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Plays of the Day
Value: Maurice Harkless should start and continue to play heavy minutes for Portland with Evan Turner (hand) out indefinitely and he could see an added boost if Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) is unable to go tonight. Harkless is coming off a great game with 17 points and a full line against the Hawks, while he’s averaging 0.43 points and 0.79 FPs per minute with Turner and Aminu off the court this season.
Fade: DeMarcus Cousins proved us wrong by going off in an OT win against the Warriors last week, but tonight’s tilt at Oracle Arena should be a different story. Golden State (-17) is a massive favorite in a bounce back spot and Big Cuz should rest in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss.
Games to Target
- Denver Nuggets (-6) hosting Minnesota Wolves (Over/Under = 226.5)
- Cleveland Cavs (-5.5) hosting Indiana Pacers (Over/Under = 219)
Stephen Curry (GSW) vs. SAC DK:$9,600/FD:$9,200
The Warriors came out flat against the Kings last week and just dropped a stunner to the Nuggets after an emotional game in OKC. Yet this is a team that hasn’t lost B2B games in years and a player in Curry that you should never bet against after a bad game. Steph went 1-for-11 from three in Denver and the last time he struggled that badly from deep (He went 0-for-10 against the Lakers on Nov. 4), he proceeded to set an NBA record with 13 triples in a home game against the Pelicans three nights later. He’s a showman who loves to thrill the raucous crowd at Oracle Arena and will almost certainly play a huge role in a blowout win tonight against a Kings team that ranks 26th in opponents 3PT shooting (.373%) this season.
Jeff Teague (IND) @ CLE DK:$7,400/FD:$7,200
The Pacers will face a shorthanded Cavs team that’s on the second half of a B2B set and has really struggled to contain opposing guards over the past couple of months. Cleveland allows the most FPPG (49.1) to opposing PGs over the last month and recently allowed Teague to go for 22 points, 14 assists and 5 rebounds in a shootout win at Indiana. The Cavs (-6) are home tonight, but playing their fifth game since facing the Pacers last Wednesday and might need to think about getting LeBron James some rest heading into the ASB. Kyrie Irving will be asked to do more offensively with Kevin Love (back) out indefinitely, and he’s a poor defender who will only become more of a liability if he expends his energy on the other end of the floor.
Jameer Nelson ($6000/$5300) is pricey on DK but remains a strong mid-tier option with Emmanuel Mudiay (back) questionable. Jamal Murray ($3900/$3900) is also worth a look as more of a risk/reward play for Denver.
Dennis Schroder ($6600/$6500) is playing very well right now and is worth a look against a Clippers team that’s missing lockdown defender Chris Paul.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) @ BKN DK:$10,800 as PG/SF/FD:$10.800
This is a perfect bounce back spot for The Greek Freak after he struggled mightily in a win over the Pistons on Monday. Detroit is a disciplined defensive team, while the Nets are anything but, as they cough up the most PPG (113.9) while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA this season. That type of up-and-down game plays to the strengths of Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 20 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 5.7 APG and 5.7 STL/BLK per game over 3 meetings with Brooklyn this season. The Nets cough up the most overall FPPG (218.46) over the last month and Giannis can burn them from all areas of the floor.
Lou Williams (LAL) @ PHO DK:$5,800/FD:$6,100
We recommended Williams yesterday as a high-volume scorer that is capable of exceeding value despite limited playing time and he did just that with 29 points and 45.25 DK points (42.7 FD points) over just 24 minutes of run against Sacramento. He should be in a similar area of playing time in an even better matchup tonight against the Suns 29th-ranked defense and he’s already torched Phoenix for 49 points on 15-of-31 FG shooting over 2 meetings this year. The Kings inexperienced backcourt couldn’t handle the crafty Williams last night, while he faces a similar mouth-watering matchup tonight against young Devin Booker or weak defender Brandon Knight.
Danny Green ($3700/$3900) is definitely under priced for a player that is logging 35-plus minutes on a great offensive team.
Nick Young ($4600/$4600) is worth a look in tournament formats as a kind of cheaper version of Williams tonight. Consider Nik Stauskas ($3900/$4100) as a value with upside for the shorthanded Sixers.
LeBron James (CLE) vs. IND: DK:$10,500/FD:$11,300
There will be no rest for the weary, as LeBron is likely going to play heavy minutes once again in a tough matchup at home. With Kevin Love (back) out over the next six weeks, James will continue to put the Cavs on his back as the primary facilitator on offense and one of the best defensive rebounders for the defending champs. Tonight his team hosts a Pacers squad that put up 117 points against Cleveland in a losing effort last week, so it’s not as if he’ll be able to coast to an easy win after leading his squad in Minnesota last night. He’s owned Paul George in the past and PG13 isn’t playing great defense this year by any means.
Maurice Harkless (POR) @ UTA: DK:$4,700/FD:$4,600
It’s a tough matchup for everyone in a Blazers uniform, but added opportunity makes the healthy players on that roster worth a long look. Harkless should start and continue to play heavy minutes with Evan Turner (hand) out indefinitely and he could see an added boost if Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) is unable to go tonight. Harkless is coming off a great game with 17 points and a full line against the Hawks, while he’s averaging 0.43 points and 0.79 FPs per minute with Turner and Aminu off the court this season. In addition, Mason Plumlee is no longer on Portland’s roster while new center Jusuf Nurkic is unlikely to play heavy minutes in his first game, so Harkless could see added time as a stretch 4 and added responsibilities on the boards.
Andre Iguodala ($4300/$4400) should have his fingerprints on a blowout win for the Warriors tonight.
Aaron Gordon ($4600/$4500) is worth a look in a tough matchup against the Spurs now that Serge Ibaka is no longer in a Magic uniform. Michael Beasley ($5500/$4900) has been huge for Milwaukee with Jabari Parker done for the year.
Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. MIN: DK:$10,300 as C/FD:$11,000
The fact that Jokic could serve as the highest-scoring player on a full slate shows how far the second-year man has come, as well as the state of the Nuggets roster heading into the ASB. Denver will be without forwards Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur, while Wilson Chandler and Emmanuel Mudiay are highly questionable ahead of a plus matchup against Minnesota’s 24th-ranked defense. The Joker has been on fire with averages of 25.5 PPG, 14.5 RPG and 7.25 APG including two triple doubles over his last 4 appearances, and he should continue to run the Nuggets offense at home.
Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. ATL: DK:$9,500/FD:$9,800
There’s simply no reason to fade Blake over the Clippers next few games, as Chris Paul is expected to remain out through the ASB. The “Point Power Forward” posted another versatile line with 26 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists and 53.5 DK points (51 FD points) in just about the toughest matchup possible at Utah, so he’s certainly worth using at home against the Hawks tonight. Atlanta is giving up an above average 41.64 FPPG to opposing PFs this season and only the lowly Nets are giving up more FPPG overall than the Hawks (216.44) over the last month. Griffin will be at the center of everything the Clips do until CP3 returns and that makes him a veritable bargain at less than $10K on both main DFS sites.
Dario Saric ($5800/$5300) is thriving with the 76ers shorthanded while Nerlens Noel ($6100/$5600) is putting up solid numbers with Joel Embiid (knee) out and Jahlil Okafor in the doghouse.
Channing Frye ($5000/$5000) is a little tough to trust at this price tag on the second half of a B2B set, but he should get plenty of opportunities with Kevin Love out indefinitely.
Marc Gasol (MEM) vs. NO: DK:$7,500/FD:$8,400
Gasol is the primary reason to be wary of using Anthony Davis tonight and a great play in his own right against a Pelicans team that struggles with interior defense. New Orleans allows the eighth-most PPG (106.8) in the NBA and the most RPG (16.4) to opposing centers this year, while Gasol has torched his divisional rivals with averages of 18 PPG, 11 RPG, 8 APG and 5 STL/BLK per game over 2 meetings this season. The Pelicans rank 29th in total rebounding rate, so Gasol could certainly earn a double double with the possibility to flirt with a triple double if this game remains close down the stretch.
Greg Monroe (MIL) @ BKN: DK:$5,400/FD:$6,500
It’s certainly dangerous to trust Bucks HC Jason Kidd, but it seems highly unlikely that he would lower Monroe’s minutes after his big man went for 25 points and 13 rebounds while shooting 12-of-15 from the floor in a win over Detroit on Monday. Moose definitely seemed to find a little extra motivation against his former team and he should be able to ride that momentum into a matchup against a Nets squad that is arguably the worst defensive team in the league. Brooklyn allows the second-most FPPG (51.28) to opposing centers this season and Monroe is averaging 1.23 FPs per minute over 3 meetings with the Nets, so perhaps he’ll exceed value by a wide margin again if Kidd simply lets him spin.
Kelly Olynyk ($4300/$4600) continues to thrive off the bench for the Celtics and he matches up well against the shorthanded Sixers frontcourt. Donatas Motiejunas ($3000/$3500 as PF on FD) and Alexis Ajinca ($3000/$3500) should split frontcourt minutes for New Orleans with Terrence Jones (thumb) and Dante Cunningham (personal) out.
Jusuf Nurkic ($3900/$3500) is a total wildcard as he prepares to make his Blazers debut tonight. Ed Davis ($3800/$3800 as PF on FD) is a slightly safer or contrarian option if you believe Portland will give him more minutes at the 5.