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Scouting The NBA DFS - Monday, February 6

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Plays of the Day

Value: Matt Barnes was a main reason for the Kings upset win over the Warriors on Saturday with a 14-point, 11-rebound double double and he’s now exceeded value in 4 straight appearances while logging 34.9 MPG over his last 3 games. It’s no coincidence that Garrett Temple (hamstring) and Omri Casspi (foot) have both been inactive for Sacramento over the last couple weeks, so Barnes is looking at a steady role for his team going forward.

Fade: Russell Westbrook is far too expensive to be included in balanced lineups tonight and he’s facing a Pacers team that was able to hold James Harden in check a couple of weeks ago. With Victor Oladipo flashing improved offensive ability lately, the Thunder would be wise to use more of a spread approach on that end.

Games to Target

  1. Washington Wizards (-1) hosting Cleveland Cavs (Over/Under = 217.5)
  2. New York Knicks (-5) hosting Los Angeles Lakers (Over/Under = 222.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

John Wall (WAS) vs. CLE DK:$10,500/FD:$10,600

Two red-hot teams face off with the Wizards hosting the resurgent Cavs tonight in a game that you’re going to want to target by considering the best players on both teams. Wall’s matchup is particularly appealing against a Cleveland team that’s fallen apart defensively and is giving up the sixth-most FPPG (44.63) and PPG (24.26) to opposing PGs this season. The Wizards pass-first PG is most likely to fall short of value in blowout wins where he doesn’t have to do much offensively, but the Cavs (+1) are expected to give Washington a hell of a fight tonight and Wall’s been great at home as per usual with averages of 24.6 PPG on 47.6% FG shooting this season.

Jrue Holiday (NO) vs. PHO DK:$7,900/FD:$8,000

I would definitely consider Eric Bledsoe ($7900/$9300) at the same price tag on DK, but he’s a bit expensive on FD in a prime matchup for both guards. The Pelicans host a Suns team tonight that’s ranked 28th in defensive rating and coughs up the second-most PPG (112.6) along with the third-most PPG (24.94) to opposing PGs this season. Holiday’s been doing plenty of damage by scoring, but he flirted with a triple double in his last appearance and is sporting an impressive 39.3% Assist Rate over the last month for New Orleans. He’s met or exceeded value in 7 straight appearances despite the Pelicans poor results during that span and New Orleans (-5.5) is actually a sizable favorite at home tonight, so it’s well worth targeting Jrue as an upper-tier option with a good floor-ceiling combination tonight.

Potential Value

Fred VanVleet ($3000/$3600) continued to outplay backup PG Cory Joseph and he could step up even more tonight if Kyle Lowry (illness) doesn’t have anything left in the tank following his heroic performance on Sunday.

Longshot

As long as Deron Williams (toe) remains out, Yogi Ferrell ($6000/$5600) will be worth using in prime spots such as tonight’s matchup at Denver. Also consider Michael Carter-Williams ($4100/$4700) if Jimmy Butler is out and Sergio Rodriguez ($3500/$3500) if T.J. McConnell is out.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Dwyane Wade (CHI) @ SAC DK:$7,500/FD:$7,800

His status as a top play depends in some respects on the status of Jimmy Butler (heel), but the Bulls other star missed practice on Sunday and is clearly in some serious pain after missing Friday’s game at the very last minute due to that injury. With Butler off the court, Wade sports a lofty 40.5% Usage Rate and averages 1.15 FPs per minute while he attempted a team-high 22 FGs and approached a triple double in Friday’s OT loss at Houston. Tonight he faces a Kings team that he burned for 30 points (including 2 game-winning FTs on a phantom call) a couple of weeks ago and Sacramento is giving up the fourth-most PPG (24.22) to opposing SGs on the season, so D-Wade will have plenty of upside if he’s the unquestioned top option in Chicago’s offense.

Devin Booker (PHO) @ NO DK:$6,900/FD:$7,100

There are a couple of ways to look at Booker’s incredible performance on Saturday night. You could say that the second-year SG is rising to the ranks of the elite with a 27-point quarter, or you could say that he’s a lackluster DFS play because he only managed to score 31 total points and produce a meager 40.75 DK points (35.6 FD points) while getting shutdown throughout the second half of that game. Yet he remains a very solid cash game play with 20-plus points in 16 consecutive games and he draws another great matchup tonight against New Orleans’ 23rd-ranked scoring defense. The Pelicans cough up the eighth-most FPPG (40.6) and ninth-most PPG (23.15) to opposing SGs over the last month and Booker’s dropped 54 points through 2 meetings with New Orleans already this season.

Potential Value

C.J. Miles ($4200/$4100 as SF) is rounding back into form for the Pacers and he should see an expanded role with Thaddeus Young (wrist) ruled out tonight.

Longshot

Victor Oladipo ($5600/$5700) caught fire in Portland yesterday and he’s worth a look in another plus matchup at Indiana tonight. Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5500/$5200) has been red-hot for Atlanta and is worth a look despite drawing a tough matchup against Utah.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

LeBron James (CLE) @ WAS: DK:$10,400/FD:$11,200

Like Wall, LeBron should take a much more aggressive approach in a game that’s projected to go down to the wire in Washington tonight. Cleveland should get Kyrie Irving (quad) back for this game, but he could be a bit hobbled and might struggle in a tough matchup against Wall and a Wizards team that’s solid in terms of DvP against opposing PGs. LeBron should able to dominate skinny young Otto Porter at the 3, as he managed to produce 27 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists the last time the Cavs faced the Wizards. With both Irving and Kevin Love (back) battling injuries, it will fall on the King’s shoulders to keep Cleveland’s momentum going with another win.

Matt Barnes (SAC) vs. CHI: DK:$4,900/FD:$3,800

Barnes is closer to a must play at that price tag on FanDuel but he’s worth a look on either main DFS site tonight given his role. If Jimmy Butler is out or limited by his injury, the Kings wing players will find life to be much easier offensively while Barnes won’t get as exhausted from his defensive efforts. The gritty defender was a main reason for the Kings upset win over the Warriors on Saturday with a 14-point, 11- rebound double double and he’s now exceeded value in 4 straight appearances while logging 34.9 MPG over his last 3 games. It’s no coincidence that Garrett Temple (hamstring) and Omri Casspi (foot) have both been inactive for Sacramento over the last couple weeks, so Barnes is looking at a steady role for his team going forward.

Potential Value

Shabazz Muhammad ($4300/$4700) was a bit under whelming in his first appearance since Zach LaVine was ruled out for the season, but he could bounce back in an easier test against Miami.

Longshot

Andrew Wiggins ($7100/$7400) is also worth a look for the Wolves with LaVine done for the year.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Blake Griffin (LAC) @ TOR: DK:$8,800/FD:$9,200

While Griffin was a bit underwhelming in a sleepy performance at the TD Garden yesterday, it’s time for the Clippers to wake up and start winning some games to avoid dropping way down in the WCF playoff picture. It will fall on his shoulders to lead this offense with Chris Paul (thumb) out indefinitely and Blake is certainly capable of thriving against a Raptors team that gives up the fourth-most RPG (12.94) and an above average 43.07 FPPG to opposing PFs this season. Toronto might be without Patrick Patterson (knee) and they’ve been using Lucas Noguiera at the 4, so Griffin should be able to exploit that matchup with his quickness.

Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) vs. LAL: DK:$6,700/FD:$6,600

Patience is a virtue in NBA DFS, and if you’ve been targeting Porzingis with limited payoffs since he’s returned from an Achilles injury it’s time to use that patience and give him one more try as an under priced stud. The Unicorn has been limited by foul trouble more often than his illness or injuries, but tonight he’ll face a Lakers team with a limited PF in Julius Randle (illness), so he should be able to stay on the floor against backups such as Tarik Black and Larry Nance Jr. The Lakers are giving up the most FPPG (46.18) to opposing PFs this season and Porzingis happened to torch them for 26 points, 13 rebounds and 7 blocks in the sole meeting between this teams earlier this season.

Potential Value

Dario Saric ($4400/$4400) and Richaun Holmes ($4000/$3600) should both see expanded roles with Joel Embiid (knee) out and both Robert Covington (hand) and Jahlik Okafor (knee) questionable for Philly tonight.

Longshot

Lavoy Allen ($3700 as C on DK/$3500) was a monster in a spot start for Thaddeus Young on Saturday and he should at least provide modest returns in a tougher matchup against the Thunder.

Centers

Two Studs

DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) vs. CHI: DK:$10,900/FD:$11,000

There’s simply no equal for Cousins right now at his position in real or fantasy terms. He posted a triple double on Friday and debunked all concerns about his ability to perform on 0 days rest or step up against an elite opponent by coming one assist shy of a triple double in a win over the Warriors the next night. Now he’ll face a Bulls team that he burned for 42 points and 14 rebounds before getting absolutely jobbed out of a chance to go to OT thanks to a phantom foul call on Wade’s missed dunk attempt. There are #NarrativeStreet implications tonight as Boogie seeks his revenge against the referees, the Bulls, and anyone else who gets in his way.

Andre Drummond (DET) vs. PHI: DK:$8,300/FD:$8,500

He’s certainly not the safest play on this massive slate, but Drummond has as much upside as any big man on the board including Big Cuz. The Sixers are completely helpless to stop true centers when Joel Embiid (knee) is out and the big man is not expected to play tonight. With skinny backup Nerlens Noel (illness) hobbled and poor defender Jahlik Okafor (knee) out on Saturday, this team gave up a double double to Miami’s Hassan Whiteside in the first quarter alone, coughing up a massive 30-point, 20-rebound performance to the Heat center over just 27 minutes. Drummond possesses a similar skill set as the league’s leader in defensive rebounding rate (36%) and he dominated the Sixers in the past before Embiid turned that franchise around.

Potential Value

Guillermo Hernangomez ($5200/$5300) is thriving as the Knicks new primary option at center and his role is secure with Joakim Noah (hamstring) inactive tonight.

Longshot

Nikola Jokic ($9000/$10,900 as PF on FD) makes for a great tournament option on DK as he should bounce back from a foul-plagued outing at San Antonio.


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