stats

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

77

866

8

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/134530-donte-moncrief?s=532

Donte Moncrief $5,400 at Oakland Raiders

Someone that may go a tad overlooked this week is Moncrief, but that can be a mistake as he is way too cheap. I understand that he has not displayed a ton of upside this season, having failed to eclipse 64 yards in a game this season, but he does know how to get in the end zone. He has scored a touchdown in all but two games this season. He is averaging 6.6 targets per game and accounts for 15.6 of the red zone targets. The matchup is a good one as the Raiders are yielding 174.5 receiving yards per game and have given up 14 receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts. You save $700 by pivoting to Moncrief and get a receiver with a similar floor.

Donte Moncrief Season Stats (eight games)

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Touchdowns

28

277

6

Tight Ends

Chalk

http://www.scout.com/player/137903-cameron-brate?s=532

Cameron Brate $3,900 at New Orleans Saints

Brate continues to play well, averaging six targets, 4.5 receptions, 52.3 receiving yards, and 13.5 fantasy points per game in the last eight games, scoring five touchdowns during that timeframe. He accounts for 25 percent of the Bucs red zone targets and 14.8 percent of the target share. He is in a good spot this week against the Saints who are giving up 55.6 receiving yards while yielding four touchdowns. They have also allowed +1.2 points above expectations to the position. I expect him to be the highest owned tight end of the weekend or close to it.

Brate’s Last Eight Games

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

36

422

5

Pivot

http://www.scout.com/player/94437-charles-clay?s=532

Charles Clay $3,200 vs. Miami Dolphins

Clay has now scored a touchdown in two straight games and looks to carry that momentum over against his former team. The Dolphins have allowed +4.6 points above expectations to opposing tight ends and are giving up 56.7 receiving yards per game while yielding seven touchdowns. Clay had struggled for most of the season despite averaging over five targets per game. He comes at a low price and will likely be a fraction of the ownership that Brate will be in just as good of a spot.

Dolphins vs. Tight Ends

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

67

794

7

null

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