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Scouting The NBA DFS - Wednesday, March 15

We've got a full slate of NBA action tonight and the Daily DFS Breakdown will help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Buddy Hield has dropped 52 points on 19-of-37 FG shooting (51.3%) over his last 3 appearances and he’s logged 98 minutes during that span. Tonight he’ll face a Suns team that gives up the second-most PPG (112.6) and ranks dead last in opponents 3PT shooting (.384%) this season, so Hield could have another good game in a potential shootout.

Fade: James Harden and the Rockets draw a dream matchup at home against the porous Lakers defense, but it’s worth fading The Beard with Houston (-17.5) heavily favored against an overmatched opponent.

Game Lines

  1. Phoenix Suns (-5.5) hosting Sacramento Kings (Over/Under = 221.5)
  2. Boston Celtics (-6) hosting Minnesota Wolves (Over/Under = 209.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

John Wall (WAS) vs. DAL DK:$9,700/FD:$10,400

This price tag on DK is pretty hard to fathom, as the Mavericks are far from an elite defensive team and are playing well enough offensively to give Washington (-7.5) a game at home. Dallas is actually giving up an above average 23.55 PPG to opposing PGs over the last month and giving nearly all their minutes at that position to pint-sized rookie Yogi Ferrell. With Wesley Matthews (calf) potentially out tonight, Dallas could be much weaker on the perimeter and Wall already burned a healthier Mavericks team for 27 points and 8 dimes earlier this season. He produced 50-plus DK points in 5 of 6 appearances before posting an underwhelming line in a bad loss at Minnesota, so there’s no reason for such a price drop on DK.

Kemba Walker (CHA) @ IND DK:$8,600/FD:$8,400

Kemba has been on fire lately and it’s hard to ignore Kemba with the Hornets second-best playmaker inactive today in Nic Batum. He sports a 31.6% Usage Rate and averages 1.12 FPs per minute with Batum off the floor and should carry the offense even more tonight. The Hornets travel to Indiana to face a Pacers team that’s been mediocre defensively and struggle against explosive PGs such as Walker. Kemba is averaging 21.3 PPG and 7.3 APG over 3 appearances against the Pacers this season and he’s scored 21-plus points in 9 straight appearances with double-digit assists in each of his last 2 games.

Potential Value

Patty Mills ($5300/$4400) is still a certifiable value on FanDuel and he’ll be a borderline must play on that DFS site if Tony Parker (back) and Dejounte Murray (groin) remain out.

Longshot

As an upper-tier option, Isaiah Thomas ($8500/$8800) seems quite under priced ahead of a plus matchup at home. If you’re going bargain bin look at Tyler Ulis ($4700/$4400) or even Austin Rivers ($3500/$4400) on DK as a player who could make waves off the Clippers bench tonight.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

Devin Booker (PHO) vs. SAC DK:$6,700/FD:$6,600

While he doesn’t have much upside due to his lack of peripheral stats, Booker is a very safe cash game option because he’s one of the most reliable scorers in the league. He’s averaging 25.6 PPG on 50.5% (48-for-95) FG shooting over his last 5 appearances and draws a dream matchup tonight against a Kings team that is listless without any of its former stars. Sacramento gives up the third-most PPG (26.18) and second-most FPPG (43.05) to opposing SGs over the last month and Booker has had little trouble burning the Suns young rivals with 51 points on 52.8% FG shooting over 2 meetings with the Kings this season.

Buddy Hield (SAC) @ PHO DK:$4,600/FD:$4,600

Hield is a favorite of management and that’s bought him increased run and usage in Sacramento. The sharpshooting guard has dropped 52 points on 19-of-37 FG shooting (51.3%) over his last 3 appearances and he’s logged 98 minutes during that span. It’s not as if the Kings have many other options on offense with DeMarcus Cousins gone and Hield proved more than capable of carrying a heavy scoring load during his career at Oklahoma. Tonight he’ll face a Suns team that gives up the second-most PPG (112.6) and ranks dead last in opponents 3PT shooting (.384%) this season, so Hield could have another good game in a potential shootout.

Potential Value

Jordan Crawford ($4300/$4000) has found a home with New Orleans and he should continue to get buckets off the bench in a tough matchup at Miami. Jeremy Lamb ($5600/$4900) should be the primary beneficiary if Batum remains out.

Longshot

Danny Green ($3900/$4000) could continue to step up with Tony Parker and LaMarcus Aldridge likely out. Lou Williams ($5700/$5400) has struggled lately been has the revenge factor tonight against the Lakers.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Kawhi Leonard (SA) vs. POR DK:$9,800/FD:$9,400

The Spurs are shorthanded with LaMarcus Aldridge out indefinitely due to a heart arrhythmia, and Leonard actually told reporters that he expects his workload to increase with LMA out in a rare moment of transparency. His Usage Rate increases to 36.7% with Aldridge off the floor this season and he’s been on fire while bolstering his MVP campaign over the last month and a half with averages of 28.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.9 APG and 2 SPG over his last 15 appearances. Tonight the Spurs host one of the worst defensive teams in the league in Portland and Kawhi should have his way with the Blazers patchwork rotation on the wing after burning that group for 33 points in a previous meeting this season.

Paul George (IND) vs. CHA DK:$8,200/FD:$8,100

It’s worth considering PG in tournament formats tonight with the Pacers and Hornets getting into a potential dogfight in Indiana. He’s been solid with averages of 22.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 4.7 APG over 3 meetings wit the Hornets this season and now he should get to face that defense without defensive stopper Nicolas Batum active. Even with Batum in the fold, Charlotte gives up an above average 37.88 FPPG and the fourth-most APG (3.56) to opposing SFs on the season, while George is an excellent playmaker from the SF position, who remains the offensive focus for his team.

Potential Value

Marco Belinelli ($3600/$3500) should see more run with Batum out tonight. Brandon Ingram ($5000/$4300) remains a source of salary relief on FanDuel.

Longshot

Perhaps Andrew Wiggins ($6900/$7100) will finally wake up in a plus matchup at Boston tonight.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. MIL: DK:$7,900/FD:$8,800

There are several under priced studs on DK tonight and Griffin is one of the most appealing at a price tag that’s below $8K for the first time since he got fully back to speed after his knee surgery. Sure, Blake struggled in a brutal matchup at Utah on Monday, but Milwaukee is not the type of elite defensive team that the numbers might indicate. The Bucks are coughing up an above average 43.82 FPPG and the ninth-most PPG (21.8) to opposing PFs this season while ranking 23rd in total rebounding this year. Griffin ripped through their defense with 21 points, 9 boards and 8 dimes in a previous meeting this season and he’s more likely than not to exceed value in the same matchup at home.

Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC) @ PHO: DK:$5,600/FD:$5,500

It’s hard to predict when Cauley-Stein will break out with a high-scoring performance, but you know the minutes and usage are going to be there for him every single time the Kings take the floor. He’s supposed to take over the Cousins role for Sacramento and that means scoring in the low post, which is certainly possible against a weak Suns defense. Phoenix gives up the third-most PPG (22.71) and FPPG (45.05) to opposing PFs this season and WCS just produced with solid lines in much tougher matchups against the Wizards, Nuggets and Magic over his last 3 appearances.

Potential Value

David Lee ($5500/$4800) should be the main beneficiary in terms of playing time with Aldridge out for the Spurs.

Longshot

Don’t sleep on Nemanja Bjelica ($4400/$4400) in a fitting matchup against the shifty Celtics tonight, as he’s been heating up for Minnesota over his last 3 appearances.

Centers

Two Studs

DeMarcus Cousins (NO) @ MIA: DK:$9,500/FD:$9,000

Another under priced top-tier play, Big Cuz has essentially never been cheaper on both main DFS sites. He exceeded value with 22 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks last night despite playing just 30 minutes in a blowout win and the Pelicans (+6) are going to be hard pressed to win easily in Miami tonight. Boogie is scoring less (20.9 PPG) but rebounding more (12 RPG) over 9 appearances with the Pelicans and continues to dominate possessions with a 32.4% Usage Rate. While Hassan Whiteside is a big presence n the paint, he can only contain either Cousins or Anthony Davis and both big men are putting up solid numbers while DMC remains far, far cheaper on FanDuel.

Ivica Zubac (LAL) vs. HOU: DK:$5,300/FD:$4,900

New Lakers GM Magic Johnson has been on board with Zubac since day one and he’s lobbying efforts finally paid off, as the big rookie went off for 25 points and 11 boards while logging a season-high 30 minutes in Denver on Monday. The Nuggets represent a relatively tough matchup for big men, but the Rockets are coughing up the third-most FPPG (52.23) to opposing centers over the last month. Zubac could be the big body to solve the Lakers own issues in terms of interior defense and he’ll likely play big minutes once again if he can stay out of foul trouble while corralling plenty of rebounds off missed threes from the run-and-gun Rockets.

Potential Value

Pau Gasol ($5600/$5900) should be able to meet value with Aldridge out ahead of tonight’s plus matchup against Portland.

Longshot

Alan Williams ($5900/$5600) should have a solid game against the Kings regardless, but will be worth a much longer look if Alex Len (hip) remains out for Phoenix.


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