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Plays of the Day
Value: Brandon Ingram should continue to see run as the Lakers focus on player development in a lost season. He’s one of the best options to defend the Bucks lengthy wings due to his rangy frame and he’s facing a Milwaukee team that gives up the second-most FPPG (40.81) and fourth-most PPG (20.85) to opposing SFs this season and Ingram has averaged 14.7 PPG and 5.3 RPG while shooting an efficient 16-of-31 from the floor over his last 3 appearances.
Fade: DeMarcus Cousins is always a high-upside option but I think you can get away with using a different center on an appealing full slate tonight. Dwight Howard and the Hawks have been very solid down low and they held Boogie to just 14 points in a meeting earlier this season.
Games to Target
- New York Knicks (-2) hosting Denver Nuggets (Over/Under = 229)
- Minnesota Wolves (-4) hosting New Orlenas Pelicans (Over/Under = 218.5)
Jrue Holiday (NO) @ MIN DK:$7,800/FD:$7,900
He had a rare quiet game over the last couple of weeks as the Pelicans were smacked by the Jazz in Utah, but Holiday is now even more under priced ahead of a much easier matchup. The Wolves are ranked 25th in defensive rating and give up the seventh-most APG (8.67) along with an above average 22.23 PPG to opposing PGs this season. While Holiday posted modest splits in a previous meeting with Minnesota, that was only his fourth game of the season (played 22 minutes) and he’s taken on a much bigger role as the 1A option in New Orleans with averages of 17.3 PPG and 7.5 APG over the last month. Feel free to use him in any format.
Mike Conley (MEM) vs. GSW DK:$7,300/FD:$7,400
Arguably the most underrated star in the NBA should play a huge role in the Grizzlies home test against the star-studded Warriors tonight after he led Memphis in a dramatic comeback win at Golden State a couple of months ago. Conley posted 27 points and 12 assists over 40 minutes in that OT victory and is one of the few PGs in the league that is disciplined and quick enough to match up with Stephen Curry on both ends of the floor. The Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA, which clearly benefits a floor general in Conley, who is sporting a career-high 34.6% Assist Rate this season and carrying the Grizzlies offense alongside Marc Gasol. With Memphis (+7.5) expected to give the visitors a run tonight, you can target him as an upper-tier option with a great floor and a sneaky-high ceiling.
Both Jameer Nelson ($4400/$4400) and Jamal Murray ($3800/$4000) are worth consideration as value plays with Emmanuel Mudiay (back) ruled out for Denver.
Dennis Schroder ($6600/$6500) is truly a boom or bust player, but he could have a big game against the weak Kings defense. Consider Rajon Rondo ($4900/$5000) and even Jerian Grant ($3600/$3700) as values if Jimmy Butler and/or D-Wade miss more time for Chicago.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. LAL DK:$10,800 as PG/SF/FD:$11,200
He would’ve been a fantastic option to consider regardless in this matchup, but sadly, Jabari Parker’s season-ending injury will force even more upon the plate of The Greek Freak. Antetokounmpo posted his first monster game in a while with 30 points, 12 boards, 6 dimes and 4 blocks in a win against the Suns 27th-ranked defense and he draws a similar matchup tonight against the Lakers 29th-ranked defense this evening. He averaged 21 PPG, 9 RPG and 7.5 APG over 2 meetings with the Lakers last season and has clearly made a big leap in terms of his offensive versatility this year. When Parker is off the floor, Giannis sports a team-high 28.8% Usage Rate and averages an impressive 1.31 FPs per minute, so his upside is even higher in a dream matchup tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (ATL) @ SAC DK:$5,700/FD:$5,600
There are riskier options with more upside in this price range, but I like Hardaway is one of the best cash game options at his position. The sharpshooting guard is averaging 18.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG and 3.7 APG over his last 6 appearances, as he’s taken on a much more consistent role with Kyle Korver no longer in a Hawks uniform. Tonight Timmy will face a Kings team that ranks 25th in opponents FG shooting (.463%) and 26th in 3PT defense this year while coughing up the sixth-most FPPG (41.46) and third-most PPG (25.73) to opposing SGs over the last month. He has a very solid floor tonight as one of the Hawks most reliable scoring options.
Danny Green ($3900/$3900) has met value in 7 consecutive appearances for the Spurs. Darren Collison ($5400/$5200 as PG on FD) is a mid-tier option with much more upside, especially if Ty Lawson (abductor) sits tonight for Sacramento.
Will Barton ($6100/$5800) has been en fuego for the Nuggets lately and should see a big role again with Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari and Mudiay all likely out. Love Lou Williams ($5300/$6200) as a GPP play on DK against a Bucks team that’s hemorrhaging FPs to opposing SGs lately.
Kevin Durant (GSW) @ MEM: DK:$9,400/FD:$10,300
You have to love Durant’s price tag on DK tonight and consider him as a safer play than Steph Curry in the same price range. The most efficient perimeter player in the NBA this year is shooting a career-best 53.7% from the floor as a member of the Warriors and he might be the best Splash Brother to target tonight in a tough test at Memphis. The Grizzlies have figured out how to contain Curry and Klay Thompson in the past, but have had no answers for KD this year, as the Thin Man is averaging 24 PPG and 10 RPG while carrying the Dubs in a couple of close tilts with Memphis. The fact that those games have gone down to the wire is the most appealing factor for a member of a Big 3 that often spends the fourth quarter resting in blowout victories, as Durant might actually have to come up clutch late in this game and exceed value as a result.
Brandon Ingram (LAL) vs. MIL: DK:$4,400/FD:$4,100
A pure value play for lineups tonight, Ingram should continue to see run as the Lakers focus on player development in a lost season. He’s also one of the best options to defend the Bucks lengthy wings due to his rangy frame and he’s facing a Milwaukee team that gives up the second-most FPPG (40.81) and fourth-most PPG (20.85) to opposing SFs this season. Since HC Luke Walton stated that the team will focus on player development, Ingram has averaged 14.7 PPG and 5.3 RPG while shooting an efficient 16-of-31 from the floor and he will remain a solid value option as long as he’s playing steady minutes.
Shabazz Muhammad ($4300/$4200) finally stepped up for the Wolves with Zach LaVine done for the year by scoring 22 points on Wednesday. C.J. Miles ($4100/$4200) is a more volatile lefty to consider in a good matchup at Washington.
Wilson Chandler ($7100/$6700) is pretty pricey now, but faces a Knicks team that ranks dead last in DvP against opposing SFs over the last month and sports a lofty Usage Rate when Danilo Gallinari is inactive. Also consider Michael Beasley ($3900/$4400) as a longshot value with Parker out for the Bucks.
Anthony Davis (NO) @ MIN: DK:$10,100 as C/FD:$10,900
He’s back in the circle of trust for now and hopefully Davis can remain healthy enough to re-enter consideration in all DFS formats. For now, he’s more of a GPP play, but one with tons of upside in a great matchup against Minnesota’s weak defense. The Wolves cough up the fourth-most PPG (22.04) to opposing PFs this season and allowed The Brow to go off for 45 points and 10 boards when they met earlier this year. He seems to gain a bit of extra motivation when facing off with fellow Kentucky phenom Karl-Anthony Towns and he’s been crushing it lately with the exception of limited production in a blowout at Utah, as he’s averaging 28.8 PPG, 13 RPG and 3.2 BPG over his previous 5 appearances.
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) vs. DEN: DK:$6,900/FD:$6,800
We’ve been waiting for a breakout game from Porzingis for a couple of weeks and he finally delivered with 27 points over just 27 minutes in a loss the Clippers on Wednesday. He got into foul trouble once again while trying to guard Blake Griffin but he should receive a break on the defensive end with Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari ruled out for Denver, as emerging stud Guillermo Hernangomez should guard Jokic to start. On the other end, The Zinger draws a great matchup against a Nuggets team that ranks dead last in defensive rating and second-to-last in opponents FG shooting (.477%) this season and he’s still under priced given his upside.
Taj Gibson ($4900/$5000) is the rare safe cash game play on a Bulls roster that is full of uncertainty right now. Jason Smith ($3000/$3700) could emerge as a great punt option if Markieff Morris (calf) sits tonight.
Darrell Arthur ($3500/$4300) could see an expanded role for the Nuggets with Kenneth Faried (ankle) out tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) vs. NO: DK:$10,000/FD:$10,700
In an effort to recommend at least one player who is eligible at center on FanDuel, we’ll discuss a great GPP option and a potential correlation play to the aforementioned Davis and Holiday. The Wolves and Pelicans could get into a shootout at Target Center, where Towns is averaging 25.4 PPG, 13.3 RPG and a beastly 51.9 DK PPG on the season. He’s turned up his production since Zach LaVine went down for the year with a torn ACL and has exceeded value in 7 of his last 8 appearances (10 straight at home). KAT sports a 29.2% Usage Rate and averages 1.29 FPs per minute with LaVine off the floor this season and draws a great matchup against a Pelicans team that coughs up the most RPG (16.37) to opposing centers this season.
Nikola Jokic (DEN) @ NYK: DK:$9,200 as C/FD:$9,900
It was fair to wonder of The Joker’s triple double on his first night back from a groin injury was a bit of a fluke, as he struggled in consecutive games after that while playing limited minutes. Yet he’s clearly not on any restrictions after turning in a big double double (18 points, 15 rebounds) in a loss at Atlanta on Wednesday and he should be all systems go ahead of tonight’s juicy matchup. The Knicks are giving up the most PPG (22.93) to opposing PFs this season and coughing up 110.3 PPG since December 1 while plummeting in defensive rating (ranked 24th now). Jokic is fully capable of exploiting that undisciplined defense with his deft passing and complete offensive game, so look for him to put on a show at MSG tonight.
He’s been much more consistent lately and John Henson ($4100/$3900) should see more opportunities with Parker done for the year. Kyle O’Quinn ($4600/$4200) will remain a boom-bust option if Joakim Noah (hamstring) is out again.
The Warriors might be missing both centers in Zaza Pachulia (shoulder) and JaVale McGee (leg), while the Grizzlies could be without Zach Randolph (foot). If that’s the case, Marc Gasol ($7400/$8400) could be in line for a huge game.