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Plays of the Day
Value: Alan Williams is a great value DK and a good bet to produce a double double while logging heavy minutes for the rebuilding Suns. He’s come through in tough matchups before including a huge double double against the Bucks, so you can trust Williams to produce against the tough Thunder front line at home tonight as he looks to follow up on last night’s double double.
Fade: Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming back down to earth to a degree and his price tag remains a little high to consider him against a Clippers team that usually does a great job of shutting down penetration and limiting opposing stars that can’t shoot very well.
- Philadelphia 76ers (+1.5) hosting New York Knicks (Over/Under = 217)
- Phoenix Suns (+4) hosting Oklahoma City Thunder (Over/Under = 225)
Russell Westbrook (OKC) @ PHO DK:$13,100/FD:$13,000
We normally skip right over Westbrook as an obviously elite option on any given slate if you can afford him, but it’s worth talking about paying up for the beast tonight. Westy put up his third consecutive game with 40-plus points on a ridiculous 36 FG attempts last night and his team lost, which is the biggest thing burning in his mind right now. Expect the fiery competitor to come out with even more fury against a Suns team that he’s embarrassed this year with averages of 38.5 PPG, 12 RPG and 16 APG over 2 meetings with the league’s 28th-ranked defense. Phoenix coughs up the ninth-most FPPG (44.1) and second-most PPG (24.59) to opposing PGs this season and Westbrook should continue to see ridiculous usage with Victor Oladipo (back) likely out until next week.
Dennis Schroder (ATL) vs. CLE DK:$6,200/FD:$6,500
Schroder appears to be a great mid-tier option tonight, especially in tournament formats as his Hawks (+3) host a Cavs team that is vulnerable against opposing guards. Cleveland is coughing up the third-most FPPG (48.22) to opposing PGs over the last month and Schroder went for 28 points on 10-of-16 FG shooting in a meeting with Kyrie Irving and the Cavs earlier this season. Schroder is second on the Hawks with a 27.3% Usage Rate this season and his confidence should be up after he’s posted averages of 16.3 PPG and 6.3 APG over 3 appearances since the ASB. The Cavs lack lockdown defenders on the perimeter as well as rim protection, which is ideal for a slasher like Schroder.
Tyler Johnson ($5200/$5800) has been very solid for Miami lately and he draws a plus matchup at Orlando tonight. Austin Rivers ($4200/$4700) is a riskier value play to consider off the Clippers bench.
D’Angelo Russell ($6900/$6400) is really starting to heat up for the tanking Lakers and he might serve as a good correlation play with Isaiah Thomas ($9300/$9800) since neither lefty PG plays much defense.
DeMar DeRozan (TOR) @ WAS DK:$8,900/FD:$9,900
While he wasn’t listed as the Fade of the Day on Wednesday, we avoided DeRozan in the Daily DFS Breakdown and he happened to turn in his first dud with Kyle Lowry (wrist) out of the lineup. The Wizards held him to 24 points on 7-of-20 FG shooting in Toronto and now he’ll face the same stingy defense on the road, but at some point an elite scorer is going to find ways to get buckets. DeRozan will have to carry his team in Washington tonight, as he’s sporting a ridiculous 42.9% Usage Rate and averaging 0.98 points per minute with Lowry off the floor this year. His price tag remains quite reasonable on DK and he was excellent with 40 points on 14-of-23 FG shooting in his only other meeting with the Wiz this season.
Seth Curry (DAL) vs. MEM DK:$6,000/FD:$6,100
Steph’s little brother continues to draw tough matchups, but he continues to succeed in them and he’s definitely worth a look as a mid-tier play tonight. The Grizzlies allow a below average 21.76 PPG to opposing SGs on the year, but below them on that list are the Wolves, Pistons and Heat- three teams that Curry combined to burn for 73 points on 65% FG shooting (28-for-43) over the last couple of weeks. He’s clearly locked in right now and is a good bet to exceed value while carrying the Mavs young backcourt at home.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4300/$5200) has seen his price tag plummet lately due to lackluster performances but he’s worth a look against the Cavs poor backcourt defense. J.J. Redick ($4500/$4300) is a good bet to get open tonight considering how the Bucks love to collapse on opposing PGs.
If Dion Waiters (ankle) is unable to go tonight, Josh Richardson ($3900/$4500) could emerge as a good punt play for GPP formats.
Kawhi Leonard (SA) @ NO DK:$8,800/FD:$9,000
Given the difference in their price tags, I’ll take Leonard over LeBron as the top SF option tonight. He faces a far worse defensive team in the Pelicans and should be called upon for some scoring down the stretch in what should be a close game with Boogie and the Brow challenging the Spurs in New Orleans. The Pelicans give up the ninth-most PPG (106.6) in the NBA this year and Leonard is carrying the Spurs elite offense while averaging of 28.4 PPG on 51% FG shooting since the calendar turned to 2017. He’s had mixed result against the Pels this year, which might explain his somewhat diminished price tag, but you can trust Kawhi to produce with his robotic efficiency, which makes him a fantastic cash game play tonight.
T.J. Warren (PHO) vs. OKC DK:$5,800/FD:$5,400
After yet another excellent performance for the rebuilding Suns, Warren’s price tag drops on FanDuel while only slightly rising on DraftKings ahead of another decent matchup tonight. The Thunder have one lockdown defender on the perimeter in Andre Roberson, but chances are he’ll be assigned to either Eric Bledsoe or Devin Booker for most of this game, leaving Warren free to operate against the inexperienced Alex Abrines or slow-footed Doug McDermott. Warren is averaging 18.3 PPG on impressive 67% FG shooting (35-for-52) over 4 appearances since Tucker was traded at the deadline and he’s a great cash game play now that he’s seeing heavy run as a main cog in the Suns fast-paced offense.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4400/$4000) caught fire on Wednesday with 7 threes for the Wizards and he’s clearly going to get more looks with his new team. Give Joe Ingles ($4000/$3700) another chance as a punt play against the lowly Nets if Rodney Hood (knee) remains out.
Khris Middleton ($6000/$5300) broke 30 minutes for the first time this year on Wednesday and he’s looking at a big role with Jabari Parker and Michael Beasley out indefinitely for the Bucks.
Anthony Davis (NO) vs. SA: DK:$9,400/FD:$10,900
The evaluation of Davis in a tough matchup against the Spurs seems starkly different on DK and FD based on his respective price tags, so you might only want to use him on DraftKings, where he’s much more likely to exceed value while giving you a double double bonus. The Spurs have a great defensive reputation, but don’t have the same personnel to lock down Davis as they have in the past and they’re giving up an above average 20.7 PPG to opposing PFs over the last month. Davis is averaging 29.2 PPG and 12.9 RPG at home this season and he’s somehow been even more productive since DeMarcus Cousins joined his squad, as the nagging injuries appear to be behind him and he’s performing like an all-NBA caliber forward again.
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) @ PHI: DK:$6,600/FD:$6,700
The Zinger is finally starting to round back into form as well while battling several nagging injuries and his price tag is still very reasonable on both main DFS sites. Porzingis went for 20 points and 9 rebounds to narrowly miss a double double in a win at Orlando on Wednesday and now he faces a 76ers team that is back to serving as a defensive doormat with Joel Embiid (knee) done for the year. Kyle O’Quinn logged just 20 minutes as the Knicks only other option at center on Wednesday while Guillermo Hernangomez (ankle) couldn’t play and Joakim Noah (hamstring) was shut down, so the Zinger could see plenty of minutes at the 5 against a Sixers team that coughs up the second-most FPPG (58.58) to opposing centers over the last month.
Taj Gibson ($3800/$4400) provided 6x returns on value while logging 33 minutes for the Thunder last night and he’s clearly a solid value option right now.
Ersan Ilyasova ($4100/$4800) got hot from the field for the first time as a member of the Hawks and he’s worth consideration against a shorthanded Cavs defense. Marquess Chriss ($4300/$4500) is also worth a look for the Suns as long as he’s healthy enough to go tonight.
Rudy Gobert (UTA) vs. BKN: DK:$7,300/FD:$7,500
It seems like this is a night to save at center, but if you want a reliable option for cash game lineups Gobert is definitely a great bet to meet value. He came up short of a double double for the first time in 8 appearances as the Jazz got smoked by Minnesota, yet he’s almost certain to bounce back against the worst team in the NBA. Brooklyn plays at the fastest pace, allows the most PPG (114.2) and ranks 28th in total rebounding this year while coughing up the fourth-most FPPG (50) to opposing centers on the season. Gobert went for 15 points and 16 boards without really breaking a sweat in a win over the Nets earlier this year and should be part of a big-time bounce back effort from the Jazz at home tonight.
Alan Williams (PHO) vs. OKC: DK:$4,400/FD:$4,900
Now we get to the two extremely appealing value options at center tonight, as Kyle O’Quinn ($5600/$4900) is also worth a long look at the same price on FD with Guillermo Hernangomez doubtful to suit up for the Knicks. While KOQ draws a much better matchup, Williams is clearly more of a value on DK and also a better bet to produce a double double while logging more minutes for the rebuilding Suns. He’s come through in tough matchups before including a huge double double against the Bucks, so you can trust Williams to produce against the tough Thunder front line at home tonight as he looks to follow up on last night’s double double.
Willie Reed ($3700/$3500) could see a big role tonight if he’s cleared from a calf injury and Hassan Whiteside (illness) is unable to go for Miami.
Enes Kanter ($5400/$5900 as PF on FD) continued to exceed value last night and should be a solid secondary option for the Thunder against the lowly Suns tonight.