Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Scouting The NBA DFS - Monday, March 6

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Plays of the Day

Value: Ty Lawson entered the Kings SLU last night and continued to reward the coaching staff with 19 points and 5 assists in a tough matchup in against Utah. Now he’ll face a Nuggets team that ranks dead last in defensive rating and coughs up the second-most FPPG (46.83) and fifth-most PPG (24.31) to opposing PGs this season.

Fade: James Harden has managed to burn the Spurs for triple double numbers over 3 meetings this year, but Kawhi Leonard is playing out of his mind defensively right now and it’s hard to trust the Beard at that price tag in a brutal matchup on the road.

Game Lines

  1. Philadelphia 76ers (+4.5) hosting Milwaukee Bucks (Over/Under = 212.5)
  2. Denver Nuggets (-12.5) hosting Sacramento Kings (Over/Under = 218)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Stephen Curry (GSW) @ ATL DK:$10,400/FD:$10,500

Steph broke out of a brief shooting slump with 31 points on 11-of-24 FG shooting to lead the Warriors to a win over the sad Knicks last night and they’ll need Curry to regain his MVP form while increasing his shot output going forward with Kevin Durant out indefinitely. He draws a great matchup tonight against a Hawks team that coughs up the seventh-most FPPG (46.27) and fourth-most PPG (25.5) to opposing PGs over the last month and Curry is now sporting a 36.4% Usage Rate while averaging 0.90 points and 1.39 FPs per minute with KD off the floor this year. Dennis Schroder was absolutely carved up by Kyrie Irving last Friday and Curry is probably the second-best ball handler in the league behind Kyrie, while he also possesses the most lethal jumper in NBA and will likely hit the Hawks backcourt with the full arsenal in a tough road test.

Ty Lawson (SAC) @ DEN DK:$4,600/FD:$4,600

Lawson was always going to see more usage and playing time with DeMarcus Cousins gone, but he even entered the SLU last night and continued to reward the Kings coaching staff with 19 points and 5 assists in a tough matchup in against Utah. Now he’ll face a Nuggets team that ranks dead last in defensive rating and coughs up the second-most FPPG (46.83) and fifth-most PPG (24.31) to opposing PGs this season. He should be motivated to face his former team and is accustomed to playing at altitude in Denver, while Lawson is sporting a 22.3% Usage Rate and 31.5% Assist Rate over the last month and remains a bargain on both main DFS sites.

Potential Value

Ish Smith ($4800/$4600) comes with a little bit of risk but he’s clearly taking over as the Pistons main option at PG and draws a plus matchup at Chicago.

Longshot

If the Nets can somehow stay competitive in Memphis tonight we should see Mike Conley ($8100/$7800) exceed value. Ricky Rubio ($6700/$6900) is coming off a triple double and draws a great matchup against Portland tonight.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) @ PHI DK:$10,000 as PG/SF/FD:$10,800

With his price tag creeping downwards on DK it’s probably time to pounce on Giannis in tournament formats ahead of a great matchup. Philadelphia’s become increasingly vulnerable on defense with Joel Embiid (knee) ruled out for the year, as the Sixers are allowing 114.2 PPG since the start of February and coughing up the most overall FPPG (233.18) by far over the last week. Since the Greek Freak leads the Bucks in every statistical category and has filled up the stat sheet with 40 points, 18 rebounds, 7 assists and 6 steals over 2 meetings with Philly so far this season, he’s an excellent play tonight and a good bet to break out of a stretch of mediocrity with a big line.

Tim Hardaway Jr. (ATL) vs. GSW DK:$5,000/FD:$5,500

After his price tag dropped to stunning levels, Hardaway Jr. is back in the mid-tier range, but still a bit cheaper than he was after proving his worth as the Hawks third scoring option when Kyle Korver was officially shipped out of town. Timmy was quiet for a stretch, but erupted with a 36-points game in a shootout loss to the Cavs and followed that up with 24 points on 9-of-16 FG shooting against the Pacers on Saturday. The Hawks (+6) have a chance to hang with the struggling Warriors while this game should certainly be high scoring with the league’s best offense visiting a poor Atlanta defense tonight. With Curry and Klay Thompson taking on an increased role offensively, Hardaway Jr. and the other Hawks guards should find it easier to operate against tired defenders.

Potential Value

Rodney Hood ($4500/$4200) returned to action with 28 points yesterday and he’ll be worth a look in a great matchup against the Pelicans tonight. Buddy Hield ($4200/$4400) has a decent floor for the Kings and it’s worth noting that Ben McLemore received a DNP-CD last night.

Longshot

Evan Fournier ($5500/$5300) provided modest output with Nikola Vucevic (Achilles) out last night but he could have a much better game tonight if that’s the case against the lowly Knicks defense.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Jimmy Butler (CHI) @ DET DK:$8,600/FD:$9,100

Much depends on the status of Dwyane Wade (thigh) as well as Rajon Rondo (ankle), who is more likely to miss tonight’s game than the veteran. If either guard sits out this contest, Butler will see a huge rise in usage and he’s sporting a 38.6% Usage Rate while averaging 1.45 FPs per minute with both players out of the lineup this year. Backup PG Michael Carter-Williams is coming back from a knee sprain and managed just 8 minutes in the Bulls last game on Saturday, so Jimmy Buckets is probably looking at heavy minutes and a big effort on the road tonight. He’s averaging 25.5 PPG on efficient 17-of-28 (60%) FG shooting over 2 meetings with the Pistons this year and went off for 43 points against Detroit at one point last season. The matchup is far from daunting and Butler is clearly Chicago’s best bet to win.

Terrence Ross (ORL) vs. NY DK:$5,700/FD:$4,500

Ross remains a fantastic bargain on FD and he’s worth a look as a mid-tier option on DK in tonight’s plus matchup. While he failed to exploit the Knicks porous defense last Wednesday, as he shot 0-for-5 from deep and 3-for-10 from the field, Ross has picked it up since then with 30 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists to exceed value in tougher matchups against Miami and Washington. New York is giving up the sixth-most PPG (108.7) and ranks 25th in defensive rating while giving up a healthy 38.54 FPPG to opposing SFs this season, so there’s no reason to expect Ross to struggle in this matchup at home, especially if he sees a boost in usage with Vucevic potentially out again.

Potential Value

Khris Middleton ($6500/$5600) is still under priced on FanDuel as well ahead of a great matchup against the Sixers as it appears his minutes restrictions have been lifted.

Longshot

Matt Barnes ($3500 as PF on DK/$4400) continues to see more minutes depending on the matchup for the Warriors and he might see steady run against the Hawks tonight.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. SAC: DK:$10,100 as C/FD:$9,900

While he was far from a third consecutive triple double with only 4 assists in a loss to the Hornets on Saturday, Jokic went for 31 points on nearly perfect 13-of-15 FG shooting to carry the Nuggets surging offense. He’s been the primary reason for Denver’s rise into the Top 5 in terms of offensive rating and he should continue to light the league on fire against a porous Kings defense that’s become far more vulnerable down low since shipping DeMarcus Cousins to New Orleans. Rudy Gobert nearly posted a 20-20 game against Sacramento last night and now the tired Kings will play at altitude against one of the most versatile big men we’ve ever seen.

Kristaps Porzingis (NY) @ ORL DK:$6,900/FD:$6,700

The Unicorn bounced back from a surprisingly quiet game against the weak 76ers defense to post a huge double double in a close loss to the Warriors on Sunday and he’ll definitely be worth a look as an under priced stud tonight. While Guillermo Hernangomez (ankle) returned to the Knicks lineup yesterday, he managed just 14 minutes and might not be ready for a heavy workload on the second half of a B2B set. Orlando’s interior defense has been awful all year and the Magic give up the sixth-most FPPG (51.38) along with the most RPG (21) to opposing centers over the last month after trading Serge Ibaka. With Nikola Vucevic (Achilles) iffy to play tonight, Orlando should offer very little resistance in the paint.

Potential Value

Bobby Portis ($5000/$4400) and Nikola Mirotic ($4600/$4200) are locked in an annoying timeshare, but both players would see a huge boost if D-Wade is inactive tonight.

Longshot

Aaron Gordon ($5500/$5200) is always a good GPP option and he will be worth a long look if Vucevic misses tonight’s game against the Knicks.

Centers

Two Studs

Rudy Gobert (UTA) vs. NO: DK:$7,000/FD:$7,600

The most intriguing question tonight is whether the Stifle Tower will stand up to the Pelicans’ new Twin Towers combination of Cousins and Davis. Based on their respective price tags on DK, some folks expect Utah to hold that tandem in check and the Jazz will need another huge game from Gobert if that’s going to be the case. He was the star of the night with 16 points, 24 rebounds and an even 60 DK points (57.3 FD points) against the shorthanded Kings defense on Sunday and now he’ll face a Pelicans team that coughs up the most RPG (16.9) along with the tenth-most FPPG (48.64) to opposing centers this season. I’d be happy to use Davis and/or Cousins at under $10K on DraftKings, but if you’re fading one or both, feel free to use Utah’s stopper as a correlation play.

Jusuf Nurkic (POR) @ MIN: DK:$6,800/FD:$5,900

It’s pretty surprising to see Nurkic become cheaper on FanDuel considering he’s playing like an elite center and getting enough minutes to exceed value with regularity. He’s averaging 14.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.6 APG and 3 STL/BLK per game over 5 appearances since the ASB and while tonight’s matchup is a bit tougher against Karl-Anthony Towns, the Wolves actually give up the fourth-most PPG (23) and an above average 48.22 FPPG to opposing centers this season. Nurkic has produced 22 points over just 35 minutes of run against the Wolves when he was a member of the Nuggets, but he’s averaging 17.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists per 36 minutes and is playing much closer to that number now that he’s with the Blazers.

Potential Value

Willie Cauley-Stein ($5100/$4900 as PF on FD) is coming off a great statistical game against the Jazz and draws a much easier matchup in Denver.

Longshot

Bismack Biyombo ($3000/$3500) would emerge as the best punt play on the board if Vucevic can’t go tonight.


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