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Plays of the Day
Value: Dejounte Murray has stepped right in as the Spurs starting PG to produce 38 points on 14-of-21 FG shooting over his last 2 appearances. His efficiency is off the charts and he’s a capable defender at 6-foot-5, so he should continue to earn more minutes from HC Gregg Popovich and he should be very productive against a Nets team that gives up the most PPG (114.9) and most FPPG (50.3) to opposing PGs on the season.
Fade: Even if Anthony Davis (quad) is active tonight, there’s no way you can trust him in cash games given his ridiculous recent history with in-game injuries. The Cavs are very solid defensively in the paint and he’s not the best GPP option either even if you want to be contrarian.
Games to Target
- Milwaukee Bucks (+5) hosting Houston Rockets (Over/Under = 223.5)
- Miami Heat (+11.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 216.5)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. HOU DK:$10,600/FD:$10,800 as SG
After he put up solid numbers in a couple of mediocre matchups on the road, Giannis should get right back to flashing his incredible upside in this home tilt. The fast-paced Rockets bring their second-ranked scoring offense and fast-paced system to Milwaukee for a game that opened with a 228-point Over/Under, which indicates that Vegas believes this matchup in Milwaukee will be much closer than Houston’s 111-92 win over the Bucks last week. The Greek Freak carried his team with 32 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists in that loss, so perhaps his teammates will come along for the ride this time. He’s averaging more PPG (24.2) and DK PPG (51.4) by a decent margin at home and the Rockets happen to give up the sixth-most FPPG (46.46) to opposing PGs over the last month.
Austin Rivers (LAC) @ ATL DK:$5,900/FD:$5,400
Rivers was given the keys to the Clippers first unit while veteran Raymond Felton came off the bench in their last game, and the results were not good. Yet the fact that his dad is the coach as well as Austin’s solid play over the past several weeks would indicate that he’s not going to lose any playing time as the team looks to rebound in Atlanta tonight. Rivers was more productive than Felton over his 26 minutes in Denver on Saturday and he’s sporting a much higher 24.4% Usage Rate while averaging 0.73 FPs per minute when Griffin and Paul are off the floor this year. Atlanta happens to give up the fourth-most FPPG (45.34) to opposing PGs this season and has been inconsistent defensively over the last few weeks.
Ty Lawson ($4000/$4300) remains a solid bet for production with the Kings facing the Pistons and Raymond Felton ($5700/$4900) is still a very good value on FanDuel despite his move to the bench.
He was quiet in an easy win over Brooklyn, but Kemba Walker ($8100/$7900) should do work at home tonight in a showdown with John Wall ($9300/$9700), as they make for an intriguing GPP stack.
James Harden (HOU) @ MIL DK:$12,100/FD:$11,900
It comes down to Harden or Westbrook as the top options on another full slate, but Westy is far more volatile in a tough matchup at Utah with the Thunder at risk of another blowout loss. The Rockets are coming off a blowout win in Memphis in which Harden still met value with 29 points and 62 DK points (55.2 FD points) despite going just 7-of-9 from the floor. He should be challenged more with Houston on the road tonight at a Bucks team that is capable of matching points, but struggles defensively at times. Milwaukee coughs up the fifth-most FPPG (39.7) to opposing SGs this season and The Beard averaged 28 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 8.5 APG over 2 meetings against the Bucks last year before the potential MVP was given the keys to a fast-paced offense.
Dejounte Murray (SA) @ BKN DK:$4,100 as PG/FD:$3,800
Here’s one of the best value options on the slate with Tony Parker (foot) unlikely to suit up for a third straight game. The Spurs have apparently found another gem in the late first round of the draft, as Murray has stepped right in as their starting PG to produce 38 points on 14-of-21 FG shooting over his last 2 appearances. His efficiency is off the charts and he’s a capable defender at 6-foot-5, so he should continue to earn more minutes from HC Gregg Popovich and he should be very productive against a Nets team that gives up the most PPG (114.9) and most FPPG (50.3) to opposing PGs on the season.
Garrett Temple ($4200/$4300) continues to produce for the Kings with Rudy Gay out and his individual matchup could be better if KCP remains out for the Pistons.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4700/$4700) is a solid mid-tier option with the Hawks hosting the shorthanded Clippers, while Jamal Crawford ($4400/$3900) still offers upside as a punt play in that game.
LeBron James (CLE) @ NO: DK:$9,900/FD:$10,600
Time to play the motivation game again with LeBron and hope that he wakes up with a championship-caliber effort with his team reeling. The Cavs have dropped four consecutive games against quality opponents (UTA, POR, GSW and SA) and Bron was badly outplayed by Kawhi Leonard in their latest OT loss against the Spurs. So he should play very hard in an effort to get Cleveland (-6.5) back in the win column against a Pelicans team that is strong at guard and at PF when Anthony Davis actually plays, but struggles to contain athletic wings. New Orleans coughs up the seventh-most FPPG (40.06) and most RPG (9.5) to opposing SFs this season and that bodes very well for a triple double threat in James.
Joe Ingles (UTA) vs. OKC: DK:$4,800/FD:$3,900
While he’s appropriately priced on DK after a couple of solid games, Ingles remains dirt cheap on FD despite his consistent production in the absence of Jazz guard Rodney Hood (knee). He’s produced 25 points, 15 assists and 8 steals over 3 spot starts with Hood out and logged at least 33 minutes in each of those appearances. Ingles even managed to meet value while scoring just 2 points and uncharacteristically missing all three of his attempts from beyond the arc on Saturday, so he seems like a very safe play with some upside against a Thunder team that gives up the third-most PPG (21.27) to opposing SFs on the season.
Sam Dekker ($4200/$4300) might take a hit in terms of playing time with Ryan Anderson (illness) expected to return for the Rockets tonight, but the rookie has played well enough to remain in the rotation.
Consider Gordon Hayward ($7000/$7400) as a higher upside option than Ingles in the same solid matchup against OKC tonight.
Kevin Love (CLE) @ NO: DK:$7,600/FD:$7,500
Love should be a nice contrarian option because he struggled with his shot while returning from a back injury on Saturday night and it’s fair to wonder if he’s playing at far less than one hundred percent. Yet his price tag reflects those concerns and he has plenty of potential in a game with a 216-point Over/Under against a Pelicans team that coughs up the tenth-most PPG (105.7) in the NBA this year. New Orleans ranks 29th in total rebounding and Anthony Davis (quad) is far from a lock to finish tonight’s game even if he manages to suit up, so Love could control the boards on the road while the Cavs look to bounce back with a road win.
David Lee (SA) @ BKN: DK:$5,500/FD:$5,100
Lee’s price bump on DK should give you some pause, but he’s a great option in any format at a comfortable mid-tier price tag on FanDuel. The veteran is in better playing shape and giving a much better effort defensively than he has throughout his career, so you can trust Popovich to give him steady minutes while Pau Gasol (finger) is out over the next couple of months. The Spurs (-12) are obviously big favorites against the Nets 30th-ranked defense and there’s a risk that D-Lee will get some extra rest in the second half, but while he’s out there he should produce against a Brooklyn team that gives up the fourth-most FPPG (44.83) to opposing PFs this season.
Marvin Williams ($4600/$4800) is similar to Taj Gibson in that he won’t really hurt your cash game lineups and could potentially exceed value on occasion. Derrick Favors ($4900/$4500) is more of a boom-bust option in that price range.
Use Terrence Jones ($6200/$5200) against the Cavs tonight if you’re completely disillusioned with Anthony Davis and his frequent injuries.
DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) @ DET: DK:$10,500/FD:$10,900
You can probably steer clear of Boogie and play a reasonably priced center on FanDuel, but he’s a fantastic option in any format on DK. The Kings offense has become a one-man show once again with Rudy Gay (Achilles) done for the season and Cousins didn’t disappoint in a decent matchup at the Bulls last Saturday, as he went for 42 points on 16-of-28 FG shooting. Tonight he faces a Pistons team that is vulnerable down low with inconsistent big man Andre Drummond leading their interior defense and they’re giving up the sixth-most FPPG (51.14) to opposing centers on the season. Boogie went for 24 points, 13 rebounds and 6 assists in his only other meeting with Detroit this year and he should do just fine on the road this evening.
Rudy Gobert (UTA) vs. OKC: DK:$7,300/FD:$8,100
Now, if Steven Adams (concussion) is able to suit up tonight for the Thunder, I would recommend pivoting off Gobert and onto Hassan Whiteside in GPP formats or perhaps DeAndre Jordan in cash games or tournaments. Yet if Adams remains out, the Thunder should have no answers for Utah’s massive young center. The Stifle Tower posted the best statistical line of his young career on Friday with 27 points and 25 boards against the Mavericks and he’s capable of dominating the shorthanded Thunder front line just as DeAndre Jordan (19 points, 15 boards) did when Adams was out last Thursday. With averages of 17.8 PPG, 16.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG over his last 5 appearances, Gobert appears to be seriously under priced on DK as a virtual lock for a double double.
Zaza Pachulia ($3800/$4200) is putting up consistent numbers for the Warriors and he could see more playing time in an effort to match up with Hassan Whiteside tonight.
It’s a revenge game for Enes Kanter ($6300/$6400 as PF on FD) in Utah and he should see more playing time and usage if Steven Adams (conussion) remains out.