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Scouting The NBA DFS - Wednesday, March 1

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Plays of the Day

Value: Terrence Ross has earned 68 minutes of run over his first 2 appearances with Orlando and he could see even more usage tonight if Aaron Gordon (quad) is out. He’s scored 37 points on 14-of-32 FG shooting during that span and now he faces the Knicks 25th-ranked defense, which is in complete free fall. New York gives up the second-most FPPG (47.35) and third-most PPG (24.44) to opposing SFs over the last month and Ross could log the majority of minutes at the 3 for Orlando.

Fade: Karl-Anthony Towns and the young Wolves travel to Utah to face the NBA’s top scoring defense. His price tag is still pretty high and it’s tough to trust KAT in a matchup against Rudy Gobert.

Game Lines

  1. Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5) hosting Houston Rockets (Over/Under = 232.5)
  2. Sacramento Kings (-2) hosting Brooklyn Nets (Over/Under = 215.5)
  3. Boston Celtics (+1) hosting Cleveland Cavs (Over/Under = 222)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Chris Paul (LAC) vs. HOU DK:$8,900/FD:$9,700

After blowing up with 15 points, 17 assists, 9 rebounds and 56.25 DK points (53.3 FD points) in a win over Charlotte, Paul remains a bit under priced on DraftKings ahead of another plus matchup. The Rockets have the second-best offense in the league and that leads to a lot of shootouts given their space-and-pace approach that involves chucking nearly 50 threes per game. Paul averaged 18.3 PPG and 12.7 APG over 3 meetings with Houston last year and he faces Mike D’Antoni’s Rockets for the first time tonight. He’s sporting a 25.1% Usage Rate and 41.2% Assist Rate over his first 2 games back from injury and has put up great DFS totals despite some poor FG shooting (10-for-32), so he has a chance to go big at home if he can knock off the rust and knock down some shots.

Jrue Holiday (NO) vs. DET DK:$6,900/FD:$7,700

With DeMarcus Cousins (suspension) out tonight, everyone should be all over Anthony Davis while Holiday potentially slips through the cracks as a fantastic GPP play. Prior to Boogie’s arrival, Jrue the Damaga was crushing it with averages of 17.6 PPG and 7.6 APG over 22 appearances since January 1 and he’s averaging 1.03 FPs per minute without Cousins on the floor for New Orleans this season. Detroit is giving up the sixth-most FPPG (44.9) to opposing PGs on the year and is struggling to solidify that position with Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith trading roles. Look for Holiday to take advantage of that matchup and carry the Pelicans to a much-needed win at home along with The Brow.

Potential Value

Ty Lawson ($4200/$4900) remains a solid value in the right matchup and he draws the best matchup available against lowly Brooklyn tonight. Ish Smith ($4500/$4500) is also worth a look as a bit of a riskier value.

Longshot

Isaiah Thomas ($8500/$9400) could certainly snap his brief slump in a huge home game against the Cavs tonight. Patty Mills ($3600/$3800) will be worth a longer look if Tony Parker (quad) can’t play tonight.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. DEN DK:$10,500 as PG/SF/FD:$11,100

The Nuggets are currently ranked dead last in defensive rating and cough up the third-most FPPG (212.54) overall this season, so a player who leads his team in every statistical category is bound to have a good game against them. Giannis put up 23 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks in typical stat-stuffing fashion in a previous meeting with Denver and he should be even more productive in this home game. He’s averaging 24.4 PPG while shooting 54% from the floor in Milwaukee and should see even more of the ball tonight with Michael Beasley (knee) ruled out. The Greek Freak sports a 29.5% Usage Rate and averages 1.26 FPs per minute with B-Easy and injured teammate Jabari Parker off the floor and he will look to carry the load tonight in a potential shootout. While DeMar DeRozan is very appealing as a top option at SG with Kyle Lowry still out, paying a bit more for Giannis on FD could pay off as a way to differentiate.

Sean Kilpatrick (BKN) @ SAC DK:$4,400/FD:$3,800

Two of the worst defensive and fastest-paced teams meet tonight in Sacramento and there should be plenty of production to go around. Kilpatrick has been wildly inconsistent this year and he’s still more of a GPP play, but with Bojan Bogdanovic traded and Caris LeVert (illness) questionable to suit up tonight, his path is clear to heavy minutes as Brooklyn’s primary two-guard. Kilpatrick put up 15 points and 10 rebounds over 29 minutes in a tough matchup at Golden State on Saturday and now he faces a Kings team that coughs up the most PPG (26.36) to opposing SGs over the last month.

Potential Value

Rodney Hood ($4100/$4100) came through as a great value play last night and his price tag remains fixed ahead of an easier matchup against Minnesota tonight. Ben McLemore ($3900/$4200) is another value to consider with the Kings hosting the Nets.

Longshot

Seth Curry ($5900/$6100) has actually been consistent enough to use in all formats as the Mavs primary scorer and he sees a boost with Wesley Matthews (hip) expected to sit tonight.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

LeBron James (CLE) @ BOS DK:$10,900/FD:$10,600

Stacking LeBron with Isaiah Thomas and hoping for a shootout at Boston’s TD Garden tonight makes sense for some lineups this evening, as this potential ECF preview should be ripe with drama down the stretch. James always seems to step up when the Cavs face a perceived challenger and he’s killed the Celtics over the past several years. The King averages 26.5 PPG, 11.5 APG and 7.5 RPG while playing 80 minutes over 2 meetings with Boston this year and he’s not going to get much rest tonight with Kevin Love (knee) still out and Cleveland depending entirely on him and Kyrie Irving to initiate offense.

Terrence Ross (ORL) vs. NY DK:$5,200/FD:$4,400

If Aaron Gordon (quad) misses tonight’s game, Ross will become a very viable option in any format, but if AG plays you might want to pivot onto Rondae Hollis-Jefferson or perhaps Jae Crowder for a more reliable cash game play. Still, Ross is not the same type of longshot as he was in Toronto, because the Magic have given him 68 minutes of run over his first 2 appearances with his new team. Ross rewarded the coaching staff with 37 points on 14-of-32 FG shooting during that span and tonight he faces the Knicks 25th-ranked defense, which is in complete free fall. New York gives up the second-most FPPG (47.35) and third-most PPG (24.44) to opposing SFs over the last month and Ross could log the majority of minutes at the 3 for Orlando.

Potential Value

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5000 as PF on DK/$4800) is piling up peripheral stats for the rebuilding Nets and he should thrive in a matchup with the Kings. Bojan Bogdanovic ($4000/$3800) is starting to fit in off the Wizards bench and he’s extremely cheap right now.

Longshot

Andrew Wiggins ($7400/$8100) sees a big price drop on DK and should have a low ownership rate in a brutal matchup at Utah, yet he’s talented enough to score against any team.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Anthony Davis (NO) vs. DET: DK:$10,400/FD:$11,600

With Boogie out tonight the Pelicans offense will clearly run through The Brow and he’s certainly capable of carrying his team to a home win. Davis has somehow been better since the acquisition of Cousins with averages of 35.3 PPG and 10 RPG over his last 3 appearances and he’s been better at home all season with averages of 29 PPG and 12.9 RPG. Davis boasts a 35.8% Usage Rate while averaging 0.81 points and 1.42 FPs per minute with Cousins and Terrence Jones (cut) off the floor this season and tonight he’ll face a Pistons team that he burned for 31 points, 12 rebounds earlier this season. Detroit is pretty ill equipped to deal with a talented PF like Davis considering they use two natural SFs at that position in Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris, while The Brow is definitely under priced on DK.

Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC) vs. BKN: DK:$5,500 as C/FD:$5,400

As predicted in this very column, Cauley-Stein bounced back with a solid outing against Minnesota in his third game as the new centerpiece of the Kings frontcourt and he should carry that momentum into a dream matchup tonight. Brooklyn still plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and coughs up the most overall FPPG (226) while giving up the fourth-most FPPG (50.64) to opposing centers this season. Cauley-Stein should lead the way in this plus matchup with very few other offensive options available for Sacramento right now.

Potential Value

Trevor Booker ($4900/$5300) is another value to consider in a matchup between the Nets and Kings.

Longshot

Ryan Anderson ($4900/$4700) could get hot in a high-scoring affair at Staples Center tonight, as Blake Griffin isn’t really comfortable contesting three-point attempts from 30-35 feet out.

Centers

Two Studs

Nikola Jokic (DEN) @ MIL: DK:$8,800/FD:$9,800 as PF

After bouncing back with a triple double in a win over the Bulls last night, Jokic is somehow even cheaper on DK ahead of another good matchup. The Bucks manage to limit less talented centers, but really lack the personnel necessary to deal with the best big men in the league, including Jokic, who went for 20 points, 12 boards and 11 dimes to post his first career triple double on Feb 3 against Milwaukee. The Bucks actually cough up the fifth-most DK PPG to opposing centers on the season and Denver’s streaking offense runs through The Joker due to his incredible passing ability and deft finishing.

Hassan Whiteside (MIA) vs. PHI: DK:$8,300/FD:$8,800

The Joker is worth mentioning, but honestly I’d rather pay up for Whiteside in a dream matchup tonight. The 76ers were a very good defensive team with Joel Embiid active but have plummeted since then and currently use human turnstile Jahlil Okafor as their primary center. With Okafor in the paint, Philly coughs up the third-most FPPG (58.99) and most RPG (20.75) to opposing centers over the last month, while Whiteside has burned them twice to the tune of 42 points and 49 rebounds over 2 recet meetings. He’ll face the Sixers at home again, where he’s averaging 18.1 PPG, 15.4 RPG and 2.1 BPG on the season and has a chance to post a 20-20 game in this plus matchup once again.

Potential Value

Kyle O’Quinn ($5200/$4700) is going to be worth a look against his former team in Orlando tonight, especially if Guillermo Hernangomez (ankle) is unable to suit up for the Knicks.

Longshot

DeAndre Jordan ($7000/$7700) is an intriguing GPP play to consider against a Houston team that gives up the second-most FPPG (59.74) to opposing centers over the last month. Kelly Olynyk ($4200/$4200) is back to being a true value longshot and he should match up well against the small-ball Cavs tonight.


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