Roto Visionary Post-It Notes—January 30, 2017
FSTA Review Part 3
This is a review of the FSTA Experts Baseball Draft from last Monday night. If you missed the draft live, you can listen to it on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio either on rerun or on demand. The draft had 13 teams including Ron Shandler, Lawr Michaels/Todd Zola, Steve Gardner, Ray Flowers, Baseball HQ’s Ray Murphy and Brent Hershey, Colton and the Wolfman, and many other top notch Fantasy Baseball experts from around the country. The draft lasted 29 rounds and took well over four hours to complete. Over the coming days, I will break down some of the best and worst picks from the draft (including my own) and try to show you how some of the top experts constructed their rosters.
Best Picks of Rounds 5-8
CHC SP Jake Arrieta (5.4 to USA Today): When you can get a pitcher of Jake Arrieta’s ability in the 5th round you know you have done something right at a draft. There will be many people who will argue that Arrieta peaked last season and while I can see their point, I also think that he can repeat what he did last year too. I think he is a lock for 15-18 wins and ERA of around 3.00 and tons of K’s. All in all a terrific value in the 5th round.
CLE SP Carlos Carrasco (6.11 to Mastersball): For years we have been waiting for Carrasco to break through and become one of the top ten pitchers in all of baseball. However each year comes with it, each year seems to have some injury trouble for Carrasco. If he could only stay healthy and throw 220 innings, we might be looking at the AL CY Young award winner.
STL SP Carlos Martinez (7.5 to CDM Sports): CMart might just be my favorite young pitcher right now in the NL. He has gotten better with each passing season, and I think he is on the cusp of greatness. When he was selected, I remember dropping a few choice words as I was hoping to make him the anchor of my rotation.
PHI OF Odubel Herrera (8.6 to FNTSY): Maybe it’s because he plays in Philly, but Herrera is not appreciated as much as he should be. He is capable of hitting .290 with about 15-20 HR and 20-25 SB. Those numbers should make him 3rd round draft eligible, but because the lineup around him is so shaky, he always seems to fall. Great job by the guys at FNTSY for scooping him up in the 8th round.
Worst Picks of Rounds 5-8
TEX C Jonathan Lucroy (5.3 to Mastersball): I like Lucroy in Texas, but I think I have decided to wait on catchers this year. Lucroy will have to hit over .300 with 15-20 HR and 90 or so RBIs to make this pick a value selection.
COL OF David Dahl (7.2 to Colton and the Wolfman): This is one of those selections where I wonder if the team was a bit early on taking the player. I like Dahl and think he has tremendous upside, but is he ready to fulfill those expectations in 2017 or is he a year away? He better hit .290 with 18-80-80-15 for him to be worth a 7th round selection.
KC SP Danny Duffy (8.11 to Masterball): Duffy is a good pitcher but is he an 8th round talent? Or is it because pitching is so thin that he stands out as one of the better arms, so he is worth a selection in this round? I never select need over value, and I think that’s exactly what happened here.
Dr. Roto’s picks
Round 5: PIT OF Gregory Polanco - Polanco was a big target of mine at the draft, and I am psyched to have gotten him exactly where I thought he would go. I think he has 25-25 upside and is ready to break out.
Round 6: BAL OF Mark Trumbo - I’m not sure I love the pick of Trumbo, but I tried to solidify my power numbers which would allow me to take some liberties later on in the draft. I do not expect Trumbo to hit 45+ HRs again, but I will take 35+ to go along with 90 RBIs.
Round 7: HOU 3B Alex Bregman - There’s a great chance that Bregman hits second in the Astros lineup between Springer and Altuve which will give him tons of fastballs to feast on and a great chance to have a successful season. Bregman struggled when he first came up last year, but the Astros stuck with him as opposed to sending him back to the minors. This helped Bregman’s confidence, and it showed as he finally started to hit pretty well towards the end of the season. I think the sky's the limit for him and he continues to mature as a player in 2017.
Round 8: TOR SP Aaron Sanchez - Once I lost Carlos Martinez I targeted Sanchez as my rotation anchor. I was ecstatic that he was available where I got him, and I think he could easily give me 200 innings of Fantasy goodness. Sanchez is a burgeoning young star for the Blue Jays, and it looks as if he is ready to ascend to the next level this season. My projections for him are 200+ innings with a 3.00 ERA and 200+ Ks.
Who else was I thinking of taking?: Polanco, Bregman, and Sanchez were targets of mine, and I was thrilled to have gotten them where I did. I debated the Trumbo pick and thought about taking Carrasco and/or Carlos Martinez at that spot. In the end, I took power over the pitching hoping that I would be able to capitalize later in the draft on arms that people overlooked.