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Scouting The NBA DFS - Tuesday, February 28

We've got a 6-game slate of NBA action tonight and the Daily DFS Breakdown will help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: The departure of Taj Gibson has opened up some minutes for Nikola Mirotic. He averaged 18.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes as a rookie and over 2 appearances since the trade deadline, Mirotic has logged 56 minutes and scored 34 points with 18 rebounds to exceed value in B2B games, so he’s definitely worth a look at a modest price tag in a matchup against the Nuggets 30th-ranked defense.

Fade: Russell Westbrook is on an incredible roll right now but he meets his equal in Utah’s top-ranked defense. The Jazz know how to slow down the opposition’s best player and they’ve down a relatively good job on Westy over 2 meetings this season, which makes it a bit risky to pay $12K for the MVP candidate.

Game Lines

  1. Washington Wizards (+6) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 230.5)
  2. Chicago Bulls (-3) hosting Atlanta Hawks (Over/Under = 222)

Point Guards

Two Studs

John Wall (WAS) vs. GSW DK:$10,300/FD:$10,000

As long as the games remain close with Golden State, point guards on the opposing team have a great chance to put up big numbers. Wall averaged 24.5 PPG and 10.5 APG over 2 meetings with the Dubs last year and went for 41 point on 17-of-25 FG shooting in a home game against GSW last February. With the Wizards (+6.5) checking in as slight underdogs at home tonight, Wall should have every opportunity to carry his offense for four quarters against one the second-fastest paced and top-scoring offensive team in the league. Golden State gives up an above average 22.98 PPG and 8.19 APG to opposing PGs this season, so Wall’s matchup is better than you might think.

Mike Conley (MEM) vs. PHO DK:$7,900/FD:$8,000

Conley seems to love facing the young Suns like most other floor generals in the league because after all, Phoenix gives up the second-most PPG (112.8) overall and the second-most PPG (24.44) to opposing PGs this season. Conley has been a problem in particular for that weak defense, as he’s averaging 30.5 PPG while shooting a scorching 67.9% from the floor over 2 meetings with the Suns this year and dropped a career-high 38 with 7 threes the last time he faced them. It’s dangerous to get caught up in point-chasing based on earlier results, but the matchup is prime and Conley is playing better and better as he works his way back from a serious injury.

Potential Value

Jameer Nelson ($5400/$5600) continues to see the bulk of PG minutes for Denver even with Emmanuel Mudiay back and he’s a great option at the Bulls tonight.

Longshot

Ish Smith ($4500/$4400) has a chance to take over and run the Pistons offense in a great matchup against Portland, while Rajon Rondo ($5400/$5500) draws a dream matchup against the Nuggets and should see more run with Michael Carter-Williams (knee) questionable. .

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Nicolas Batum (CHA) @ LAL DK:$7,500/FD:$7,500

If it’s somehow possible for the Lakers defense to become even worse, that’s happening right now, as the young team ranks 29th in defensive rating and opponents FG shooting (48%) this season. The Lakers cough up the fourth-most PPG (110.9) as well and the fact that they give up so many easy buckets bodes well for an assist artist in Batum. He went for 23 points and 10 dimes while shooting 8-of-12 from the field in a previous meeting with the Lakers this season and should do just fine against a team that gives up the third most PPG (23.3) and seventh-most APG (4.61) to opposing SGs this year.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET) vs. POR DK:$5,900/FD:$5,400

The Pistons always ride their starters hard and KCP could feasibly play around 40 minutes tonight because of the opponent. Portland obviously relies on the backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, while Caldwell-Pope is the best option to contain one of those guards with his defensive ability. He’s taking off on offense with 51 points on 39 FGA over 2 games since the ASB and it’s not a coincidence that Reggie Jackson has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff recently. Tonight KCP will face a Blazers team that is giving up the third-most FPPG (43.74) and second-most PPG (25.89) to opposing SGs over the last month and he’s a bit under priced on both main DFS sites.

Potential Value

Rodney Hood ($4100/$4100) is under priced as a main part of Utah’s offense and Alex Abrines ($3900/$3600) might be worth a look if Victor Oladipo (back) misses another game.

Longshot

Bradley Beal ($7200/$7000) will have to go nuts for the Wizards to have any chance against the Warriors tonight.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kevin Durant (GSW) @ WAS DK:$9,700/FD:$10,300

Durant he comes home tonight to Washington and he will have some extra motivation while playing in front of friends and family for the first time this season. The Wizards strength is in their backcourt, but they’re vulnerable on the wing and give up an above average 37.38 FPPG to opposing SFs on the year. If John Wall and Bradley Beal step up to contain the Splash Brothers, it will fall on Durant to carry the Warriors elite offense on the road in what should be a great game to target.

Maurice Harkless (POR) @ DET DK:$4,700/FD:$4,800

He’s still not the most exciting play, but Harkless found a way to exceed value even with Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) back in the Blazers lineup on Sunday. He scored 18 points while playing 36 minutes in a tough loss at Toronto and should keep rolling tonight against a Pistons team that gives up an above average 21.64 PPG to opposing SFs over the last month. With Evan Turner (hand) out indefinitely, the path is clear for Mo to log plenty of run and he hustles all over the court to guarantee that he’ll pile up peripheral stats.

Potential Value

Why fade Andre Iguodala ($4400/$4500) in cash games when he’s this cheap ahead of another good matchup at Washington?

Longshot

T.J. Warren ($5500/$5300) continues to produce with P.J. Tucker gone and he’s worth a look even in a tough matchup at Memphis.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Draymond Green (GSW) @ WAS: DK:$7,400/FD:$7,200

Apparently benching Green for part of Saturday’s win over the Nets was a pretty brilliant move by HC Steve Kerr, because the Warriors fiery enforcer came back with 14 points, 11 assists and 5 steals to lead his team with 48 DK points in a win at Philly last night. Now he’ll face a Wizards team that gives up the most FPPG (50.85) to opposing PFs over the last month and he should eat Markieff Morris for lunch while potentially playing heavy minutes in a close game. Green does so much for the Dubs on both ends of the floor that all he needs is a full slate of run to match his per 36-minute averages of 11.1 points, 9 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 3.9 STL/BLK on the season.

Nikola Mirotic (CHI) vs. DEN: DK:$5,000/FD:$4,400

The departure of Taj Gibson has opened up some minutes for second-year man Bobby Portis, but also seems to have led to the resurrection of Mirotic. Keep in mind that this is a player who averaged 18.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes as a rookie and has flashed that type of upside at times this year while fighting to earn steady playing time from mediocre HC Fred Hoiberg. Well over 2 appearances since the trade deadline, Mirotic has logged 56 minutes and scored 34 points with 18 rebounds to exceed value in B2B games, so he’s definitely worth a look at a modest price tag in a matchup against the Nuggets 30th-ranked defense.

Potential Value

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5000/$5600) remains a steady option for the Blazers and a relative bargain on DK.

Longshot

Julius Randle ($5700/$5900) has been quiet lately but could benefit from the absence of Hornets center Cody Zeller (quad), as could the more expensive Frank Kaminsky ($6900/$5900) of course.

Centers

Two Studs

Nikola Jokic (DEN) @ CHI: DK:$8,900/FD:$9,500 as PF

The Joker is not an easy fade tonight, especially at his price tag on a relatively weak position on DK. While he’s failed to meet value in three straight games, those were some really tough matchups and now he faces a Bulls team that is struggling defensively over the past couple months. Jokic represents a tough matchup for slow-footed center Robin Lopez while Chicago’s young PF duo (Mirotic and Portis) can’t deal with his length. He’s an excellent passer who can therefore see over the top of the defense or blaze past his defender and make things happen for the Nuggets in what should be another high scoring affair for that team.

Alan Williams (PHO) @ MEM: DK:$5,000/FD:$4,100

He’s a bit pricey on FanDuel but Williams appears to be the Suns center of the future. Tyson Chandler has not seen the floor since the ASB and Alex Len continues to disappoint while struggling with the pace of the NBA game. There’s very little chance that Len finds much room to operate against the Grizzlies stout front line, but Williams is a grinder who can mix it up and fill the stat sheet in a physical game. He posted 17 points, 15 rebounds, 3 assists and logged 3 steals in a win at Milwaukee on Sunday and should continue to earn more playing time with his hustle.

Potential Value

Zaza Pachulia ($3900/$4500) has been very productive since returning for the Warriors and he’ll be needed tonight against Marcin Gortat and the Wizards. Jusuf Nurkic ($5600/$5300) is worth a look despite his recent dud on Sunday.

Longshot

Andre Drummond ($8100/$8200) is always a wildcard since the fact that he shot 1-for-11 from the FT line against the Celtics on Saturday certainly hurt his upside while producing a big double double.


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