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Plays of the Day
Value: Clint Capela is averaging 15 PPG and 7.8 RPG despite playing just 25.2 MPG over his last 5 appearances and the Rockets are turning him loose now, as he’s played 63 minutes over his last 2 games. They’ll need him down low tonight to match up with Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic, while Capela has displayed great chemistry with James Harden in PnR sets to generate his offense. Give him a look tonight as a great cash game option.
Fade: Damian Lillard is expected to play through an ankle injury tonight but he’s hard to trust against a Mavericks defense that’s done a good job against opposing PGs this season. With Yogi Ferrell and Seth Curry logging heavy minutes, Dallas is much quicker defensively and capable of slowing down Dame Dolla.
Games to Target
- Dallas Mavericks (+1.5) hosting Portland Blazers (Over/Under = 205.5)
- Charlotte Hornets (-10.5) hosting Brooklyn Nets (Over/Under = 217.5)
Kemba Walker (CHA) vs. BKN DK:$8,900/FD:$8,500
While the Hornets are one of two home teams that are heavily favored on this short slate, they could wind up in a high-scoring affair with the fastest-paced offensive team in the NBA. Brooklyn is always a defense to target, as the Nets give up the most PPG (114.2) and rank 24th in opponents FG shooting (.464%) on the season. Brooklyn also coughs up the most FPPG (46.69) to opposing PGs this season and Kemba went for 30 points the first time these teams met back in November. He’s been inconsistent lately, but has faced some tough matchups on the road, and tonight Walker should continue to work on his positive home/road splits, as he’s averaging 24.1 PPG on 46.2% FG shooting in Charlotte this year.
Yogi Ferrell (DAL) vs. POR DK:$6,000/FD:$6,100
This is the only game that is expected to go down to the wire tonight and that makes Ferrell an obvious cash game play assuming Deron Williams (toe) remains out for the Mavs. Dallas HC Rick Carlisle said that D-Will should return “sometime soon” but he’s doubtful to suit up on the second half of a B2B set, leaving the speedy Ferrell to run the offense in a great matchup. Portland is ranked 27th in defensive rating and coughs up the fifth-most PPG (109.8) in the NBA along with the most DK PPG to opposing PGs this season. Even when he doesn’t shoot the lights out as he did in Portland over the weekend, Ferrell can meet value at this mid-tier price tag and he’s clearly a problem for the Blazers backcourt.
Patrick Beverley ($5200/$5600) is a solid cash game play with limited upside in a good matchup against Orlando.
You can’t really predict which PG will step up for Brooklyn but, Spencer Dinwiddie ($3300/$3700) seems to have more upside than Isaiah Whitehead ($3200/$3500) with Jeremy Lin (hamstring) inactive.
James Harden (HOU) vs. ORL DK:$13,300/FD:$12,700
In an effort to prevent Harden from being 90% owned on this ultra short slate, DraftKings boosted his price tag to astronomical heights to make people think twice about squeezing him into lineups. Yet he’s the best option on the board by far and there simply aren’t too many other expensive plays to use if you decide to fade Harden. While the last matchup between these teams was surprisingly low scoring and Harden posted just 14 points, 10 assists and 6 turnovers in a lackluster performance, he’s certainly capable of filling it up if Orlando comes with more fight offensively. Getting Evan Fournier back as well as an improved Serge Ibaka should help the Magic compete and this is a team that’s coughing up the most FPPG (48.28) and fourth-most APG (9.31) to opposing PGs over the last month.
Wesley Matthews (DAL) vs. POR DK:$5,800/FD:$5,800
As predicted in this daily article, Matthews finally stepped up to burn his former team as the Mavericks beat the Blazers, 108-104, last weekend. He looked like he was shot out of a cannon in that game and dropped 27 points on efficient 8-of-17 shooting before following that up by flirting with a triple double (10 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists) in Denver last night. Now he’ll return home to face the Blazers once again and he happens to shoot an impressive 42% from downtown in Dallas this season. The sharpshooting wing is benefitting from the solid play of new PG Yogi Ferrell, as the Mavericks slow-paced offense is moving the ball and getting more shots per game thanks to the rookie’s play, so feel free to use him as a mid-tier option with some upside.
Eric Gordon ($5400/$5500) is the cash game play if you believe Houston will win comfortably, while Evan Fournier ($5600/$5600) is the GPP play in the same price range if you want to gamble on the Magic keeping it close.
Sean Kilpatrick ($4300/$4000) exceeded value on Sunday afternoon and he could thrive once again with Caris LeVert (knee) out for the Nets. C.J. McCollum ($7300/$8200) is dangerous of course and he might see more usage if Dame Lillard (ankle) is limited tonight.
Nicolas Batum (CHA) vs. BKN: DK:$7,600/FD:$7,400 as SG
You can call Batum the sneakiest triple double threat in the NBA right now with averages of 15.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 6.3 APG at home this season. His production has been lighter of late, but he’s averaging 19.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 4.3 APG over 3 matchups with the Nets and the fact that Brooklyn plays at the fastest pace in the NBA certainly bodes well for a stat-stuffer like Batum. Brooklyn allows the most FPPG (44.29) to opposing SFs by far and gives up the second-most RPG (9.25) to that position on the year because of their blinding pace. That explains Batum’s lofty rebounding average and his assist totals could certainly rise in any given game if his teammates happen to shoot off his ball rotation. If you’re going the route of a balanced lineup without Harden, Batum could be one of the upper-tier additions that helps your total FP totals rise.
Aaron Gordon (ORL) @ HOU: DK:$4,600/FD:$4,600
He comes with plenty of risk considering the spread on this game (Orlando is +11) and the volatile nature of his production, but AG could also become the GPP play of the day if he finds room to operate in a potentially high-scoring affair. Even when the Magic struggle offensively, Gordon tends to get his, as he did when Orlando lost 100-93 to Houston a couple of weeks ago and on Saturday with 16 points during a blowout loss in Atlanta over the weekend. So, he might have upside even if you think the Rockets will cover the spread and win easily at home. Houston does give up the fifth-most FPPG (39.69) and second-most PPG (21.76) to opposing SFs this season and has struggled to match up with superb athletes such as Gordon.
Evan Turner ($5000/$4800) continues to provide solid returns as the Blazers starting SF.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4200/$4200) has potential with the Nets missing LeVert.
Serge Ibaka (ORL) @ HOU: DK:$6,200/FD:$5,900
Despite trade rumors swirling around Orlando’s new PF, Ibaka is playing some of his best ball of the season. Prior to the teams’ collective dud in Atlanta on Saturday, he had produced 57 points, 31 rebounds and at least 40 DK points over his previous 3 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a Houston squad that he produced 16 points and 12 rebounds against earlier this season and allows the sixth-most FPPG (44.4) to opposing PFs on the year. The Rockets rank 22nd in opponents FG shooting (.462%) and their interior defense can be really lackluster, so look for Ibaka and/or teammate Nikola Vucevic to have solid games down low tonight.
Trevor Booker (BKN) @ CHA: DK:$5,000/FD:$5,200
He’s been under priced lately due to an illness from a couple of weeks ago and Booker should fly under the radar since he last exceeded value on Super Bowl Sunday on another very short slate. Tonight he could serve as the best per dollar play at PF once again in a matchup against a Hornets team that’s giving up the tenth-most FPPG (211.65) to all five positions over the last month. Booker’s averaging 10.8 PPG and 7.6 RPG despite playing just 20.6 MPG over his last 5 appearances and his playing time should only increase as he works his way back to full health.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5200/$5300) is another solid cash game play for the Blazers in what should be a close game at Dallas.
Frank Kaminsky ($4700/$4500) played 32 minutes in Utah over the weekend and he could see more minutes at the 5 tonight after Charlotte traded Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert.
Brook Lopez (BKN) @ CHA: DK:$7,000/FD:$7,600
BroLo hasn’t flashed much upside lately, but he’s certainly capable of coming through with a big game in this plus matchup. As mentioned above, the Hornets are struggling defensively over the last month and have been vulnerable down low all season, as they allow the fourth-most FPPG (49.38) to opposing centers on the year. Trading away two of the big men in their rotation can’t really help that issue, and Cody Zeller (quad) could miss a seventh consecutive game with that injury, which would open up the middle for Lopez. He’s averaging 21 PPG and 35 DK PPG over 3 meetings with Charlotte this season and could serve as a valuable correlation play if you’re using Walker and/or Batum on the Hornets side of the ball tonight.
Clint Capela (HOU) vs. ORL: DK:$5,300/FD:$5,100
Here’s the safe value play to consider tonight if you simply want to guarantee a decent amount of production from the center position. Capela is averaging 15 PPG and 7.8 RPG despite playing just 25.2 MPG over his last 5 appearances and the Rockets are turning him loose now, as he’s played 63 minutes over his last 2 games. They’ll need him down low tonight to match up with Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic, while Capela has displayed great chemistry with James Harden in PnR sets to generate his offense. Give him a look tonight as a great cash game option.
If Cody Zeller ($4500/$5400) does return tonight he’ll be worth a look as a value on DK.
Mason Plumlee ($5900/$6400) has been quiet lately, but he definitely has upside in a great matchup against the Mavericks.