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Plays of the Day
Value: Ivica Zubac has vastly outplayed Timofey Mozgov in recent weeks and he’s finally getting rewarded with at least 21 minutes in each of his last 3 appearances. He’s averaging 15 PPG and 8.7 RPG during that span and he’s still close to the minimum price tag on DK. If Julius Randle is inactive or limited by his illness, Zubac will become a much more appealing play, as he boasts a 22.5% Usage Rate and averages 0.95 FPs per minute when Randle is off the floor this season.
Fade: John Wall draws a great matchup on paper tonight at home against the lowly Lakers, but some matchups are too good to be true. These teams are headed in opposite directions and if the Wizards wind up putting a beating on the visiting Lakers, Wall will probably fall short of value even if he posts a modest double double.
Games to Target
- Los Angeles Clippers (+8.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 227.5)
- Houston Rockets (-9.5) hosting Atlanta Hawks (Over/Under = 225.5)
Stephen Curry (GSW) @ LAC DK:$8,700/FD:$9,600
Steph is on one right now and he might actually get to play in the fourth quarter tonight with Blake Griffin stepping up and the Clippers looking to avenge last week’s embarrassing beat down at Oracle Arena. In any case, the Warriors (-8) are going to be motivated to rub the Clippers faces in the dirt if they can and Curry is certainly capable of leading the charge. He’s an absurd 26-of-42 (62%) from downtown over his last three games and has looked like the unstoppable player who earned B2B MVPs over the last two seasons. With Chris Paul out, the Clippers have little chance of containing Curry with Raymond Felton and Austin Rivers rotating into the lineup and the sharpshooter is clearly under priced on DK right now.
D’Angelo Russell (LAL) @ WAS DK:$5,700/FD:$6,100
While John Wall is worth fading tonight because of his pass-first approach on the offensive end and the likelihood that the Wizards (-11) will win in blowout fashion at home, Russell is worth a look as one of the few Lakers who could play well enough to give Washington a run. The second-year PG returned from a calf injury in impressive fashion with the first double double of his career (22 points, 10 assists, 7 rebounds) in a fantastic matchup against the Nuggets on Tuesday. Now he faces a Wizards team that is solid against opposing PGs, but ranks 20th in opponents FG shooting (.458%) and can get into shootouts at times.
Raymond Felton ($4900/$4600) is a good value option to consider in a fast-paced matchup with the Warriors.
Dennis Schroder ($6400/$6700) has been very inconsistent lately, but so has the Rockets backcourt defense.
James Harden (HOU) vs. ATL DK:$12,400/FD:$12,000
Although he’s dropped two relative duds in a row and is still extremely pricey, Harden is worth jamming into lineups on a short slate tonight. He only fell short of value on Tuesday because the Kings weren’t competitive at all, but tonight his Rockets (-9) host a Hawks team that can keep pace with top offenses and actually beat Houston 112-97 back in November. Harden fell one rebound shy of a triple double (30 points, 11 assists, 9 rebounds) in that tilt and he’s clearly motivated to face off with estranged former teammate Dwight Howard. Atlanta coughs up the seventh-most FPPG (39.75) and fourth-most PPG (23.86) to opposing SGs over the last month and will have little answers for The Beard tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (ATL) @ HOU DK:$4,200/FD:$4,900
If you need to find value at this position consider Harden’s direct adversary since The Beard rarely plays stout defense. Hardaway has become much more reliable with Kyle Korver no longer in a Hawks uniform and the fact that he logged 58 minutes in the Hawks 4OT win over the Knicks indicates how HC Mike Budenholzer feels about the Michigan product right now. Tonight Timmy should be rested after logging just 26 minutes in a blowout loss on the front end of a B2B set and he faces a Rockets team that gives up the eighth-most FPPG (38.97) to opposing SGs and the seventh-most PPG (108) overall this season.
Lou Williams ($5700/$6500) is a relative value with plenty of upside as the Lakers look to keep pace in Washington.
It’s a revenge game for Nick Young ($4100/$4300) in Washington and he’s a high risk/reward value play to consider in that road tilt.
Kevin Durant (GSW) @ LAC: DK:$10,300/FD:$10,700
The question tonight is whether you want to pay up for Durant or Kawhi and since KD has a little more upside at a slight pay bump, he makes more sense in tournament formats tonight. Both players are at risk of playing limited minutes in blowout wins, yet the Spurs (-15) are far bigger favorites at home against a Sixers team that will be without Joel Embiid (knee) again. The Dubs are certainly capable of crushing the Clippers on the road tonight, but KD is actually averaging more PPG (26.3) while playing slightly more MPG (34.2) on the road this season as the Warriors average margin of victory (+9.1) is much slimmer away from Oracle Arena. Durant posted 16 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in an easy win at Staples Center in early December and went 9-of-11 from the field while logging just 28 minutes when Curry went nuts against the Clips last week. If anything changes tonight in terms of Curry’s output or the Clippers defensive scheme, the Slim Reaper will reap the benefits.
Andre Iguodala (GSW) @ LAC: DK:$4,000/FD:$4,400
Until his price tag rises to the mid-tier range, Iguodala will remain an easy choice for cash game lineups when it’s necessary to find some value. The Warriors Sixth Man is posting modest averages of 6.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG and 3.7 APG over his last 16 appearances yet that’s been enough to meet or exceed value in 10 of his last 11 games. His production spikes a bit when the Warriors have faced the Clippers twice this season because they’re so likely to blow out their hated rivals and Iguodala is almost always at the epicenter of those Golden State explosions as the leader of the second unit.
Trevor Ariza ($5100/$5300) is a cash game play with more upside than Iguodala in a decent matchup against Atlanta tonight.
On the other side of the ball, the volatile Kent Bazemore ($5300/$5000) could have another good game against the fast-paced Rockets.
Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. GSW: DK:$7,700/FD:$9,200
He can likely be ignored at the top of the board on FanDuel, but Griffin is certainly worth a look as an upper-tier option with upside on DK this evening. The Clippers star proved to be regaining his rhythm with 29 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 50 DK points (49.1 FD points) in a win at Phoenix last night and the most important number in his stat line might be the 34 minutes that he played. If he’s good to go on the second half of a B2B set, Blake will be asked to do a lot against the high-scoring Warriors with CP3 inactive. He’s been quiet against the Dubs in two blowout losses this season but averaged 25 PPG, 8 RPG and 5.5 APG over 2 meetings against Golden State last season and he’s sporting a 28.6% Usage Rate while averaging 1.33 FPs per minute when Paul is off the floor this year.
Markieff Morris (WAS) vs. LAL: DK:$6,800/FD:$7,500
Again, I don’t love Morris at his price tag on FanDuel when Draymond Green is available at a similar price, but he’s a very solid mid-tier option on DK and a reliable cash game play regardless of his cost. The Wizards PF averaged 17.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG and 2.2 APG while shooting 48.8% from the floor during January and begins this month with a fantastic matchup against a Lakers team that coughs up the most FPPG (46.44) to opposing PFs on the season. Julius Randle (illness) is questionable to suit up for the Purple and Gold as well, which would open the door for Morris to abuse slow-footed replacements such as Tarik Black and Larry Nance Jr.
Dario Saric ($4300/$4400) struggled early on but still managed to meet value last night with Joel Embiid (knee) out and he’ll be worth a look if Robert Covington (hand) can’t go.
Ryan Anderson ($5200/$5900) has finally caught fire for the Rockets and he could keep rolling at home tonight.
Dwight Howard (ATL) @ HOU: DK:$6,900/FD:$7,100
This position is so weak tonight that you might as well stroll down #NarrativeStreet and play a big man that will be motivated to face his former team. Howard turned up for a meeting with the Rockets earlier this season to produce 20 points, 15 boards and 2 blocks in a winning effort and he should be able to put up a double double at the very least in a fast-paced tilt on the road this evening. Houston is giving up the eighth-most FPPG (51.33) and BPG (2.5) to opposing centers over the last month as the Rockets continue to rotate skinny young Clint Capela with ancient backup Nene Hilario, leaving them very vulnerable down low.
Ivica Zubac (LAL) @ WAS: DK:$3,900/FD:$4,700
Here’s a great option if you’re willing to punt the center position and pay up for studs elsewhere tonight. Zubac has vastly outplayed Timofey Mozgov in recent weeks and he’s finally getting rewarded with at least 21 minutes in each of his last 3 appearances. He’s averaging 15 PPG and 8.7 RPG during that span and he’s still close to the minimum price tag on DK. If Julius Randle is inactive or limited by his illness, Zubac will become a much more appealing play, as he boasts a 22.5% Usage Rate and averages 0.95 FPs per minute when Randle is off the floor this season.
I would still look for Clint Capela ($4700/$4900) to hold his own against Howard and meet value tonight. Javale McGee ($3000/$3500) is a risky punt play to consider with Zaza Pachulia out and the Warriors facing DeAndre Jordan and the Clips tonight.
The often overlooked Marcin Gortat ($6000/$6700) could exceed value in a plus matchup against the Lakers this evening.