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Plays of the Day
Value: Ty Lawson was taken off the Kings injury report with a mild hand injury and played very well with 18 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists over 28 minutes against the Suns last night. He draws another good matchup tonight against the fast-paced Warriors and he comes at a dirt cheap price tag on DK.
Fade: Despite the fact that he posted a triple double in a narrow loss to Phoenix last night, DeMarcus Cousins is very tough to trust with the Warriors (-14) heavily favored in Sacramento this evening. Golden State limited the big man to just 17 points with 7 turnovers in a blowout win over the Kings earlier this season and Big Cuz has struggled historically when playing on 0 days rest.
Games to Target
- Phoenix Suns (PK) hosting Milwaukee Bucks (Over/Under = 219)
- New York Knicks (+6.5) hosting Cleveland Cavs (Over/Under = 218.5)
Stephen Curry (GSW) @ SAC DK:$9,600/FD:$9,700
The two-time reigning MVP is playing like the best offensive player in the league once again but is not quite priced like it yet on either main DFS site. Curry is averaging 32 PPG and 7.8 APG while shooting a scorching 52.5% (32-of-61) from downtown and 53.7% from the field over his last 5 appearances. Golden State is starting to run it’s offense through Curry more often now that Kevin Durant has been integrated into the league’s best often and both superstar should have a great game tonight against a Kings team that ranks 26th in opponents 3PT shooting (.374%) and gives up the ninth-most FPPG (44.96) to opposing PGs over the last month.
Jrue Holiday (NO) @ WAS DK:$7,400/FD:$8,000
Holiday also appears to be under priced on DK, as he’s less expensive than he’s been in weeks after dropping a double double in a 20-point loss at Detroit on Wednesday. The Pelicans are running everything through their dangerous PG or Anthony Davis and Holiday is thriving with averages of 24.7 PPG and 9 APG over his last 6 appearances. He’s provided at least 3x returns on value in 5 of those starts and is sporting a 38.7% Assist Rate over the last month. While he’ll be asked to match up with John Wall in a tough matchup, Holiday should be able to score enough to keep New Orleans (+7.5) relatively close on the road tonight.
Ty Lawson ($3900/$4300) apparently wasn’t bothered at all by a hand injury as he exceeded value by a wide margin with 18 points over 28 minutes last night.
With Kemba Walker (illness) questionable and Ramon Sessions (knee) out indefinitely, Brian Roberts ($3000/$3500) could become a sneaky punt play as the only healthy PG for the Hornets.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) @ PHO DK:$10,300 as PG/SF/FD:$10,500
Fresh off an excellent outing against the Nuggets porous defense, Giannis should remain in your crosshairs on the second half of a B2B set against another one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Phoenix is ranked 27th in defensive rating while giving up the second-most PPG (112.3) and third-most PPG (24.96) to opposing PGs this season. The Suns are giving up 114 PPG over their last 14 contests and struggle to defend athletic guards such as The Greek Freak, who got back to his productive ways with a full line in Denver last night and more than capable of exceeding value in this plus matchup.
Devin Booker (PHO) vs. MIL DK:$6,600/FD:$6,900
I don’t see any reason to fade Booker in cash games after he proved to be a great play in any format last night. The second-year man out of Kentucky extended his 20-point scoring streak to 15 games and then some with 33 points and 46 DK points (43.4 FD points) in a narrow win at Sacramento on Friday. Now he’ll return home to face a Bucks team that happens to give up the most PPG (26.21) to opposing SGs over the last month by far and he hasn’t failed to meet value in Phoenix since all the way back on December 13 when the Suns hosted the Knicks. Get him into your cash game lineups for some safety on this full slate.
It’s time to pounce on Evan Fournier ($5000/$5000) as a mid-tier play now that he appeared to be healthy in last night’s win over Toronto. Also consider Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5100/$5200) as more of a boom-bust play in that contest.
Jamal Murray ($3600/$3800 as PG on FD) is more of a longshot tonight in a tough matchup at San Antonio, but he’s still producing great numbers on a per-minute basis.
LeBron James (CLE) @ NYK: DK:$10,500/FD:$11,500
It’s going to be tough to afford The King at that price tag on FanDuel, yet he’s almost a must play as a definite triple double threat at a reasonable price on DraftKings tonight. James almost always turns up for matchups with the Knicks, as he’s averaging 22 PPG, 10.5 APG and 8.5 RPG over 2 meetings with New York this year and went for 31 points in one trip and a 27-point triple double in his 2 appearances at Madison Square Garden last season. The Knicks are obviously struggling defensively right now, giving up the sixth-most PPG (108.5) and ranking 24th in defensive rating, while James just put up a monster line to lead the Cavs to a much needed blowout win over the Wolves and should be even more productive if Cleveland (-6.5) struggles to close out this game on the road.
Wilson Chandler (DEN) @ SA: DK:$6,100/FD:$5,900
The sledding might be a bit tougher for Chandler tonight after he ripped through the Bucks weak defense for 23 points over 41 minutes last night, but he’s definitely worth a look with Danilo Gallinari inactive. WilChan sports a 27% Usage Rate and averages 1.03 FPs per minute with Gallo off the floor this year and he put up decent numbers with 11 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists over just 24 minutes in a meeting with the Spurs earlier this season. While a matchup against Kawhi Leonard is far from ideal, Chandler is averaging 18.4 points, 8 rebounds and 2.5 assists per 36 minutes this year and he should see a full slate of run this evening.
Indeed, Matt Barnes ($4000/$4000) logged 39 minutes with Garrett Temple (hamstring) on the shelf and he’ll be needed to matchup with the Warriors Death Lineup this evening.
You could use T.J. Warren ($4000/$4000) as a longshot value play with upside tonight in a plus matchup. Definitely consider Kawhi Leonard ($9300/$9700) in all formats if LaMarcus Aldridge (knee) misses another game for the Spurs.
Nikola Jokic (DEN) @ SA: DK:$8,900 as C/FD:$10,300
His alleged minutes restriction was thrown out the window as Jokic carried the Nuggets to a win over Milwaukee tonight and he’s clearly under priced if he’s not going to be affected by his hip injury or held under 30 minutes by the coaching staff. He’ll draw a tougher matchup tonight after posting a triple double over 32 minutes last night, but the Spurs are actually giving up the fourth-most RPG (13.23) and an above average 21.54 PPG to opposing PFs over the last month, while they were just torched by the Sixers Ersan Ilyasova with LaMarcus Aldridge unavailable. If LMA is out again, Jokic should have his way against David Lee, Dewayne Dedmon and the rest of San Antonio’s backup bigs.
Ersan Ilyasova (PHI) @ MIA: DK:$6,500/FD:$6,100
With Joel Embiid (knee) expected to sit tonight and Nerlens Noel dealing with a rather serious illness, the Sixers are extremely shorthanded up front. Both players could miss tonight’s contest along with Robert Covington (hand), which would open up more opportunities for Ghostface Ilya after he went for a team-high 25 points and 10 rebounds over 38 minutes at the Spurs on Thursday. Facing San Antonio is pretty much the toughest matchup imaginable, so it’s certainly worth using Ilyasova again when he faces a Miami team that uses several different PFs including a natural SF in James Johnson. Additionally, Jahlil Okafor has been an absolute disaster on defense lately, so Ilyasova should see more playing time and usage than Philly’s likely starter at center.
Dario Saric ($4800/$4400) remains a serviceable play as long as Covington is out for the Sixers. David Lee ($5900/$5600) and David Bertans ($3800/$3700 as SF on FD) will both become excellent options if Aldridge is out for the Spurs.
Kristaps Porzingis ($6700/$6600) is due for a big game if he can finally stay out of foul trouble. Serge Ibaka ($6200/$6200) exceeded value in a third straight appearance and is worth riding until he slows down.
Hassan Whiteside (MIA) vs. PHI: DK:$7,600/FD:$8,800
The best way to target the Sixers injured front court might be by using the opposition’s big man in Whiteside. He finally came alive with 18 points and 18 boards to exceed value in a blowout win over Atlanta on Wednesday and now he’ll face a Philadelphia team that’s giving up the fourth-most FPPG (52.9) and most PPG (26.14) to opposing centers over the last month. The Sixers are obviously ill equipped to match up with Mr. Whiteside with Joel Embiid inactive, as Jahlil Okafor is one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA right now, so look for Miami to own the paint and feed their center this evening.
Rudy Gobert (UTA) vs. CHA: DK:$7,500/FD:$7,900
Gobert is in a similar situation to Whiteside in the sense that the opposition has no one that can matchup with him. The Hornets have already ruled out Cody Zeller (quad) for a sixth straight game and they just traded away all their depth down low by giving up Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes for the inexperienced Miles Plumlee. Along with Plumlee, natural PFs Christian Wood and Frank Kaminsky are the only options to guard Gobert, who is third in the NBA in total rebounds and first in blocks per game (2.5). The Stifle Tower is coming off a monster double double (26 points, 15 rebounds) and he should keep rolling against a Hornets squad that gives up the fifth-most FPPG (49.38) to opposing centers this season.
Guillermo Hernangomez ($4500/$5300) continued to flash upside despite the return of Kristaps Porzingis (illness) on Wednesday. Javale McGee ($3700/$3700) is more of a true punt play to consider despite his lack of playing time as the Warriors starting center.
Dwight Howard ($7200/$7400) was a beast against the Rockets on Thursday and he could continue his revenge tour by burning another former team in Orlando this evening.