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Scouting The NBA DFS - Monday, February 13

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Plays of the Day

Value: Ish Smith played 31 minutes while leading the Pistons to a narrow win over Toronto on Sunday and he might have officially passed Reggie Jackson as Detroit’s preferred PG. Tonight he faces a Bucks team that gives up the sixth-most APG (8.94) to opposing PGs this season and he could continue to exceed value thanks to his ability to penetrate and set up teammates.

Fade: Anthony Davis is rolling right now and he hasn’t departed a game due to injury in awhile, but I’d be reluctant to pay up for him on DraftKings with the Pelicans on the second half of a B2B set. Phoenix has been solid against opposing PFs this season and they might be able to hold The Brow in check, whereas other options in his price range could blow up on this full slate.

Games to Target

  1. Washington Wizards (-5) hosting Oklahoma City Thunder (Over/Under = 217)
  2. Denver Nuggets (+11.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 239.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

John Wall (WAS) vs. OKC DK:$10,500/FD:$10,200

Obviously you’d like to target Russell Westbrook as well, but if that doesn’t work for your lineup construction, Wall could serve as a better per dollar option in a showdown between two of the most athletic PGs in league history. The Wizards floor general is rolling with averages of 25.6 PPG, 12.4 APG and 55.4 DK PPG while playing 41 MPG over his last 5 appearances and any recollections of his restrictions to open the season are long gone. Tonight he faces a Thunder squad that gives up the seventh-most FPPG (44.49) to opposing PGs on the season and Wall could serve as another PG to take Westbrook’s dominance as a personal challenge and step up their game. He went for 15 points and 15 dimes to produced 50 DK points despite shooting just 6-of-20 from the field the last time these teams met and he could exceed that production if he gets to the rim more consistently.

Eric Bledsoe (PHO) vs. NO DK:$7,700/FD:$8,400

Perhaps taking a game off to rest will help Bledsoe get back to his productive ways in a great matchup tonight. He’s in position to exceed value by a wide margin at some point at this modest price tag on DK and he could carry the Suns at home in a potential shootout with the Pelicans. New Orleans coughs up the ninth-most FPPG (44.68) and PPG (24.23) to opposing PGs over the last month while EB is averaging 21 PPG, 6 RPG and 5.7 APG over 3 meetings with that poor defensive team. He’ been more consistent at home all season and was on fire with averages of 24.4 PPG and 7.7 APG during January, so give him a chance to snap his brief skid at the start of this month.

Potential Value

Ish Smith ($4000/$4200) played 31 minutes while leading the Pistons to a narrow win over Toronto on Sunday and he might have officially passed Reggie Jackson as Detroit’s preferred PG.

Longshot

Jameer Nelson ($5400/$5000) has put together three great games in a row and he might see a huge workload against the Warriors tonight with Emmanuel Mudiay (back) and Gary Harris (hamstring) questionable for Denver.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. DET DK:$10,100 PG/SF/FD:$11,300

Ironically, you might want to fade Giannis at his lofty price tag on FanDuel, where he’s actually eligible as a SG, but he’s definitely worth a look as an under priced triple-double threat on DK tonight. He came up 2 boards shy of that achievement with 20 points, 10 assists and 8 boards in a 16-point loss at Indy on Saturday and met value despite attempting just 9 shots from the floor. That’s probably not going to be the norm with Jabari Parker (knee) done for the year, as Giannis sports a 29.2% Usage Rate, averages 0.72 points and 1.33 FPs per minute with Parker off the floor this year. Tonight he faces a Pistons squad that’s solid defensively, but is playing their fourth game in six nights and like most NBA teams, they’ve had trouble matching up with The Greek Freak this season.

Marcus Smart (BOS) @ DAL DK:$5,500/FD:$5,900

It should be very useful to note that Smart is now eligible at SG in a perfect spot to consider him in any format on FanDuel. The Celtics do-everything guard is playing heavy minutes out of necessity with Avery Bradley (Achilles) out and he might be asked to do even more if Jae Crowder (personal) and Jaylen Brown (hip) both miss tonight’s game. Regardless, Smart draws a great matchup against a Mavericks team that ranks 26th in opponents FG shooting (.468%) and dead last in defensive rebounding rate this season. He can bully smaller guards such as Seth Curry or Devin Harris and potentially fill up the stat sheet again, as he’s averaging 12 PPG, 4 RPG, 4.4 APG and 2.8 SPG over his last 5 appearances.

Potential Value

Austin Rivers ($5000/$5700 as PG on FD) is under priced as the Clippers secondary scoring option and he’s the type of quick PG that can give the Jazz trouble. Danny Green ($3700/$3900) is still worth a look as a low-upside value play despite shooting 2-of-13 from the field on Sunday.

Longshot

Will Barton ($6400/$5800) is one of the more appealing GPP plays on the slate in a potential track meet with the Warriors tonight, as the Nuggets could be very shorthanded and give him heavy run again.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kawhi Leonard (SA) @ IND: DK:$8,900/FD:$9,600

Kawhi did everything he could to lead the Spurs to a win on Sunday with 36 points on 13-of-27 FG shooting, but his team still fell to the lowly Knicks on the road. He should carry the load in a bounce back effort as his aging team plays at Indiana on the second half of a B2B set, and the young Leonard is averaging 22.1 PPG without missing a beat when playing on 0 days rest this season. He’s been incredibly consistent over the last couple of months with spikes in production like we saw on Sunday, while he could have another big game against a mediocre Pacers defense and a star offensive player in Paul George, whose defensive effort has been questionable to say the least this year.

Marcus Morris (DET) @ MIL: DK:$5,200/FD:$5,700

Morris was solid while meeting value for a third consecutive game on Sunday and he draws a much more favorable matchup at essentially the same price tag tonight. The Bucks are giving up the fifth-most FPPG (40.03) to opposing SFs this season and should only become more vulnerable on the wing with Parker out for the year and Khris Middleton (knee) working his way back into playing shape. Morris continues to log heavy minutes for a Pistons team that leans on its starters and he does have some upside, as evidenced by his 36-point game against Minnesota last week. He’s averaging 11 PPG while shooting just 7-of-26 from the floor over 2 meetings with Milwaukee this year, but something should give in regards to that trend and he could get hot in a matchup between tired teams.

Potential Value

Andre Iguodala ($3900/$4200) is a great value option as per usual with the Warriors drawing a plus matchup in Denver. Both Khris Middleton ($3900/$4400 as SG on FD) and Chandler Parsons ($3500/$3600) can serve as punt plays with decent upside despite their respective minutes restrictions.

Longshot

Love Gordon Hayward ($7700/$8100) as a tournament play with plenty of upside in a potential shootout with the Clippers. Michael Beasley ($47000/$4400) is a cheap SF with upside now that Parker is out of commission for Milwaukee.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. GSW: DK:$9,200 as C/FD:$10,100

It might make sense to pay up for Anthony Davis on FanDuel, but the price gap between these two studs is so dramatic on DraftKings that Jokic clearly appears to be the better option as an under priced center. He’s been dominant lately with 85 points, 37 rebounds and 12 assists over his last 3 appearances despite facing the tough Hawks and Cavs defenses during that span. Now he’ll face a Warriors team that is rated very highly in terms of defensive efficiency, but gives up plenty of production to opposing teams while playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season. The Joker posted solid per-minute numbers over 2 meetings with the Dubs this year, but logged just 21.4 MPG in those contests. With the Nuggets capable of keeping things close at home, Jokic should see minutes in the 35-40 range tonight, especially with Kenneth Faried (ankle), Danilo Gallinari (groin) and Jusuf Nurkic (traded) out, while Darrell Arthur (knee) is also questionable.

Blake Griffin (LAC) @ UTA: DK:$9,000/FD:$9,700 as C

This is clearly not a night to save to at PF with so many appealing options, and Blake is one of the best per-dollar plays to consider. He is the clear-cut leader of the Clippers offense with Chris Paul on the shelf. He’s sporting a 29.7% Usage Rate and averaging 1.38 FPs per minute with CP3 off the floor this season and has been crushing it since returning from injury with averages of 26.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 5.8 APG over his last 6 appearances. The Jazz are a tough defensive team, but strongest against the center position and on the wing, while chronically-hobbled PF Derrick Favors and inexperienced backup Trey Lyles represent the weak points in that front. Griffin is almost matchup-proof when he’s playing like this and he’s not exactly pricey on DK as a legitimate threat to post a triple double.

Potential Value

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5500/$5500) has been a great cash game play recently and he should be even safer with Mason Plumlee (traded) unavailable for Portland tonight. Dario Saric ($5200/$5100) and Nerlens Noel ($5300/$5400) are also great mid-tier tournament plays with Embiid and Jahlil Okafor out for Philly.

Longshot

Frank Kaminsky ($5700/$4800) is coming off another big game and he should see heavy minutes at the 5 in a great matchup against the shorthanded Sixers with Cody Zeller (quad) doubtful for Charlotte.

Centers

Two Studs

Andre Drummond (DET) @ MIL: DK:$7,900/FD:$8,700

The Bucks are extremely vulnerable down low and that’s why they made a trade for centers Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert, even if those weak defenders have yet to make an impact. Drummond has abused Milwaukee’s front line with averages of 18 PPG and 16 RPG over 2 meetings this year and he averaged 15.3 PPG and 17.8 RPG over 4 meetings with the Bucks last season. Drummond posted his fourth consecutive big double double last night and he’s played just as many MPG (31.9) while posting similar averages of 14.1 PPG and 13.7 RPG on 0 days rest this year, so give him a look as the Pistons man in the middle.

Greg Monroe (MIL) vs. DET: DK:$4,900/FD:$5,800

While Drummond represents a huge problem for the Bucks defense, he’s a poor defender in his own right and that’s why Detroit coughs up an above average 21.16 PPG to opposing centers this season. Monroe’s averaging 12.5 PPG, 5 RPG and 3 APG despite playing just 22 MPG over 2 meetings with the Pistons this year and he remains a GPP-only play because of Jason Kidd’s wacky rotations. Yet “Moose” is coming off a big game against the Pacers while John Henson never even got off the bench, so he should get first crack at guarding Drummond and he’s very much capable of burning his former teammate on the other end of the floor.

Potential Value

Alex Len ($4500/$4000 as PF on FD) can serve as a solid value play once again if Tyson Chandler (ankle) remains out for the Suns. Kelly Olynyk ($4000/$4400) is establishing a great floor-ceiling combo as one of the Celtics most integral players.

Longshot

I would certainly consider Nikola Vucevic ($7100/$7100) in tournament formats against a Heat team that he’s burned this season, especially if Aaron Gordon (foot) remains out.


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