Scouting The NBA DFS - Tuesday, March 7

We break down tonight's 3-game slate of NBA action and give you the top DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Tyler Ulis has earned 77 minutes over his last 3 appearances and produced 42 points and 20 assists during that span. He stepped up in crunch time with a game-winning 3 to down the Celtics on Sunday and will likely play a key role in a matchup with a guard-dominant Wizards team this evening. The Suns are going small with three-guard lineups to get Ulis more run and they’re certainly going young towards the end of a lost season.

Fade: The Blazers are giving up a surprisingly low amount of FPPG to opposing PGs this season and have limited Russell Westbrook’s peripheral output in a couple of meetings this season. That makes it a little risky to pay up for Mr. Triple Double at such a lofty price tag on such a short slate.

Game Lines

  1. Phoenix Suns (+5) hosting Washington Wizards (Over/Under = 227)
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder (-6) hosting Portland Blazers (Over/Under = 221.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Damian Lillard (POR) @ OKC DK:$8,800/FD:$9,600

It’s nearly impossible to craft a balanced LU on DK with Russell Westbrook on such a short slate, but his counterpart might be a better per dollar play in any case. With Victor Oladipo (back) out a couple of months ago, Westbrook went through the worst stretch of his historic season and he started to take a step back on Sunday with 29 points on 8-of-24 FG shooting in a blowout loss at Dallas. Westbrook’s defense is also suffering, as the Thunder allows the second-most FPPG (48.95) and PPG (26.6) to opposing PGs over the last month. Lillard has been red hot with averages of 28.5 PPG and 8.3 APG over his last 4 appearances and he should be ready to go in this premium individual matchup after getting an unexpected rest due to a postponement in Minnesota last night.

Tyler Ulis (PHO) vs. WAS DK:$4,600/FD:$5,300

There’s a real discrepancy in price tags at PG on the two main DFS sites, but in sticking with a balanced lineup on DK, it makes sense to save some salary by taking a chance on the Suns rookie. A man after the heart of HC Earl Watson, Ulis has earned 77 minutes over his last 3 appearances and produced 42 points and 20 assists during that span. He stepped up in crunch time with a game-winning 3 to down the Celtics on Sunday and will likely play a key role in a matchup with a guard-dominant Wizards team this evening. The Suns are going small with three-guard lineups to get Ulis more run and they’re certainly going young towards the end of a lost season.

Potential Value

Yogi Ferrell ($5000/$5100) has been quiet despite playing heavy minutes for the Mavs but he should find room to operate against the Lakers porous defense tonight.

Longshot

D’Angelo Russell ($7000/$6400) seems under priced on FanDuel. Jordan Clarkson ($5200/$5100) is also worth a look as one of the few sources of offense for the struggling Lakers.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Bradley Beal (WAS) @ PHO DK:$7,800/FD:$8,000

This is going to be a great game to target with two young, high-scoring teams going back and forth out in the desert. While John Wall should be quite productive, he’s far less affordable than his star backcourt-mate in Beal, who has also been red hot over the last couple of months. Beal is averaging 28.2 PPG on 53.8% FG shooting over his last 6 appearances and happened to torch Phoenix for 42 points on 14-of-22 FG shooting while schooling Devin Booker and company in a meeting earlier this year. The Suns allow the third-most FPPG (41.89) and PPG (25.4) to opposing SGs this season and Beal is a good bet to fill it up for the visiting Wizards.

Seth Curry (DAL) vs. LAL DK:$6,600/FD:$6,200

Suddenly one of the most reliable scorers in the NBA, the slow start to Curry’s career may have been more of a confidence issue than anything. Yet he’s playing great now while averaging of 23.3 PPG on 57.8% FG shooting (52-90) over his last 6 appearances and he draws a dream matchup tonight at home against a Lakers team that coughs up the most overall FPPG (227.17) by far over the last month. Luke Walton’s young team is ranked 29th in defensive rating and plays at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, so it’s definitely worth targeting that porous defense with the Mavs new primary scoring option.

Potential Value

Wesley Matthews ($5100/$5200) is an interesting pivot off Curry for cash game lineups if you want a Mavericks guard who will pile up more peripheral stats.

Longshot

C.J. McCollum ($7100/$7200) could blow up if Lillard doesn’t when the Blazers visit Loud City tonight. Nick Young ($4000/$4200) is in play as a true longshot for the struggling Lakers.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

T.J. Warren (PHO) vs. WAS DK:$5,900/FD:$5,600

There are very few players with true upside at this position tonight aside from wildly inconsistent Otto Porter, so it makes sense to roll with a reliable mid-tier play in Warren. He turned in yet another solid line with 14 points and 7 rebounds in a win over the Celtics on Sunday and has produced 25-plus DK points in 9 of his last 10 outings. He’s clearly benefitting from the departure of P.J. Tucker and the youth movement out in Phoenix, while his matchup is solid tonight against Porter Jr. and an inconsistent Wizards defense.

Maurice Harkless (POR) @ OKC DK:$5,300/FD:$4,800

You can’t necessarily expect him to flash as much upside in tonight’s matchup, but Harkless is coming off an 18-point game with a full line to exceed value against the lowly Nets. Like Warren, he’s been extremely reliable since the ASB and he’s clearly benefitting from the extended absence of Evan Turner (hand), as he’s logging 34.8 MPG over his last 5 appearances. Tonight the Blazers face a Thunder squad that coughs up an above average 38.21 FPPG to opposing SFs tonight and Harkless remains a solid mid-tier value for your cash game lineups.

Potential Value

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4900/$4000) has flashed plenty of upside since joining the Wizards and he could thrive in a high-scoring affair in Phoenix.

Longshot

Brandon Ingram ($4800/$3700) is worth a punt in GPP formats at that modest price tag on FanDuel.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Julius Randle (LAL) @ DAL: DK:$6,100/FD:$6,200

I’m willing to gloss over Markieff Morris in a revenge game at Phoenix for Randle, who should serve as the Lakers primary or secondary offensive option in a great matchup against the Mavs. Dirk Nowitzki had a good game against the Thunder on Sunday, but generally looked exhausted in the second half and might not have the energy to contain a physical young PF in Randle. The Lakers PF averaged 14.7 PPG and 12 RPG over 3 meetings with Dallas last year and went for a 15 points and 10 boards in the Lakers only close game against the Mavs this season. Dallas still ranks 30th in total rebounding and with Dirk down low, they’re vulnerable against stronger forwards.

Al-Farouq Aminu (POR) @ OKC DK:$5,400/FD:$5,400

Put Aminu in the category of solid mid-tier plays who can help you craft a balanced lineup tonight. Like Harkless, he’s also benefitting from the extended absence of Turner and he’s exceeded value in 6 of his last 7 appearances. Because the Thunder play with a decent amount of pace and miss a ton of jump shots (mainly Westbrook), Aminu will have ample opportunities to rebound as a stretch 4 for the Blazers and he managed to average 10.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 3.5 STL/BLK per game over 2 meetings with OKC so far this season. There’s not much to think about here, just use him as a reliable option in the mid-tier range.

Potential Value

Marquess Chriss ($4700/$4500) is a relatively reliable value play as part of the Suns youth movement.

Longshot

Taj Gibson ($3900/$4200) has been quiet since providing 6x returns on value against the Blazers, but he could have another great game in the same plus matchup tonight.

Centers

Two Studs

Jusuf Nurkic (POR) @ OKC: DK:$6,800/FD:$6,700

The Thunder represent a tough matchup for opposing centers, yet that’s the same opponent that Nurkic demolished for 18 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 blocks and 55.5 DK points (51.4 FD points) just five days ago. While Steven Adams is a great individual defender, Nurkic is a skilled center with a high basketball IQ and he didn’t try to go through Adams at any point, instead opting for hook shots or deft bounce passes to facilitate the Blazers offense from the post. He’s apparently just as valuable as Mason Plumlee was on that end of the floor and is a far superior defender, so it appears that the Blazers have found a gem in that trade.

Alan Williams (PHO) vs. WAS: DK:$6,700/FD:$5,500

Big Sauce has been a double double machine of late and Tyson Chandler hasn’t played in six straight games for the Suns. There’s no reason to expect much change at the tail end of a rebuilding season and Williams is a far better option than Alex Len against the physical Wizards front line tonight. He’s already exceeded value against the Bucks, Grizzlies and Thunder, so there’s no reason to fade Williams in a tough matchup on paper, as he’s clearly a superb value on FanDuel for this short slate.

Potential Value

Tarik Black ($3100/$3500) could see an expanded role for the Lakers with Larry Nance Jr. and Ivica Zubac both potentially inactive.

Longshot

Marcin Gortat ($5200/$6200) is very under priced on DK ahead of a good matchup against the Suns.


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