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Week 17: FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Projections (Updated 12/31)

Week 17 NFL DFS projections for every single relevant player so you can rake in the cash on FanDuel & DraftKings. It's all provided by senior Fantasy Football expert Shawn Childs!

Before I dump a bunch of projections on the Fantasy world in Scout for the daily games, I thought it was important to explain my thought process and goal with this information.

  1. The first goal is to put each offense in a fair structure to determine playing time for each team. This information is based previous results while being geared to the natural outcomes of the games as far as time of possession and points spread. If a team is expected to win big, they naturally should have a higher volume of running plays. If they are expected to get drilled, they will run less with more passes flying in the air. Ideally, a successful Fantasy owner that can predict different outcomes should have an edge in some area. If two teams play at a slow pace while running the ball, they will attempt fewer plays. The reverse is also true.

  1. The difference in winning or losing in Fantasy football in season long games and daily comes down to be plays and events (TDs). Therefore, when predicting outcomes, placing TDs is the key to the high and low rankings of many players. I don’t believe it is fair to the customer base at Scout for me to make wild predictions in the projections based on my feeling as I know I can be wrong just as much as the next guy. My goal is to give a fair TD grade to all players based on previous success and their opponents. If a player has a history of scoring about eight TDs per game, he will be rated in most weeks with a half of a TD. If the matchup looks unfavorable, I may drop him to 25 percent while raising his value in a favorable matchup. It is important to be consistent with this thought process throughout the player pool to deliver a fair medium of projections. When viewing the rankings by position, a Fantasy owner will see that a half of a TD (three Fantasy points) may move up or down many players multiple spots at their position in the ranking.

  1. Once I do my initial rankings on Tuesday, I will walk my way through the each position to do my weekly daily write ups. Within each player’s profile, I will find reasons to improve a player’s value or possibly devalue some players. Most of the player information is fluid all week so the early released projections could change drastically by the weekend if multiple players go down with injuries.  By the end of the week, Fantasy owners will have a feel for the players I like or possibly don’t like. I will do a second update late Friday that will be released on Saturday. I’m really not in a position to be in the box on Sunday as I’m a Fantasy owner as well, and I’ll need to manage my teams in the heat of the battle.

  1. For any of us to be better Fantasy owners, we have to be able to intake a ton of information and make good decisions to have success in Fantasy. I believe the key is seeing game models leading to a wide range of possible projections. It would be a great idea for the Scout and its users to develop a relationship where we think through these ideas and thought processes to deliver some out of the box projections later in the week. Within each game, I can increase the time of possession for one team to predict more runs. I could also do the reverse and turn a game into a shootout where both teams thrown a ton of passes.

  1. The Scout team has plenty of people with long histories in Fantasy Football. Each and every one has an opinion and reason for their decision making. The final rankings we ship for a public view beyond my projections is a group effort. My projections are just a starting point with the team adding where they see possible flaws. They will also take a position on a couple of players they believe will make an impact that week. As in anything, passion drives us, but we made a better decision when we leave our heart on the table.

Color key and explanation:


Note: The spreadsheet's appearance varies by device and browser. Due to the size and dimensions of the projections, it may be best to download the file. We recommend using Google Docs, Microsoft Excel or any spreadsheet-compatible app/program to view.

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