Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Scouting The NBA DFS - Monday, February 27

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Plays of the Day

Value: We should see Buddy Hield log more than the 26 minutes he received over his first 2 appearances for the Kings and he played well with a combined 31 points on 11-of-20 FG shooting during those games. Now he’ll be free to fire against a Minnesota team that ranks 27th in opponents FG shooting (.471%) this season and he could exceed the value of his price tag.

Fade: Jahlil Okafor, Dario Saric and Robert Covington are all on nice runs for the streaking Sixers, but I wouldn’t trust any of them in a brutal matchup against the Warriors tonight. Saric and Covington will have to square off with elite defenders in Draymond Green and Kevin Durant while the Dubs quick defensive rotations will make it difficult for Okafor to win in post-up situations.

Game Lines

  1. Sacramento Kings (+5) hosting Minnesota Wolves (Over/Under = 212)
  2. Boston Celtics (-4.5) hosting Atlanta Hawks (Over/Under = 212)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Kyrie Irving (CLE) vs. MIL DK:$9,000/FD:$9,100

LeBron James could return to action tonight after sitting out Saturday’s game due to illness, but the fact that he was willing to miss one of the first games out of the ASB indicates that the superstar is taking it easy to an extent in order to prep for the playoffs. Irving took over as the Cavs top scoring option with LBJ out on Saturday, dropping 34 points with 9 rebounds and 7 assists, and he’s now sporting a crazy 46.5% Usage Rate and averaging 1.07 points per minute with both James and Kevin Love off the floor this season. Tonight Irving will face off with an inconsistent Bucks defense that coughs up the fifth-most APG (9.16) to opposing PGs and has allowed Kyrie to average 26.3 PPG and 7 APG over 3 meetings this season.

Isaiah Thomas (BOS) vs. ATL DK:$8,700/FD:$9,300

It’s very tough to fade Thomas at home in a plus matchup, especially when he’s priced this low on DK. He could wind up as the top overall PG option tonight if James returns for the Cavs and he remains an extremely reliable option with 20-plus points in a franchise record 43 consecutive games. Tonight I.T. will face a Hawks team that coughs up the ninth-most FPPG (44.23) and an above average 22.44 PPG to opposing PGs this season and he’ll probably light the TD Garden on fire in the fourth quarter as he so often does with splits of 31.3 PPG on 49% FG shooting at home this season. He dropped 28 points with 9 assists the last time he faced inexperienced PG Dennis Schroder and Atlanta, so this is certainly a prime spot for the King in the Fourth.

Potential Value

Cory Joseph ($5200/$4400) would remain an extremely solid value on FD if Kyle Lowry (wrist) is out again. Love Ty Lawson ($4000/$4800) on DK in a good matchup for the Kings guards.

Longshot

Jeff Teague ($6900/$7300) is always a sneaky GPP play to consider on a full slate and he should be very busy in a fast-paced matchup at Houston.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) @ NYK DK:$8,900/FD:$8,500

It simply doesn’t make much sense to fade DeRozan at around the same price tag since he continued to fill it up with another 33 points in a win over Portland last night. The matchups keep getting better for DDR while Kyle Lowry (wrist) likely remains out for a few more games, as tonight he’ll face the lowly Knicks defense. New York coughs up the seventh-most FPPG (38.77) to opposing SGs on the season and has plummeted down to the point that they rank 25th in defensive rating. With Lowry off the floor, DeRozan sports a 43.7% Usage Rate and averages 1.36 FPs, so he’s a borderline must play whenever his all-star teammate sits.

Buddy Hield (SAC) vs. MIN DK:$4,600/FD:$4,500

There are several appealing value plays in a Kings uniform with DeMarcus Cousins gone and the 24th-ranked Wolves defense coming to town, but Hield might be my favorite play at his modest price tag. Sacramento’s ownership is obviously quite high on the rookie considering they gave up Boogie to get him and compared him to a young Steph Curry, so we should see Hield log more than the 26 minutes he received over his first 2 appearances for the Kings. He played well with a combined 31 points on 11-of-20 FG shooting during those games and now he’ll be free to fire against a Minnesota team that ranks 27th in opponents FG shooting (.471%) this season.

Potential Value

Seth Curry ($5700/$6000) should continue to serve as a solid mid-tier option as the Mavs primary scoring threat in the backcourt, while Lou Williams ($5400/$6300) remains a bargain on DK.

Longshot

Avery Bradley ($5400/$5500) might FINALLY return to action for the Celtics tonight, but if he doesn’t Marcus Smart ($5600/$6100) and Jaylen Brown ($3900/$3900) will each be worth consideration.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kevin Durant (GSW) @ PHI DK:$10,000/FD:$10,300

There’s a lot of uncertainty at this position since LeBron James ($10,900/$11,000) would be a great play if he suits up against the Bucks while Giannis Anteotkounmpo and Michael Beasley would both see a nice boost in upside if The King is inactive. For now, Durant seems like the top option in a plus matchup against the streaking Sixers. Philadelphia (+13.5) might check in as a huge underdog, but the Warriors aren’t quite the same type of unstoppable force on the road this season and KD is playing 34 MPG while putting up similar splits away from Oracle. His hand injury was more of an excuse to rest in an easy blowout over the lowly Nets on Saturday and he should be good to go ahead of a more competitive tilt.

Andrew Wiggins (MIN) @ SAC DK:$8,200/FD:$8,600

The Wolves and Kings meet in a great game to target and Minnesota’s offense is clearly running through two players in Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. With Zach LaVine (knee) out for the season, Wiggy has turned it up with averages of 29 PPG on 51.9% FG shooting over 11 games this month and he’s now sporting a 35.4% Usage Rate and averaging 0.79 points per minute with LaVine off the floor this season. He’s moved over to the 2 more often and that makes his matchup even better tonight against a Kings team that gives up the most PPG (26.08) and fifth-most FPPG (43.26) to opposing SGs this season.

Potential Value

Andre Iguodala ($4600/$4500) has finally seen a rise in his price tag on DK but he’s still a consistent value option.

Longshot

I like C.J. Miles ($3800/$4100) as a longshot value in a potential shootout at Houston while Carmelo Anthony ($8500/$8200) is also looking at a potential big night if Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) remains out for the Knicks.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Paul Millsap (ATL) @ BOS: DK:$7,200/FD:$7,400

The past few games have been a disaster for the Hawks and Millsap certainly hasn’t been exempt with putrid averages during that span. Yet he’s too talented to struggle for an extended period and should bounce back in a good matchup against the Celtics tonight. Boston gives up an above average 21.1 PPG and 12.21 RPG to opposing PFs this season and is ranked 27th in total rebounding. Millsap went for 23 points, 5 boards and 6 dimes the last time he faced the C’s and averaged 22.5 PPG and 10.3 RPG over the larger sample size of 4 meetings against Boston last year. He’s too quick for starting PF Amir Johnson and too physical for reserves Jonas Jerebko or Kelly Olynyk, so the Hawks should feed their star early and often in what should be a high-scoring tilt on the road.

Nerlens Noel (DAL) vs. MIA: DK:$5,300 as C/FD:$5,900

He’s been freed from the purgatory of Philadelphia and is playing for a team that desperately needs his help down low, which secures Noel’s playing time. His price tag should rise in corresponding fashion going forward, but he remains relatively cheap after he logged 30 minutes in his Mavs debut despite racking up 5 fouls against the Pelicans star-studded frontcourt. He’ll have to be on his game tonight against Hassan Whiteside and the Heat. If Noel can avoid foul trouble again, he’s a great bet for a double double and is an easy candidate to exceed value on DraftKings.

Potential Value

Ersan Ilyasova ($4200/$4800) should continue to see more run as he becomes more comfortable with the Hawks and he’s a great bargain on DK.

Longshot

Serge Ibaka ($6200/$5900) is fitting in very well with his new team and could benefit as the Raptors secondary scoring option if Lowry remains out tonight.

Centers

Two Studs

Karl-Anthony Towns (SAC) vs. MIN: DK:$10,800/FD:$10,600

The departure of DeMarcus Cousins had a galvanizing effect on the Kings roster for one game, but in their next outing, the Kings fell flat and struggled to defend the paint. Willie Cauley-Stein will certainly have his hands full tonight with KAT, who has been wreaking havoc on the league over the past several months with averages of 26.8 PPG, 13 RPG and 3 APG since the calendar turned to 2017. He’s posted modest splits over two meetings with the Kings when Cousins was on the floor, but should make mince meat of his fellow ex-Wildcat in WCS this evening.

Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC) vs. MIN: DK:$5,100/FD:$5,200 as PF

While Cauley-Stein is bound to give up a lot of production to Towns tonight, he’s a great mid-tier option in his own right. The new centerpiece of the Kings frontcourt rotation dropped a dud after his career-high 28-point outing in the first game sans Cousins, but he should bounce back against a Wolves team that ranks 27th in FG defense and tends to get into high scoring games. Minnesota actually gives up the second-most PPG (23) to opposing centers this season and WCS should continue to see heavy usage as the only real post presence for Sacramento.

Potential Value

Clint Capela ($5400/$5200) seems like a very safe play against the Pacers and undersized center Myles Turner.

Longshot

Kyle O’Quinn ($5200/$4500) could be worth a look if Porzingis remains out and Guillermo Hernangomez ($6800/$5900) is a safer play in a decent matchup for the Knicks’ bigs.


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