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Scouting The NBA DFS - Friday, March 10

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Plays of the Day

Value: Playing with John Wall has opened everything up for Bojan Bogdanovic. Over 8 games with Washington, he’s averaging 16.5 PPG and shooting 54.8% from downtown (23-for-41). He’s mixed in a couple of duds, but when the Wizards offense is clicking, he’s provided huge returns as a value play and you can expect Wall to get his shooters great looks tonight against a Kings defense that ranks 28th in opponents 3PT shooting (.378%) on the season.

Fade: Opposing defenses have apparently discovered the blue print to stopping DeMar DeRozan and it’s much easier to contain him without another certified threat on the floor. Kyle Lowry’s absence ensures more usage for DDR, but will he be able to meet value in a relatively tough matchup at Atlanta after consecutive duds?

Game Lines

  1. Denver Nuggets (+3) hosting Boston Celtics (Over/Under = 222.5)
  2. Minnesota Wolves (+5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 213.5)
  3. Sacramento Kings (+8) hosting Washington Wizards (Over/Under = 213.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

John Wall (WAS) @ SAC DK:$10,000/FD:$10,700

If the Kings can stay competitive at home tonight, Wall will almost certainly be worth the money as the most expensive PG on the board. He’s been rolling with averages of 21.3 PPG and 12.2 APG over his last 6 appearances and clearly draws a great matchup against a Kings defense that’s bad and getting worse. Sacramento is ranked 24th in defensive rating and is coughing up the sixth-most team APG (24.64) over the last month. Wall already torched this team for 19 points, 11 assists, 8 rebounds and surprisingly, 11 TOs in an OT win back in November, but the Wizards have become a far superior team over the course of the season, while Wall is averaging 22.9 PPG and 11 APG over four months since then. He remains one of the best cash game options that you can use at a cheaper price tag than the Hardens and Westbrooks of the world.

Isaiah Thomas (BOS) @ DEN DK:$8,700/FD:$9,200

This is going to be a great game to target out in Denver tonight with two fast-paced, high-scoring teams going back and forth. While Thomas continues to see a drop in usage with the Celtics employing more of a team-oriented approach down the stretch, he’s still a great bet to meet or exceed value at this price tag on DK in such a great matchup. Denver coughs up the second-most FPPG (47.01) to opposing PGs this season and ranks 30th in overall defensive rating. Yet the Celtics (-3) are hardly expected to run away with this game, as the Nuggets offense has become elite while their defense remains exploitable at all levels.

Potential Value

Jeremy Lin ($5000/$5400) is an appealing mid-tier option as he’s playing more minutes and should see more usage with Brook Lopez (ankle) out tonight. Jamal Murray ($4000/$3700) is worth a look as a punt for Denver, especially if Nikola Jokic (illness) remains out.

Longshot

Dennis Schroder ($6800/$7100) is a good bet to meet or exceed value in a plus matchup against the Kyle Lowry-less Raptors and yes, I’m fading Elfrid Payton ($7000/$7000) despite the fact that he’s coming off consecutive triple doubles.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. IND DK:$10,100 as PG/SF/FD:$11,100

Giannis came through and then some as a top-tier play on Wednesday with 32 points, 13 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals and 2 blocks to produce 71.5 DK points (69.1 FD points) in a win over the Knicks. That’s the type of stat-stuffing upside he can provide and he’s capable of carrying his offense for as long as Michael Beasley (knee) remains shelved. Tonight the Bucks wings draw a plus matchup against a Pacers team that’s disinterested defensively at times due to the lackluster effort of their leader in Paul George. The Greek Freak is averaging 23.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 9.5 APG over 2 meetings with Indiana this season and remains home, where he’s averaging 24.3 PPG and 50.5 DK PPG over 33 appearances this year.

Seth Curry (DAL) vs. BKN DK:$6,700/FD:$6,200

Seth has been carrying the Mavericks offense in recent weeks and he’s squarely in play as a mid-tier option with plenty of upside and a solid floor tonight. Because of course, the Mavericks are due to continue their productive offensive ways against a Nets team that coughs up the most PPG (114.2) and plays at the fastest pace in the NBA this season. Brooklyn allows the most FPPG (42.03) and PPG (24.2) to opposing SGs as well and that undisciplined unit is full of holes that Curry should exploit on his way to yet another 20-plus point game.

Potential Value

Avery Bradley ($5400/$5500) is back on the rise from a health standpoint after logging 30 minutes in a win at Golden State on Wednesday. Tyreke Evans ($5200/$5900) has become a reliable mid-tier option now that he’s back with a Kings team that’s desperate for playmakers.

Longshot

Sean Kilpatrick ($5100/$4200) has dropped 70 points while exceeding value in 3 straight appearances, so he’s worth a look in tournament formats with the Nets missing BroLo.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Wilson Chandler (DEN) vs. BOS DK:$7,100/FD:$7,100

Much depends on the status of his two teammates who are under the weather, but if Jokic and/or Danilo Gallinari miss tonight’s game with flu-like symptoms, Chandler could once again step up as the top scoring option for Denver. With Jokic out over the last 2 games, WilChan has poured in 57 points on 23-of-39 FG shooting (59%) and he’s fully capable of keeping Denver in the game at home tonight against a C’s team that he burned for 22 points over just 25 minutes in a meeting much earlier this season. Chandler sports a 26% Usage Rate and averages 1.01 FPs per minute when Jokic and Gallo are both off the floor and a 26.3% Usage Rate when only Gallinari is sitting, so he could have a very solid game if The Italian Stallion is inactive or limited by his illness.

Bojan Bogdanovic (WAS) @ SAC DK:$5,000/FD:$4,300

Playing with John Wall has opened everything up for Bojan after he spent most of the season on a Nets team that lacks any sort of PG presence. Over 8 games with Washington, he’s averaging 16.5 PPG and shooting 54.8% from downtown (23-for-41) to post a .673% eFG percentage during that span. He’s mixed in a couple of duds, but when the Wizards offense is clicking, he’s provided huge returns as a value play and you can expect Wall to get his shooters great looks tonight against a Kings defense that ranks 28th in opponents 3PT shooting (.378%) on the season.

Potential Value

Trevor Ariza ($4500/$4900) continues to provide solid returns as a key member of the Rockets and he could see even more run if Ryan Anderson (back) is unable to go.

Longshot

Andrew Wiggins ($7400/$7700) can really get going when he’s feeling it and he could have a bigtime scoring game at home against the Durant-less Warriors tonight.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Draymond Green (GSW) @ MIN: DK:$8,000/FD:$8,100

Numbers can only tell part of a story, because in a player like Green you have the emotional leader of a championship-caliber team that is reeling and needs to get fired up for a road win tonight. That means we should see “The Volcano” erupt in terms of on court performance and it wouldn’t be surprising if Green produces a triple double while leading the Warriors on both ends of the floor in Minnesota. He’s seen a bump in production since Durant went down with that bad knee injury and is averaging 1.11 FPs per minute with KD off the floor this year. The Wolves start a lanky PF in Gorgui Dieng who can’t really match Green’s intensity down low, so look for Draymond to win most contested boards and come up with a few turnovers with his stellar defense.

Aaron Gordon (ORL) @ CHA: DK:$5,900/FD:$5,600

While he’s usually an unreliable option with some upside, Gordon’s shown plenty of consistency with averages of 15.2 PPG and 7 RPG over his last 5 appearances. An injury to Nikola Vucevic (Achilles) has opened up a lot of touches for AG in the post and he draws a plus matchup tonight in which he could thrive if Vooch remains out. Charlotte gives up the second-most FPPG (48.11) and fifth-most RPG (13) to opposing PFs over the last month and the Hornets will still be without their primary PF in Frank Kaminsky (shoulder). With a 22.9% Usage and averages of 0.42 points and 0.78 FPs per minute with Vucevic off the floor this season, Gordon is a good bet to meet or exceed value.

Potential Value

Ersan Ilyasova ($4400/$4800) has been very steady off the Hawks bench and he should see more of Patrick Patterson than stingy defender Serge Ibaka in that role. Juancho Hernangomez ($3900/$3600) would become a great value if Jokic remains out for Denver.

Longshot

Thaddeus Young ($4200/$4900) finally broke out while playing 34 minutes on Wednesday and he’s clearly under priced if he’s healthy enough to log steady run.

Centers

Two Studs

Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) vs. GSW: DK:$10,600/FD:$10,600

The Warriors are really struggling right now and they’re heading to Minnesota tonight, where KAT is King. The Wolves big man averages 25.8 PPG and 13 RPG at home this season and he’s been prolific over the last couple of months with averages of 26.7 PPG and 13.2 RPG since the calendar turned to 2017. Golden State is playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and giving up an above average 15.38 RPG to opposing centers as a result, while Towns is averaging 21.5 PPG and 13.5 RPG over his 2 meetings with the Dubs. One of those games was a blowout, but there’s little expectation for the Warriors (-5) to win handily on the road without Kevin Durant and if Minnesota is going to stun another contender (after taking down the Clippers on Wednesday), Towns will have another big game.

Mason Plumlee (DEN) vs. BOS: DK:$5,900/FD:$5,600

It’s far from certain whether Jokic will play tonight or not, but he missed practice with his illness on Thursday and we’ll have to see how much he can do at today’s shootaround. If he’s out, Plumlee will step up as a handcuff with tremendous upside in a plus matchup. Boston still ranks 28th in total rebounding rate and coughs up the sixth-most FPPG (49.17) along with the fifth-most RPG (16.08) to opposing centers this season. Plumlee is basically a poor man’s Jokic with his excellent passing ability and decent ability to finish in the paint, so while the Nuggets trade for Plums seemed a bit strange at the time, it’s working out right now as the big man has stepped in for Jokic with 29 points, 22 rebounds and 10 assists while logging 31 minutes in each of his last 2 starts.

Potential Value

Bismack Biyombo ($5500/$4900) will remain a decent value play if Vucevic is still out for Orlando.

Longshot

Kelly Olynyk ($4000/$4000) is a risky value to consider tonight after his great game at Golden State. With Brook Lopez out, Justin Hamilton ($3000/$3500) should enter the Nets rotation and he could potentially start in a good matchup at Dallas.


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