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Plays of the Day
Value: Toronto may wind up replacing DeMar DeRozan (ankle) by committee, but Norman Powell is the most likely candidate to start for the injured all-star. While he fizzled out in his last start during a 35-point loss in Charlotte, Powell has exceeded value in most of his spot starts for aging SF DeMarre Carroll this season and he’s averaging 14.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals per 36 minutes.
Fade: Nikola Jokic has been lighting the league on fire lately but this seems like a good spot to fade him at a lofty price tag on FanDuel. He’s facing the length Rudy Gobert and a disciplined Jazz defense, so it will be tough for him to score in the paint or rack up assists when his teammates look for backdoor cuts.
Games to Target
- Phoenix Suns (-1.5) hosting Minnesota Wolves (Over/Under = 215)
- Washington Wizards (+1.5) hosting Boston Celtics (Over/Under = 217)
Eric Bledsoe (PHO) vs. MIN DK:$8,900/FD:$9,300
The Suns talented PG is on fire right now with averages of 24 PPG and 8.8 APG over his last 6 appearances. Bledsoe has been much more aggressive by attacking the basket and he’s 50-of-52 at the FT line during that span, so he’s a great option to consider in what should be another fast-paced matchup tonight. Minnesota is coughing up the fourth-most APG (9,33) to opposing PGs over the last month and ranks 29th in opponents 2PT shooting (.524%) on the season. Ricky Rubio (personal) should return tonight for the Wolves, but that only improves EB’s matchup after he’s averaged 25 PPG and 6.5 APG over 2 meetings with Rubio and Minnesota this year.
Kyle Lowry (TOR) vs. SA DK:$8,800/FD:$8,400
While he’s yet to prove anyone wrong for leaving him out off the SLU in the ASG this year, Lowry is a powder keg waiting to explode and the absence of DeMar DeRozan (ankle) over the next 2 games will provide that opportunity. Lowry leads the team with a 29.5% Usage Rate and he’s averaging 1.19 FPs per minute when DeRozan is off the floor this season, which makes him worth a look despite drawing a tough matchup against the Spurs tonight. San Antonio’s elite defense takes a slight hit with injuries to Tony Parker and Pau Gasol while it would become far more vulnerable if Kawhi Leonard (hand) misses another game tonight. This is also the Spurs fourth game over the last six nights, so they might not be at the very best defensively.
Austin Rivers ($5900/$5400) and Raymond Felton ($5700/$4900) are both very good bets for production in a plus matchup at the 76ers tonight. Depending on injury news, Jameer Nelson ($4000/$3700) and C.J. Watson ($3700/$4000 as SG on FD) could emerge as viable punt plays.
Love Elfrid Payton ($6200/$6700) against the Bulls tonight especially if Evan Fournier (foot) and D.J. Augustin are both out tonight. Cory Joseph ($3900/$4000) is worth a look if you believe the Raptors will replace DDR by using two-PG lineups.
Bradley Beal (WAS) vs. BOS DK:$6,700/FD:$6,700
He’s far from a safe play, but Beal probably has the most upside of any SG on the board tonight with DeRozan ruled out. The Wizards host the fast-paced Celtics tonight without their shutdown defender in Avery Bradley (Achilles) and Boston is coughing up the third-most FPPG (42.14) to opposing SGs over the last month due in part to Bradley’s absence. Beal torched the C’s for 35 points on 13-of-26 FG shooting in a narrow loss at the TD Garden two weeks ago and he’s been somewhat quiet since that performance, but is still averaging 16.7 PPG over 6 appearances. He’s simply missed shots recently, but he’s shooting 47.3% from the floor and an impressive 45.2% from downtown at home this season.
Norman Powell (TOR) vs. SA DK:$3,400/FD:$3,900
Toronto may wind up replacing DeRozan by committee, but Powell is the most likely candidate to start for the injured all-star. While he fizzled out in his last start during a 35-point loss in Charlotte, Powell has exceeded value in most of his spot starts for aging SF DeMarre Carroll this season and he’s averaging 14.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.7 steals per 36 minutes. Terrence Ross ($4200/$4000) is also an appealing option as a fill-in for DeRozan, but the Spurs are so disciplined defensively that it might make sense to punt with a versatile player in Powell more than a gunner like T-Ross.
Dejounte Murray ($4500 as PG on DK/$3800) disappointed last night, but still met value and he’ll be worth a look if Parker remains out for the Spurs. Alec Burks ($3000/$3600) played over 20 minutes last night for the first time all season and he’s worth a look as a risky punt on the second half of a B2B set.
Gary Harris ($4700/$5000) has some upside for the Nuggets especially if Emmanuel Mudiay (back) is out, while Jamal Crawford ($4400/$4200) will continue to gun away for the shorthanded Clippers.
Jimmy Butler (CHI) @ ORL: DK:$9,000/FD:$9,600
Butler and his teammates were embarrassed in Atlanta last week and gifted a win over Sacramento the next night, while Butler took a backseat to Dwyane Wade in a throwback effort. That explains Jimmy’s modest FP production in those 2 appearances, but tonight’s road game should be quite competitive and D-Wade is unlikely to go too hard since he’s supposed to play both tonight and tomorrow night in a rare B2B appearance. The Magic gives up the fourth-most FPPG (42.65) to opposing SFs this season and allowed Butler to produce 20 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds and 4 steals when these teams met earlier this year. He should continue to carry his team against a weak defensive team and that makes Butler a solid cash game play with plenty of upside.
Joe Ingles (UTA) @ DEN: DK:$4,900/FD:$4,200
You might want to pay up for a mid-tier option with more upside such as Wilson Chandler ($5800) or Aaron Gordon ($5700) on DraftKings tonight, but Ingles remains one of the best options for salary relief on FanDuel. He only played 22 minutes last night in an effort to match up with the Thunder and to make room for the returning Alec Burks (knee), yet Burks is unlikely to play too many minutes on the second half of a B2B set and of course Rodney Hood (knee) is still out for Utah. With Hood out, Ingles is averaging 23.6 DK PPG over his last 4 appearances and he’s a solid, if unspectacular choice for your cash game lineups as he’ll likely meet value again.
Terrence Ross ($4200/$4000) may have to contend with Kawhi Leonard for stretches, but he’s sporting a 25.5% Usage Rate with DeRozan off the floor and clearly has potential in this spot.
Otto Porter ($6200/$6300) has destroyed the Celtics in two matchups this season and he could maintain that success against one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA.
Markieff Morris (WAS) vs. BOS: DK:$6,300/FD:$6,400
He’s finally found a rhythm with his new team and Morris is getting plenty of opportunities to produce with a willing passer leading the Wizards offense in John Wall. The stretch 4 is averaging 16.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 2.3 APG over 12 games in January and he’s suddenly become a rock solid cash game play in DFS contests. Tonight he’ll face a porous Celtics interior defense that is allowing the tenth-most FPPG (43.41) and sixth-most RPG (12.95) to opposing PFs while ranking 28th in total rebounding this season. Morris went for 14 points on 6-of-21 FG shooting and grabbed 9 boards when these teams met two weeks ago, so he left some FPs out there and could reach his ceiling while he’s very likely to hit a floor of around 30 FPs tonight.
David Lee (SA) @ TOR: DK:$5,900/FD:$5,100
Just like last night, Lee is far less appealing at a rising price tag on DK, but he’s almost a free square on FanDuel as a mid-tier value on that site. The Spurs choose to bring him off the bench last night in part due to the matchup with Brooklyn and in part due to their taxing schedule, so things might change tonight against small-ball Toronto. Lee still met value over 25 minutes of run last night and he’ll be a little more rested ahead of a plus matchup against a team that coughs up the third-most FPPG (45.7) to opposing PFs over the last month. With Patrick Patterson (knee) likely out for Toronto, the Raptors simply don’t have an experience 4 to match up with the crafty veteran.
Ersan Ilyasova ($6000/$6000) remains a rock solid cash game play and he’ll likely benefit with Joel Embiid (knee) out for the 76ers. Also consider Derrick Favors ($5000/$4500) even though it’s the second half of a B2B for Utah.
Darrell Arthur ($3000/$3700) was great in his last appearance while Jusuf Nurkic received a DNP-CD, and Arthur is probable tonight after dealing with knee soreness.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) @ PHO: DK:$10,500/FD:$10,500
Price and matchup considerations can go out the window when you have the clear-cut best option on a short slate. Towns has been on fire lately with averages of 28.6 PPG, 13.2 RPG and 55.3 DK PPG while spurning the notion that he’s less dangerous on the road and coming through in a tough matchup at San Antonio. Now he faces a Suns team that’s posted good DvP splits against centers, but their starting center Tyson Chandler is a bit old to be covering a super-athlete in Towns and that’s why KAT is averaging 25 PPG, 12.5 RPG and 50.1 DK PPG over 2 meetings with Phoenix this year. Fade him at your own risk.
Tyson Chandler (PHO) vs. MIN: DK:$5,700/FD:$6,200
While he has his work cut out for him in guarding Towns, Chandler should play heavy minutes as a result with a great chance to meet value in a high-scoring affair at home. The Wolves are giving up the tenth-most FPPG (47.54) to opposing centers this year and take enough outside shots to give a superb rebounder in TC plenty of opportunities to grab double-digit boards. He’s come alive since missing a game due to illness last week with averages of 15.7 PPG and 13.4 RPG over his last 3 appearances and he’s worth a look as a solid mid-tier option on either main DFS site tonight.
Robin Lopez ($4500/$4600) has put up consistent numbers for the Bulls in 7 straight games and he draws a good matchup tonight against Orlando.
While he failed to grab double-digit boards for the first time in 20-plus games last night, Rudy Gobert ($7300/$8100) is still a great bet for a double double in Denver.