Scouting The NBA DFS - Thursday, February 16

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Plays of the Day

Value: Kelly Olynyk has been awesome with averages of 13.1 PPG and 7 RPG while shooting 58.7% from the floor over his last 7 appearances and he’s logged at least 23 minutes in 4 consecutive outings. The Bulls are allowing an above average 22.18 PPG and 47.9 FPPG to opposing centers over the last month and it’s hard to picture slow-footed Robin Lopez closing out on Olynyk when Boston HC Brad Stevens looks to create that mismatch later in this contest.

Fade: Paul George has posted great numbers against the Wizards this year, but it’s not as if they don’t have the right personnel to stop him with rangy defender Otto Porter Jr capable of stepping up. He’s been inconsistent this season and flashed very limited upside, so there are probably better options to pay up for this evening.

Game Lines

  1. Indiana Pacers (-2.5) hosting Washington Wizards (Over/Under = 216.5)
  2. Chicago Bulls (PK) hosting Boston Celtics (Over/Under = 212)

Point Guards

Two Studs

John Wall (WAS) @ IND DK:$10,700/FD:$10,400

You may be inclined to Isaiah Thomas at just $9.3K on DraftKings tonight, but Wall is probably the superior option at just $400 more on FanDuel. The Wizards MVP is in the midst of the best season of his career and he’s posted 8 consecutive double doubles while averaging 23.8 PPG and 12.7 APG this month. Tonight he’ll face a Pacers team that is average defensively and improving offensively, increasing the potential for a shootout between two ECF playoff teams. Wall went for 26 points and 14 dimes in a 112-107 win over the Pacers last Friday and he’s averaging 27 PPG, 11 APG and 6 RPG over 3 meetings with Jeff Teague and Indy so far this season, so he’s the clear-cut top option at PG where he’s priced next to Thomas.

Jeff Teague (IND) vs. WAS DK:$7,400/FD:$7,200

Since this position is bereft of value on a 2-game slate, Teague can serve as a source of slight salary relief at his mid-tier price tag. He’s coming off another double double against the Cavs and came just one assist shy of that bonus with 13 points and 9 assists in a loss at Washington last week. Now he’ll face Wall and company at home, where he’s averaging 15.7 PPG, 8.3 APG and 37.3 DK PPG on the season and he’s been very good against the Wizards this year, as Washington gives up an above average 22.18 PPG to his position on the season.

Potential Value

Rajon Rondo ($4200/$4700) can serve as a risky value at PG while teammate Michael Carter-Williams ($5100/$4900 as SG on FD) will be worth a look if D-Wade (wrist) sits out the final game before the ASB.

Longshot

He’s not a longshot, but Isaiah Thomas ($9300/$10,000) could have a lower ownership rate than Wall despite his incredible scoring prowess.

Shooting Guards

Stud

Marcus Smart (BOS) @ CHI DK:$5,700/FD:$5,800

He only saw a slight bump in playing time with rookie Jaylen Brown (hip) unavailable, as Smart has been rolling with Avery Bradley (Achilles) out over the last month, but The Cobra balled out last night against the Sixers because he simply has Juice. Smart is going to be at the center of tonight’s result in a borderline rivalry match between the Bulls and Celtics and it’s worth considering betting Boston on the Moneyline, as the C’s are sporting an impressive 9-3 record while averaging 111.8 PPG on the second half of B2B sets this season. Smart posted a huge line with 21 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and a whopping 8 steals last night and he could benefit if Wade is absent from the Bulls lineup this evening.

Potential Value

Monta Ellis ($3700/$4200) is getting steady run for the Pacers and he’s actually a very solid cash game play at this price tag on DK in a plus matchup against Washington.

Longshot

There’s no particularly strong reason to use Bradley Beal ($7100/$7600) tonight unless you’re stacking the Wizards-Pacers game or fading Wall in the hopes that Beal carries the load.

Small Forwards

Stud

Jimmy Butler (CHI) vs. BOS: DK:$9,100/FD:$9,700

Butler is only marginally more expensive than Paul George on both main DFS sites but is a vastly superior option in my opinion. While PG13 has burned the Wizards to the tune of 30.7 PPG over 3 meetings this season, I would expect an improving Washington defense to make the right adjustments and slow him down, while Butler should carry the Bulls offense through sheer volume alone. It’s tough to expect Dwyane Wade (wrist) to suit up on the night before the ASB and when Wade is off the floor, Jimmy Buckets boasts a 34.9% Usage Rate while averaging 0.84 points and 1.36 FPs per minute this season. He struggled from the floor a bit in his return to action on Tuesday but still got to the line 19 times and handed out 12 dimes- the type of versatile production that gives Butler one of the highest floors on this short slate.

Potential Value

Jae Crowder ($5600/$6100) is a good cash game play to consider in a matchup against a fellow Marquette product in Butler.

Longshot

If Wade is ruled out, Doug McDermott ($4400/$4400) would likely get ample opportunities off the bench for the Bulls.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Markieff Morris (WAS) @ IND: DK:$6,900/FD:$7,400

It’s real ugly at this position tonight and Morris is just about the only option that you could get excited about in terms of upside. He slowed a little bit after a torrid stretch during January, but has caught fire once again with 49 points and 16 rebounds over his last 2 appearances and extremely efficient 51.7% FG shooting over his last 4 starts. Tonight he’ll face a Pacers team that’s down starting PF Thaddeus Young (wrist) and likely will be without backup PF Lavoy Allen (knee), leaving stuck-in-the-mud PF/C Kevin Seraphin to try and match up with a skilled shooter and dribbler in Morris.

Taj Gibson (CHI) vs. BOS: DK:$4,700/FD:$4,600

When you put Gibson in the same sentence as “heated rivalry match” you have to get a little excited about his prospects to exceed value. The sole source of toughness in the Bulls frontcourt these days is going through a bit of an underwhelming stretch, but he’s averaging 13 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 31.1 DK PPG over 2 meetings with the Celtics this season. Boston allows the ninth-most RPG (12.36) and 11th most FPPG (43.63) to opposing PFs this season while ranking 28th in total rebounding, so it’s a good matchup for Taj, who happens to sport a Usage Rate of 21.4% while averaging 0.91 FPs per minute when D-Wade is off the floor this season.

Potential Value

Amir Johnson ($3300/$3700) could be used as a punt play tonight, although he comes with plenty of risk as an inconsistent member of the Celtics rotation who is losing playing time to Kelly Olynyk.

Centers

Two Studs

Marcin Gortat (WAS) @ IND: DK:$6,000/FD:$7,300

Usually just a safe cash game play to consider in the mid-tier range, Gortat has a decent chance to emerge as the highest scoring center on this short slate. He’s been rolling right along with averages of 14.8 PPG and 12.3 RPG while shooting 58% from the field over his last 6 appearances and draws a great matchup tonight against a Pacers team that gives up the sixth-most RPG (15.16) to opposing centers this year. Indiana’s starting 5 Myles Turner is simply under sized compared to Gortat, who has posted averages of 16 PPG and 15 RPG over 3 meetings with the Pacers and should dominate the paint again tonight.

Kelly Olynyk (BOS) @ CHI: DK:$4,500/FD:$4,600

Olynyk is also a very appealing value play at PF on DK, but he’s probably the best option at center in GPP formats on FanDuel tonight. With the Celtics still a bit shorthanded, HC Brad Stevens can be trusted to stick with Kelly-O for at least one more game as one of the secondary scoring options around I.T. Olynyk has been awesome with averages of 13.1 PPG and 7 RPG while shooting 58.7% from the floor over his last 7 appearances and he’s logged at least 23 minutes in 4 consecutive outings. The Bulls are allowing an above average 22.18 PPG and 47.9 FPPG to opposing centers over the last month and it’s hard to picture slow-footed Robin Lopez closing out on Olynyk when Stevens looks to create that mismatch later in this contest.

Potential Value

Robin Lopez ($4400/$4700) is an uninspiring value with limited upside, so why not consider his backup Cristiano Felicio ($3600/$3600) in a great matchup against the Celtics?


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