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Scouting The NBA DFS - Friday, March 17

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Plays of the Day

Value: Marcus Smart is a great value on DraftKings at $4,900. He's going to start with Isaiah Thomas  out tonight. Smart will see an uptick in minutes, an increase in usage and gets a great matchup against the Nets.

Fade: DeMar DeRozan hasn't been putting up huge lines with Kyle Lowry out. He has topped 40 FD points one time in the last six games and he's too expensive at $9,300. The Pistons play at a slow pace and the over/under of 199.5 points is the lowest of the night.

Game Lines

  1. New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5) hosting Houston Rockets (Over/Under = 227.5)

  2. Phoenix Suns (-3) hosting Orlando Magic (Over/Under = 220)

Point Guards

TWO STUDS

Tyler Ulis (PHX) vs. ORL DK:$5,700/FD:$5,400

Eric Bledsoe has been shut down for the season and Ulis is going to play big minutes. With no Bledsoe against the Kings on Wednesday, Ulis played 39 minutes and had 13 points, 13 assists, two steals, one block, one rebound and one turnover. Ulis has returned value in limited minutes and now he's almost assured to play more than 30 minutes.

Elfrid Payton (ORL) @ PHX DK:$7,800/FD:$7,200

Payton has been playing great and has big upside for GPPs. He has three triple-doubles in the last six games. He only played 22 minutes in a blowout against the Warriors on Thursday night and still had 27.5 DK points. The Suns are one of the worst teams at defending point guards and it will be a high-paced game.

POTENTIAL VALUE

Brandon Jennings ($4000/$4400) could get the start if John Wall sits out. Wall is listed as probable, but on Thursday Wall said he was 50-50 to play. The last time Jennings played significant minutes was on Feb. 10 and he had six points and 13 assists in 39 minutes.

LONGSHOT

Terry Rozier ($3000/$4100) will get more minutes with Isaiah Thomas out and is in play on DK as a punt play at minimum price.

Shooting Guards

TWO STUDS

Devin Booker (PHX) vs. ORL DK:$7,200/FD:$6,900

Eric Bledsoe has been shut down for the season and Booker sees an uptick in usage without Bledsoe on the court. Booker took 26 shots from the field without Bledsoe on Wednesday night. Booker has taken at least 20 shots from the field in four consecutive games and the Magic-Suns total is the second highest of the night.

Marcus Smart (BOS) @ BRK DK:$4,900/FD:$6,300

Smart is a much better play on DraftKings due to the cheaper price and Smart will start with Isaiah Thomas sidelined due to a right knee bone bruise. When Smart has started this season, he is averaging 12.1 points, 4.4 assists and 4.2 rebounds. The Celtics have the second highest implied total of the night.

POTENTIAL VALUE

Denzel Valentine ($4100/$3700) is in line to get more minutes with Dwyane Wade out for the season even though Paul Zipser gets the start. Valentine has played 28 minutes in two straight games and has 21.25 DK points and 27.75 in those games. Valentine played 30 minutes against the Wizards in January and had 19 points, two rebounds, two assists, two steals and five three-pointers.

LONGSHOT

E'Twaun Moore ($3500/$3900) has played at least 29 minutes in three of the last four games, including at least 30 minutes in the last two games. He had 21.25 and 22.75 DK points in those games and is in the highest scoring game of the night.

Small Forwards

TWO STUDS

Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) @LAL DK:$9,900/FD:$10,500

The Greek Freak hasn't played well the last few games. He hasn't topped 36.5 DK points in the last three games. That might make some shy away from him and with a lot of value already on the slate, it's looking like a stars and scrubs night. The best cure to get going is the Lakers. The last time he faced the Lakers he had 68 DK points, putting up 41 points, eight rebounds, six assists, three blocked shots, and two steals. Antetokounmpo is only eligible at SG on FD and PG/SF on DK.

T.J. Warren (PHO) vs. ORL DK:$6,600/FD:$6,300

Warren tends to take advantage of good matchups like he did last game against the Kings with 24 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two blocks for 43.75 DK points. He has become a force on the boards with at least seven rebounds in seven of the last eight games.

POTENTIAL VALUE

Brandon Ingram ($5000/$4400) is a better play on FD as the price has been slow to creep up. He has been playing big minutes and has at least 22 FD points in five of the last six games.

LONGSHOT

Shabazz Muhammed ($3700/$3700) saw 31 minutes last game as Nemanja Bjelica got hurt early in the game and is out for the season. The Timberwolves don't go deep in their bench and the minutes will be there for Muhammed, who had 28.1 FD points last game.

Power Forwards

TWO STUDS

Dario Saric (PHI) vs. DAL: DK:$7,900/FD:$7,900

Saric has been crushing it lately and the surge should make him the Rookie of the Year. Saric has topped 40 DK points six times in the last ten games, including consecutive games of at least 50 points against the Lakers and Warriors.

DeMarcus Cousins (NO) vs. HOU: DK:$9,800/FD:$9,400

The price on Cousins has dropped since he came to the Pelicans. While he has struggled, this is a great matchup in the highest projected game of the night. The Rockets struggled to defend big men. The last time Cousins faced the Rockets he had 27 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, four blocks and five steals.

POTENTIAL VALUE

Nikola Mirotic ($4300/$4300) is back in the rotation again after not playing for three games. He played 28 and 29 minutes the last two games. The Bulls need Mirotic's offense, especially with Dwyane Wade out for the season.

LONGSHOT

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4000/$4,400) has at least 30 DK points in two of the last three games, although both came against the Knicks. The Nets could rest some players opening up more opportunities for him.

Centers

TWO STUDS

Al Horford (BOS) @ BRK: DK:$6,100/FD:$6,500

Horford hasn't been great lately and or taken many shots from the field. He's coming off his best game in a while with 20 points, nine rebounds, eight assists and two blocks for 47.25 DK points. He went 9-for-12 from the field in a good matchup against the Timberwolves. Not only does he get a great matchup against the Nets, but Thomas is out and it will get Horford more involved in the offense.

Hassan Whiteside (MIA) vs. MIN: DK:$8,100/FD:$8,700

Whiteside is coming off two huge games with 20 points and 17 rebounds and 26 points and 21 rebounds. The Timberwolves have struggled to defend centers and Whiteside has at least 39 DK points in nine of the last ten games.

POTENTIAL VALUE

The minutes have been erratic for Kelly Olynyk ($4000/$3800). He has played 13, 31, 11 and 26 minutes the last four games. If he gets the minutes against the Nets, he will exceed value.

LONGSHOT


If you like narratives and revenge games, Nerlens Noel ($5500/$6000) is your play. He wanted more playing time and got his trade to Dallas. He goes against his former team and it wouldn't be surprising to see Noel get 30 minutes.


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