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Plays of the Day
Value: Jamal Crawford only connected on 3-of-14 shots from the field and none of his four attempts from deep to slightly exceed value with 23 DK points (22.1 FD points) over 25 minutes of run on Thursday. He draws a much softer matchup tonight against a Nuggets team that coughs up the fourth-most FPPG (42.25) to opposing SGs over the last month. With a 26.1% Usage Rate when Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are off the floor this season, Crawford should continue to hoist up shots and he could get hot in Denver this evening.
Fade: Giannis Antetokounmpo fell slightly short of value in a blowout loss last night, but regardless, he’s not easy to trust against a disciplined Miami defense that’s held him to just 16.5 PPG and 38.4 DK PPG over 2 meetings so far this season.
Games to Target
- Denver Nuggets (-3) hosting Los Angeles Clippers (Over/Under = 220)
- New York Knicks (-5.5) hosting Phoenix Suns (Over/Under = 220.5)
Eric Bledsoe (PHO) @ NYK DK:$8,500/FD:$8,300
The Suns combo guard is playing great ball right now as the New York Knicks defense descends into dumpster fire territory. A few weeks ago, this game might have been assigned with an Over/Under around 208 points, but now these two poor defensive teams have forced a 220-point Over/Under from Vegas and we should see plenty of FP production on both sides with the fast-paced Suns coming to MSG. Bledsoe is averaging 20.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG and 8.3 APG over his last 4 appearances and tonight he’s facing a Knicks squad that coughs up the seventh-most FPPG (49.37) to opposing PGs over the last week, having recently been eviscerated by John Wall and the Wizards. While this fellow Kentucky product isn’t as refined as Wall, Bledsoe possesses a similar skill set that should give the Knicks fits in PnR sets as well as in the open floor.
Raymond Felton (LAC) @ DEN DK:$5,700/FD:$4,600
It’s tough to choose between Felton and Austin Rivers ($5900/$5400) at similar price tags on DK tonight, and there’s no real reason not to play both, but Felton is a virtual must play at that dirt cheap price tag on FD. The Clippers fill-in PG exceeded value in a start against the Wolves on Thursday with 10 points and 8 assists over 34 minutes of playing time and he should fare even better tonight against a Nuggets squad that coughs up the second-most FPPG (48.02) to opposing PGs on the season. Denver is playing at the fifth-fastest pace and giving up the third-most PPG (111.6) while falling to 30th in defensive rating over the past couple of weeks and their offense is thriving with point center Nikola Jokic at the controls, so this is a game to target and one that could very well go over its 220-point Over/Under line.
Dejounte Murray ($3700/$3500) played very well for the Spurs in a spot start on Thursday and he will definitely be worth a look if Tony Parker (foot) misses another game. Ty Lawson ($4000/$4200) returned for the Kings to exceed value last night and he’s a solid value against the Bulls struggling defense.
While his Hornets have won two consecutive blowouts and could make it three in a row, Kemba Walker ($8000/$7900) is still exceeding value over the first three quarters and he draws a juicy matchup against the Nets tonight.
Devin Booker (PHO) @ NYK DK:$6,700/FD:$6,500
James Harden isn’t necessarily the Fade of the Day, as he should bounce back from a somewhat lackluster performance against the Warriors last night, but he faces an elite Grizzlies defense that limited him a couple of weeks ago and he’s far too expensive on FanDuel right now. Booker is an elite mid-tier option with the Suns facing the aforementioned struggling Knicks, who are giving up the sixth-most FPPG (41.22) to opposing SGs over the last month. He’s averaging 28.7 PPG over his last 7 appearances and finally supplemented that scoring with solid peripheral stats in a loss at Cleveland on Thursday. If the young Suns backcourt can play with enough confidence to challenge LeBron and company for stretches, than they can certainly produce against the dysfunctional Knicks.
Jamal Crawford (LAC) @ DEN DK:$4,500/FD:$3,900
He might be a risky option as a mid-tier play on DK, but Crawford is a great punt to consider on FanDuel with the Clippers shorthanded ahead of a potential shootout on the road. The opportunity was there on Thursday with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin inactive, yet Crawford only connected on 3-of-14 shots from the field and none of his four attempts from deep to slightly exceed value with 23 DK points (22.1 FD points) over 25 minutes of run. He draws a much softer matchup tonight against a Nuggets team that coughs up the fourth-most FPPG (42.25) to opposing SGs over the last month and the second-most FPPG (220.82) overall during that span. With a 26.1% Usage Rate when Paul and Griffin are off the floor this season, Crawford should continue to hoist up shots and he could get hot in Denver this evening.
Garrett Temple ($4200/$4100) seems most likely to benefit from Rudy Gay’s season-ending injury and he draws a good matchup tonight against the Bulls.
Will Barton ($6500/$5700) could continue to produce in the SLU for the Nuggets with Gary Harris (ankle) out, while Austin Rivers ($5900 as PG on DK/$5400) is a great mid-tier option with upside.
Kawhi Leonard (SA) @ CLE: DK:$9,200/FD:$9,600
If you believe that LeBron James is capable of transcending tough matchups or hear that Kevin Love (back) is out for the Cavs tonight, you might want to pay up a bit for the King, but otherwise, feel free to join the Hater’s Parade and use LeBron’s Kryptonite, i.e. Kawhi. The two-time reigning Defensive Player of the Year is the toughest player for LeBron to deal with (even if he wouldn’t admit it) and Leonard’s stellar defense did little to affect his offensive output, as he averaged 22 PPG while playing 37.5 MPG over 2 meetings with Cleveland last year. The Spurs (+2) are in a rare position as underdogs tonight and with Pau Gasol (finger) out indefinitely, Leonard is going to have to continue carrying San Antonio’s offense with his versatile game.
Joe Ingles (UTA) vs. IND: DK:$4,400/FD:$3,700
With a smooth and efficient game, Ingles had no trouble exceeding value once again despite facing a slow-paced Mavericks team that doesn’t move the needle much in DFS terms last night. Tonight he’s even closer to the minimum price on FanDuel ahead of a much better matchup against a Pacers team that coughs up the eighth-most PPG (106.6) this season and allows the most PPG (25.6) to opposing SFs over the last month. Ingles is one of the league’s leaders with a mark of 46.1% shooting from 3PT range and he’s 8-of-15 from deep over his last 5 appearances. He should continue to play heavy minutes with Rodney Hood (knee) on the shelf and remains a DFS bargain.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4000/$4600) is coming alive for the Nets lately and he could thrive even if tonight’s road game turns into a blowout. Caris Levert ($3400/$4100) was also great for the Nets last night and he could retain value even if Sean Kilpatrick (rest) plays this evening.
Wilson Chandler ($5800/$5700) should return to the Nuggets lineup after a personal absence and he’s relatively cheap while Danilo Gallinari (ankle) is somewhat hobbled for Denver.
Paul Millsap (ATL) vs. PHI: DK:$7,700/FD:$8,200
The Sixers are streaking right now, having won 8 of their last 10, but defensive stopper and breakout superstar Joel Embiid was active for 9 of those games and they happened to lose to Washington on the second half of a B2B with him resting. Embiid is fully expected to sit out tonight, which leaves a revolving door rotation of PFs and much weaker defensive centers to try and contain Millsap and the Hawks front line. He got off to a great start last night before Atlanta blew out the Bulls at home and non-competitive games were the biggest impediment preventing Millsap from blowing up against the Sixers over 2 previous meetings this season. Yet he’s fully capable of exceeding value against a Philly team that fall from the 10th-rated defense to the 23rd-ranked defense in the league when Embiid is inactive.
David Lee (SA) @ CLE: DK:$4,800/FD:$4,900
While Lee started the Spurs last game with Pau Gasol suffering a broken finger during warm-ups, there are no guarantees that Gregg Popovich sticks with any consistent rotation. After all, Gasol hardly played consistent minutes when he was healthy, but tonight’s matchup seems to play to Lee’s strengths against a Cavs team that attacks the offensive glass and struggles to defend PnR sets on the other end of the floor. Lee certainly showed well with 10 points, 18 boards and 38.5 DK points (36.2 FD points) against Denver on Thursday and his matchup would dramatically improve if Kevin Love (back) misses another game for the Cavs or plays at less than full strength.
Ersan Ilyasova ($5800/$5800) is a solid mid-tier option for cash games who could see a boost with Embiid out tonight. Dario Saric ($4700/$4200) is also worth a look as a cheap play for the Sixers.
Channing Frye ($4600/$4200) would likely play a key role for the Cavs if Love can’t go. Kristaps Porzingis ($6800/$7200) showed some rust in his return to the Knicks lineup on Thursday but he destroyed the Suns earlier this season and could get back up to speed soon.
DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) @ CHI: DK:$10,900/FD:$10,600
While the Grizzlies held him in check last night as predicted in this very article, it’s only a matter of time before Boogie starts going full beast mode once again now that Rudy Gay (Achilles) is done for the year. Cousins boasts a 41.7% Usage Rate and averages 1.37 FPs per minute with Gay off the floor this season and he’s going to roll right through Robin Lopez and the Bulls weak interior defense this evening. Last night’s blowout loss ensures Cousins will be fresh after he played just 28 minutes and he’s overcome his struggles on B2B sets this year in any case with averages of 26 PPG and 11.3 RPG on 0 days rest. He went for 24.5 PPG and 14.5 RPG over 2 meetings with Chicago last year and this year’s Bulls team is far worse defensively.
DeAndre Jordan (LAC) @ DEN: DK:$7,800/FD:$9,100
The lone member of the Clippers Big 3 still standing at this juncture of the season, Jordan has carried his team recently. He’s posting ridiculous averages of 20.5 PPG, 18 RPG and 2.8 BPG while producing over 50 FPs in 3 straight appearances and that trend may very well continue in a road game against the fast-paced Nuggets. While Denver’s young stud Nikola Jokic is lighting the league on fire with his offensive performances, Jordan is capable of containing him on the low block, and you can’t necessarily say the same thing about the Joker on the other end, which makes foul trouble a real concern for him. Jordan is averaging 1.14 FPs per minute with Griffin and Paul off the floor this season and the Clippers will need to feed their big man to have a chance on the road tonight.
Tyson Chandler ($5200/$5700) is balling right now and coming off a season-high 22 points against the Cavs, so he’s worth a look against his former team at MSG.
Clint Capela ($4000/$4600) was let loose against the Warriors last night and played great, but he’s a longshot to do the same against the tough Grizzlies front line tonight.