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Scouting The NBA DFS - Wednesday, March 8

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Plays of the Day

Value: Bismack Biyombo is the last man standing down low for Orlando with Serge Ibaka traded and Nikola Vucevic injured, and he logged 42 minutes on Monday as a result. The bigtime rebounder went for 10 points and 14 boards to post a double double on both ends of a B2B set for Orlando and he’ll draw a good matchup tonight against the Bulls.

Fade: Kawhi Leonard is coming off B2B monstrous games but he’s tough to trust in what should be a cakewalk for the Spurs (-15) over a really weak Kings team tonight. Leonard’s numbers only really take a dip when the Spurs win easily and his price tag is the highest it’s been all season.

Game Lines

  1. New Orleans Pelicans (-2) hosting Toronto Raptors (Over/Under = 203.5)
  2. Golden State Warriors (-8) hosting Boston Celtics (Over/Under = 222.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Isaiah Thomas (BOS) @ GSW DK:$8,800/FD:$9,400

When the Celtics faced the Warriors much earlier in the season, they couldn’t compete for four quarters and Thomas wound up with one of his worst lines of the season. Yet the C’s have been trending up over the last couple of months while Golden State (-8) is struggling to a degree without Kevin Durant. The Warriors allow the tenth-most FPPG (44.69) and sixth-most PPG (25.08) to opposing PGs over the last month and Steph Curry isn’t nearly as great defensively as he is on the other end of the floor. You can expect Curry and IT to trade blows down the stretch of what should be a closer game tonight, even though it’s in Oracle Arena, and we all know what the King in the Fourth can do in close games.

Dennis Schroder (ATL) vs. BKN DK:$6,700/FD:$6,900

It’s the Hawks turn to beat up on the NBA’s doormat with the Nets coming to town and Schroder should see his fair share of production as the conductor of Atlanta’s offense. He’s sporting the second-highest Usage Rate (27.2%) on the team and has certainly regained his role as a 30-plus minute player with averages of 17.8 PPG and 6 APG while shooting 46.7% from the field over his last 6 appearances. Tonight he’ll face a Nets team that is giving up the most FPPG (48.42) to opposing PGs and the most PPG (114.3) overall this season. Schroder produced a rare double double for him with 19 points and 10 dimes over just 29 minutes in an easy win over Brooklyn a few weeks ago and he should be in line for another good game tonight.

Potential Value

Ty Lawson ($4900/$5700) remains a great value on DK even in a tough matchup at the Spurs tonight. Reggie Jackson ($5100/$5200) certainly appears motivated by the great play of Ish Smith ($4600/$4600) lately and both PGs are worth a look tonight.

Longshot

Jeff Teague ($6700/$7200) is under priced ahead of a very good matchup against Detroit. If Rajon Rondo and/or D-Wade miss another game, Cameron Payne ($3000/$3600) will be worth a look as a punt play.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

James Harden (HOU) vs. UTA DK:$10,900/FD:$11,600

You can probably ignore The Beard outside of tournament formats at that price tag on FD, but at cheaper than $11k for the first time in months, he’s a great option on DK regardless of his matchup. He just produced over 60 DK points in tough tests against Memphis and San Antonio, so Utah’s top-ranked defense isn’t so intimidating that you should fade Harden without thinking twice. After all, he’s averaging 28.5 PPG and 8.5 APG over 2 meetings with the Jazz this season and he’ll have to turn it up a notch with Eric Gordon fading and Ryan Anderson (back) potentially missing tonight’s game. The Jazz are a bit banged up with Rodney Hood (knee) hobbled and George Hill (toe) questionable for this contest, so they might struggle to contain Harden on the perimeter even if Rudy Gobert continues to make it tough to score in the paint.

Dion Waiters (MIA) vs. CHA DK:$6,300/FD:$6,700

Waiters appeared to be fading down the stretch but suddenly showed life with 29 points and 5 assists to lead the Heat to a win at Cleveland on Monday night. He’s going to continue to see a heavy workload if Tyler Johnson (shoulder) and/or James Johnson (elbow) are forced to miss tonight’s game, as Miami takes on a struggling Hornets defense that’s giving up the fourth-most PPG (25.09) to opposing SGs over the last month. He’s sporting a 27.5% Usage Rate with both Johnsons off the floor this season and seems to be healthy again after logging 35 minutes in his last appearance.

Potential Value

Josh Richardson ($4200/$4300) continues to see more run for the Heat and he’s a cheap alternative to Waiters. Wayne Ellington ($3600 as SF on DK/$4000) seems like an even safer play if either Johnson is out for Miami.

Longshot

DeMar DeRozan ($8700/$10,000) is definitely under priced on DK after struggling against a stingy Bucks defense on Monday. Lou Williams ($4600/$4900) and/or Eric Gordon ($4300/$5000) could bounce back in a tough matchup at the Jazz tonight.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. NYK DK:$9,800/FD:$10,800 as SG

He’s far more attractive at that price tag on DK, where he could also potentially flirt with a triple double bonus in a juicy matchup, yet Giannis is worth a look in any format on FanDuel as well. The Greek Freak came alive for 24 points with a very full line in an easy win over the Sixers on Monday and he should be challenged to do more down the stretch against a Knicks team that’s a little better offensively, but even worse defensively. New York gives up the sixth-most FPPG (38.79) and eighth-most PPG (22.37) to opposing SGs this season and Giannis has burned the Knicks with averages of 26 PPG, 9 RPG and 6 STL/BLK per game over 2 meetings this season, while he’s also been much better at home.

Jimmy Butler (CHI) @ ORL DK:$9,200/FD:$9,200

With Dwyane Wade (thigh) doubtful to suit up this Wednesday, it’s hard to fade Butler in any format. Granted, he only met value with 27 points on poor 7-of-16 FG shooting at Detroit with Wade and Rondo inactive on Monday, but he’s certainly capable of putting up a more efficient line and bouncing back against a Magic team that ranks 23rd in opponents FG shooting (46%) and gives up the sixth-most RPG (8.45) along with an above average 38.33 FPPG to opposing SFs this season. Butler boasts a 38.1% Usage Rate and averages 1.45 FPs per minute when both Wade and Rondo are off the floor this year and he could certainly carry the Bulls (-1.5) to a tough road win.

Potential Value

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5000/$4000) is on fire right now and remains dirt cheap on FanDuel.

Longshot

Khris Middleton ($6600/$5700) is also still very cheap on FanDuel and he should be productive alongside Giannis in a plus matchup against the Knicks.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

DeMarcus Cousins (NO) vs. TOR: DK:$9,900/FD:$9,500 as C

Cousins is seeing a significant price drop on both main DFS sites, as he’s priced under $10k on FanDuel for what seems like the first time all season. Yet he draws a pretty good matchup at home against a Raptors team that struggles to defend the paint and has allowed Boogie to go for 20.5 PPG and 12 RPG over 2 meetings so far this season. He’s not seeing as much usage with his new team, but still boasts a sizable 30.7% Usage Rate and his Total Rebounding Rate (22.4%) has risen considerably now that he’s out of Sacramento, which indicates a higher level of effort. The Pelicans (-2) will be hard pressed to pull out this home win and both Cousins and Anthony Davis will likely put up big numbers as they look to break out after a stretch of brutal matchups.

Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC) @ SA DK:$4,900/FD:$5,400

Another cheap player in a tough matchup, Cauley-Stein might be able to exceed value while his team suffers a pretty lopsided loss in San Antonio tonight. The Kings have been able to surprise at times with DeMarcus Cousins out, including a last-second loss at Utah in which WCS went for 15 points and 9 rebounds with a full line to exceed value in that brutal matchup, so it’s not too far fetched that he could do the same at San Antonio. The Spurs are giving up an above average 21.45 PPG to opposing PFs over the last month and we might see more of David Lee than LaMarcus Aldridge or Pau Gasol in what should be an easy win for Gregg Popovich’s squad.

Potential Value

Ersan Ilyasova ($4300/$4800) is making the most of his minutes with the Hawks and he could see more playing time in a potential blowout win tonight.

Longshot

Aaron Gordon ($6000/$5700) is thriving for the Magic with Vucevic out and he draws a great matchup tonight against the Bulls weak PF defense.

Centers

Two Studs

Hassan Whiteside (MIA) vs. CHA: DK:$7,700/FD:$8,500

The Heat continue to roll and Whiteside continues to put up consistent numbers with the occasional spike in production due to a huge double double. Tonight could be one of those games for the big man against a Hornets team that’s lacked a true center all year and is giving up the sixth-most FPPG (49.32) to the position as a result. Charlotte is coughing up the second-most RPG (18.2) to opposing centers over the last month and Whiteside is averaging 12.5 RPG over 2 meetings with the Hornets this year. He has notable home/road splits with averages of 18.1 PPG and 15.2 RPG in Miami this year and is clearly under priced on DK given the circumstances.

Bismack Biyombo (ORL) vs. CHI: DK:$5,500/FD:$4,600

While Nikola Vucevic (Achilles) hasn’t been officially ruled out yet, it seems unlikely that the Magic will push him to play in the final month of a lost season. Biyombo is the last man standing down low with Serge Ibaka traded and Vooch injured, and he logged 42 minutes on Monday as a result. The bigtime rebounder went for 10 points and 14 boards to post a double double on both ends of a B2B set for Orlando and he’ll draw a good matchup tonight against a Bulls team that’s mediocre defensively and could struggle offensively if D-Wade remains out, opening up more opportunities for Biyombo to board up.

Potential Value

Clint Capela ($4700/$5100) remains reliable as James Harden’s PnR partner and he will have to play heavy minutes against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz tonight.

Longshot

Speaking of Rudy Gobert ($7600/$7800), he has as much upside as any center on the board in a matchup against a fast-paced Rockets team that gives up the second-most FPPG (56.7) to his position over the last month.


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