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Scouting The NBA DFS - Sunday, February 12

We've got a 4-game slate of NBA action this Sunday and you can cash in DFS contests with our top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: While he’s not really seeing enough playing time to serve as a great tournament option, Ish Smith can provide so much salary relief that he warrants consideration in any format today. He’s been much more productive than Pistons starting PG Reggie Jackson with averages of 10.8 PPG and 5.5 APG despite playing just 21.2 MPG over his last 6 appearances. And Jackson is averaging just 8.8 PPG on 32.8% FG shooting, as his playing time has dipped to 25.2 MPG during that same span.

Fade: It’s tough to ignore Karl-Anthony Towns considering his recent success and his increase in usage with Zach LaVine (knee) sidelined for Minnesota, but I’d simply prefer to target DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis in a showdown between two more Kentucky Wildcats.

Game to Target

  1. Sacramento Kings (-3.5) hosting New Orleans Pelicans (Over/Under = 211)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Jrue Holiday (NO) @ SAC DK:$8,400/FD:$8,200

He’s been on fire over the last couple of weeks and Holiday stepped up even further with Tyreke Evans, E’Twaun Moore and Terrence Jones all inactive for the Pelicans on Friday. New Orleans offense has become a complete two-man show, so both Holiday and Anthony Davis are borderline must plays in the best game to target this Sunday afternoon. Sacramento ranks 24th in defensive rating and 25th in opponents FG shooting (.464%) while coughing up the eighth-most FPPG (45.17) to opposing PGs over the last month. With averages of 21 PPG, 8 APG and 6.8 RPG over his last 5 appearances, Holiday is fully capable of exceeding value despite a slight increase to his price tag.

Ish Smith (DET) @ TOR DK:$4,000/FD:$4,200

While he’s not really seeing enough playing time to serve as a great tournament option, Smith can provide so much salary relief that he warrants consideration in any format today. He’s been much more productive than Pistons starting PG Reggie Jackson with averages of 10.8 PPG and 5.5 APG despite playing just 21.2 MPG over his last 6 appearances. Jackson, meanwhile, is averaging just 8.8 PPG on 32.8% FG shooting, as his playing time has dipped to 25.2 MPG during that same span. Both PGs have a chance to produce against an exhausted Kyle Lowry and a Raptors team that’s no longer elite defensively, but Smith is clearly more appealing if you need to find a way to fit studs such as Holiday, Davis and DeMarcus Cousins into your lineups.

Potential Value

Darren Collison ($6300/$5400) is a bit pricey on DK, but will be worth a look if Ty Lawson (abductor) is unable to suit up for the Kings again.

Longshot

Brandon Jennings ($4400/$5100) started the second half for D-Rose and logged 39 minutes on Friday, which makes him worth a gamble in GPP formats in a tough matchup against the Spurs.

Shooting Guards

Stud

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. DET DK:$7,800/FD:$8,800

Toronto’s usage monster is back in the fold and logging upwards of 20 FGAs per game, which has seriously limited Kyle Lowry’s upside. Of course, DDR remains a quality option in the right matchup and he’s still very much under priced on DK, where he should be the most expensive SG on the board this afternoon. He’ll face off with a Pistons team that is usually solid on the defensive end, but allowed DeRozan to score 40 points on 17-of-27 FG shooting when these teams faced off earlier this season. DeRozan has the type of game that’s so difficult to defend because he’s an old school mid-range jump shooter and a great defensive coach like Stan Van Gundy might not have any bright ideas about shutting him down this Sunday.

Potential Value

Buddy Hield ($3900/$3600) will only be worth a look if Tyreke Evans and E’Twaun Moore are both still out for the Pelicans. Danny Green ($3700/$3900) is a fine value at SG despite his very limited upside.

Longshot

Ben McLemore ($4000/$4100) has been hot lately for the Kings and he may be worth a look if Lawson can’t suit up again.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kawhi Leonard (SA) @ NYK: DK:$9,000/FD:$9,600

It might be tough to fit Kawhi into lineups that are stacking the Kings-Pelicans game tonight, but he’s probably still the best cash game play on the board in his plus matchup. The Knicks defense has completely fallen apart, as they’re coughing up 112.9 PPG over their last 10 games and rank 25th in defensive rating at this point in the season. With a 30.7% Usage Rate this season that is by far the highest of his career, Leonard has finally emerged as a go-to-guy within the Spurs sophisticated offensive scheme and a true MVP candidate. He battled through a quad injury to produce identical lines of 32 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists over his last 2 appearances and that’s the type of consistency you can expect from Leonard on the road today.

Marcus Morris (DET) @ TOR: DK:$5,100/FD:$5,700

He predictably slowed down in a brutal matchup against Kawhi and the Spurs last Friday, but prior to that Morris was on fire with averages of 22 PPG and 6.4 RPG over his previous 4 appearances. That hot streak began with a 36-point game against Minnesota and today he’ll face a similar Toronto defense tonight, as the Raptors allow an above average 20.64 PPG to opposing SFs over the last month and Morris went for 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists the last time he faced Canada’s sole NBA franchise.

Potential Value

Shabazz Muhammad ($4000/$4000) isn’t the safest option but he is seeing increased opportunity with Zach LaVine (knee) done for the year. DeMarre Carroll ($4200/$4100) has suddenly begun to flash upside for the Raptors and he’s worth a look as another volatile value play.

Longshot

Andrew Wiggins ($7300/$7700) has caught fire over his last couple games but he’s still a bit hard to trust in a tough matchup against Jimmy Butler and the Bulls.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Anthony Davis (NO) @ SAC: DK:$10,800 as C/FD:$11,100

This slate is simple in a sense. If you can find a way to squeeze value plays in at SG and SF, you could simply stack Holiday, Davis and DeMarcus Cousins and hope that the Pelicans and Kings get into a shootout as advertised. Davis is probably the easiest player to fade out of that trio because of his injury history, but he’s been upright lately and is obviously crushing it with averages of 28.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG and 3.6 BPG over his last 5 appearances. He went for 34 points, 8 rebounds and 4 blocks in a meeting with the Kings earlier this season and the only thing that could prevent him from another big game is a potential in-game injury.

Kyle O’Quinn (NYK) vs. SA: DK:$4,500/FD:$4,400 as C

If you need a cheap PF on DraftKings, consider O’Quinn with Joakim Noah (hamstring) ruled out of Sunday’s home tilt against the Spurs. KOQ has defied logic with B2B excellent games and he might just manage to avoid foul trouble against the Spurs and jump-shooting PF LaMarcus Aldridge today. If he can stay out on the floor, O’Quinn has a great chance to exceed value considering he’s sporting per 36-minute averages of 15.4 points, 13.2 rebounds and 3 blocks on the season. Knicks HC Jeff Hornacek seems to prefer the big-bodied center over young Guillermo Hernangomez against more experienced teams, so KOQ could log the lion’s share of minutes up front against the Spurs.

Potential Value

Dante Cunningham ($3300/$3600) would become a solid punt play if Terrence Jones (thumb) can’t suit up tonight.

Longshot

Kristaps Porzingis ($6100/$6400) is cheap and getting cheaper due to the tough matchup against the Spurs tonight, but SA actually gives up an above average 21.77 PPG to opposing PFs over the last month.

Centers

Two Studs

DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) vs. NO: DK:$11,100/FD:$11,000

There’s late night hammers and then there’s Boogie on this short slate. He might completely tip the scales of GPP contests with a monstrous performance in this prime matchup at home, as he enters tonight’s contest with averages of 23.5 PPG, 12.3 RPG and 8.3 APG despite facing some tough defenses over his last 4 appearances. Now he faces a soft Pelicans interior defense that gives up the sixth-most FPPG (51.41) to opposing centers over the last month and the most RPG (16.33) to the position this season. Cousins went for 28 points on 11-of-20 FG shooting when he faced New Orleans earlier this year and he’s become a much bigger facilitator with the Kings roster extremely shorthanded.

Andre Drummond (DET) @ TOR: DK:$7,900/FD:$8,700

Mr. Drummond can be used to sneak under the radar by fading both Cousins and Karl-Anthony Towns in plus matchups for a rebounding monster with potential big-time upside. Drummond can post huge double doubles in the right matchup and he faces a Raptors team tonight that is ranked 19th in total rebounding rate this year and also coughs up the fourth-most PPG (24.47) to opposing centers over the last month. Points are often harder for Big Dre to come by, but this ECF game might turn into a high-scoring affair and the Pistons playmaking guards could find their big man often enough to allow him to flirt with a 20-20 line. Use him in GPP formats as a way to differentiate.

Potential Value

Robin Lopez ($4500/$4900) can serve as a solid cash game play as long as he can stay out of foul trouble against KAT tonight. Lucas Noguiera ($3600/$3900) is a solid value on either main DFS site with Patrick Patterson injured for Toronto.

Longshot

He only saw 9 minutes of run on Friday, but Guillermo Hernangomez ($4300/$5700) is worth a look as a value on DK with Noah out for the Knicks.


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