Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Scouting The NBA DFS - Monday, March 13

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Plays of the Day

Value: Brandon Ingram is such a fantastic value on FD that he bears mentioning tonight. Denver is giving up the most FPPG (43.14) to opposing SFs over the last month with Wilson Chandler (GTD, groin) active for the most part, while Danilo Gallinari is a far inferior defender and lacks the lateral quickness to keep Ingram out of the paint. The rookie struggled at first, but seems to have found his confidence while the Lakers are giving him huge minutes in an effort to develop their top draft pick.

Fade: DeMar DeRozan has become temptingly cheap on DK but he draws a very tough matchup tonight against a Mavs team that’s held opposing SGs to the second-fewest FPPG over the last month. Wesley Matthews is a good defender who should be able to limit the Raptors only real offensive weapon right now.

Game Lines

  1. Denver Nuggets (-13.5) hosting Los Angeles Lakers (Over/Under = 230.5)
  2. Sacramento Kings (-1.5) hosting Orlando Magic (Over/Under = 205.5)
  3. Minnesota Wolves (-1) hosting Washington Wizards (Over/Under = 214)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Kemba Walker (CHA) vs. CHI DK:$8,100/FD:$8,400

He came through with a huge game in a win over the Pelicans on Saturday and Kemba’s price tag remains fixed on both main DFS sites ahead of another plus matchup. Chicago has seemingly packed it in for the season with a putrid performance against the Celtics on Sunday and two veteran guards in Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade who are breaking down while playing even worse defense than usual. The Bulls allow the sixth-most FPPG (46.35) to opposing PGs over the last month and Kemba is averaging 27 PPG on 19-of-28 FG shooting (.528%) over 2 meetings with Chicago this year. He’s been on fire lately with averages of 26.8 PPG and 5.5 APG over his last 5 appearances and is always more dangerous at home.

Patty Mills (SA) vs. ATL DK:$4,400/FD:$4,000

The Spurs are not a typical offensive team, so the fact that Mills is the only technical PG active tonight doesn’t guarantee he’ll see a huge spike in usage or playing time. That being said, with Tony Parker (back), Dejounte Murray (groin) and LaMarcus Aldridge (chest) all ruled out and Kawhi Leonard (concussion) still questionable, Mills is in good position to follow up on his 21-point performance against the shorthanded Warriors two nights ago. He’s sporting a 23.4% Usage Rate while averaging 0.90 FPs per minute with LMA and Parker off the floor this season and a 25.4% Usage Rate if Leonard is also off the court. Even if Kawhi suits up tonight, Mills is a great value option with upside against a Hawks team that coughs up the seventh-most FPPG (45.6) to opposing PGs over the last month.

Potential Value

Ty Lawson ($4800/$5200) is a decent bet to meet value in a plus matchup against Orlando. Jamal Murray ($4100/$3800) and even Emmanuel Mudiay ($3500/$4200) will be worth consideration in a golden matchup against the Lakers if Jameer Nelson (hip) can’t go.

Longshot

Elfrid Payton ($7000/$6900) continues to impress as the floor general for Orlando and he could have another big game against the Kings awful defense.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Bradley Beal (WAS) @ MIN DK:$7,600/FD:$8,000

Beal has been knockdown lately and it’s easy to expect him to continue to get good looks while he plays alongside a willing passer in John Wall. The Wolves are ranked 27th in opponent’s FG shooting (.467%) and 23rd in defensive rating this season, while Beal put up 22 points on efficient 7-of-12 FG shooting in his last meeting with Minnesota. He’s produced at least 19 points in 15 straight appearances and is heating up lately with averages of 28.8 PPG on 53% FG shooting and 52% shooting from downtown over his last 6 appearances. He’s got plenty of upside in a game with a 214-point Over/Under and a close line with Minnesota (-1) barely favored.

Jordan Clarkson (LAL) @ DEN DK:$5,500/FD:$5,200 as PG

Both Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell, who is a great bargain on FD at $6.7k, are seeing huge increases in usage with the Lakers in full-blown development mode and Lou Williams out of the picture. Clarkson is the cheaper option as they’ll both share the floor in a plus matchup against a Nuggets team that coughs up the second-most FPPG (46.82) to opposing PGs and third-most FPPG (40.12) while playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the league. He’s a great player in the open court and is sporting a 25.2% Usage Rate since the ASB along with averages of 15.3 PPG and 2.5 APG during that span.

Potential Value

Tyreke Evans ($5400/$5900) remains a reliable cash game option in the mid-tier range. Alec Burks ($3800/$3500) is also getting healthier and scoring consistently for the Jazz right now.

Longshot

Dwyane Wade ($6700/$7600) and the Bulls could bounce back from a putrid collective performance yesterday. For value, consider Buddy Hield ($4000/$4200) after his best game in a Kings uniform.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Andrew Wiggins (MIN) vs. WAS DK:$7,100/FD:$7,300

If you’re looking to buy low on an elite GPP candidate, consider Wiggins tonight in a potential shootout against the Wizards. He’s coming off a very rough stretch with averages of just 18 PPG and 3.5 RPG while shooting 30.7% (23-for-75) from the floor over his last 4 games, but remains an integral part of Minnesota’s offense with Zach LaVine done for the year. The last time Wiggy faced Washington he went off for 41 points on 16-of-30 FG shooting and that’s not surprising considering the Wiz have struggled against talented scoring wings all season. If Wiggins plays more SG while Shabazz Muhammad gets run at the 3, he should be able to work on a mediocre defender in Beal.

Brandon Ingram (LAL) @ DEN DK:$5,100/FD:$4,000

You can certainly consider Danilo Gallinari ($6200/$6500) under these circumstances, as the Nuggets could be without Nelson, Wilson Chandler (groin) and Kenneth Faried (back) tonight. Yet Ingram is such a fantastic value on FD that he bears mentioning over Gallo as a player who could also benefit from Chandler’s absence. Denver is giving up the most FPPG (43.14) to opposing SFs over the last month with WilChan active for the most part, while Gallinari is a far inferior defender and lacks the lateral quickness to keep Ingram out of the paint. The rookie struggled at first, but seems to have found his confidence while the Lakers are giving him huge minutes in an effort to develop their top draft pick.

Potential Value

Kyle Anderson ($3600/$4000) would serve as a very solid value play if Kawhi Leonard remains out. Terrence Ross ($5000/$4200) is a good bet to bounce back while finding his shooting stroke tonight against the lowly Kings.

Longshot

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4700/$4200) is a risk-reward play to consider with the Wizards travelling to Minnesota tonight.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. LAL: DK:$10,400 as C/FD:$10,000

At first it might seem like Jokic isn’t worth the money in a prospective blowout win at home, but he still put up solid numbers (20 points, 14 rebounds) while logging just 30 minutes in an easy win at Sacramento on Saturday. He played on B2B nights after missing consecutive games with the flu and should be ready to roll against a Lakers team that he roasted for 29 points and 15 boards in a previous meeting this year. That’s hardly surprising considering the Lakers are ranked dead last in defensive rating, cough up the third-most PPG (111.1) and give up the second-most FPPG (52.16) to opposing centers this season. The Joker is running everything for Denver offensively and he becomes much more appealing with news that Wilson Chandler and Jameer Nelson could both miss tonight’s tilt.

Julius Randle (LAL) @ DEN: DK:$7,500/FD:$6,500

While he seems a little too expensive on DK after producing a rare triple double last week, Randle is a solid bargain on FanDuel and worth consideration in most formats tonight. More than the plus matchup at Denver with two of the fastest paced and worst defensive teams in the NBA facing off, Randle is just playing with much more energy and efficiency lately while averaging 13 PPG, 11.4 RPG and 5.2 APG over his last 5 appearances. Denver is giving up an average 43.84 FPPG to opposing PFs this season, but those numbers normalized with Jusuf Nurkic on the squad and Kenneth Faried (back) active. If Faried remains out, Randle should be able to play bully ball against Gallinari and Juancho Hernangomez off the bench.

Potential Value

David Lee ($5000/$4400) should see a boost in usage and playing time with Aldridge out indefinitely. Bobby Portis ($4400/$4000) is worth a look now that Nikola Mirotic is receiving DNP-CDs.

Longshot

Willie Cauley-Stein ($5000/$5500) could finally have a good game against the lowly Magic tonight.

Centers

Two Studs

Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) vs. WAS: DK:$10,600/FD:$10,400

Towns’ Wolves are likely to get into a close game while hosting a red-hot Wizards team that’s making a push for the top of the ECF. KAT has been a monster this season with averages of 25.7 PPG and 12.9 RPG over 35 appearances and he’s on fire right now with averages of 27.8 PPG and 12.8 RPG over his last 4 appearances. Washington has a stout center in Marcin Gortat, but Towns creates so many matchup issues with his ball skills and he should be able to stay hot while carrying Minnesota tonight.

Nikola Vucevic (ORL) @ SAC: DK:$6,900/FD:$7,500

The “other” Nikola can be considered as a good mid-tier option on DK tonight after he returned from an Achilles injury with a great performance on Saturday. Vooch went for 20 points and 16 boards over just 28 minutes in a loss to Cleveland and he should be productive in an even better matchup this evening. Sacramento is ranked 24th in defensive rating and is coughing up the fifth-most overall FPPG (212.88) along with the third-most RPG (17.2) to opposing centers over the last month. DeMarcus Cousins is obviously gone and the Kings are playing at a faster pace while struggling even more defensively with their maligned superstar no longer in the picture.

Potential Value

Dewayne Dedmon ($3800/$3800) should see more playing time with Aldridge out and he’s the Spurs best bet to match up with Dwight Howard..

Longshot

Marc Gasol ($7300/$7700) could have a big game against a Bucks team that’s struggled to contain centers lately. If Rudy Gobert (knee) remains out, you can definitely consider DeAndre Jordan ($6500/$7400) on DK.


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