Top 37 Closer Options ADP Report
With the National Fantasy Baseball Championship coming up, I thought I would take some time to look at the current draft flow in March. I’ve put together the top 400 or so players drafted in 168 drafts in the NFBC to get help get a feel for each player’s value. Completed drafts are a great tool for Fantasy owners to get a feel for a player’s average draft position or ADP. By knowing the potential round a targeted player may go in, a Fantasy owner may be able to add a few more pieces to the puzzle with a good feel for drafts flow and timing.
The key is finding the drop-offs at each position plus knowing when there is a huge step down at a position if you miss a targeted player. Each owner at the draft table will have a different start to their roster leading to different paths to their team development.
To help get a feel for the player pool, I’ve highlighted some players at each position to show their possible value in 2017. Here is the table that shows what each color means:
Here is a list of some of the closer options in 2017 based on ADPs in March from the NFBC:
In 15 team leagues, top closers are being drafted late in the third round or early in the fourth round. Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen are the two top closers drafted in 2017. Both players have high K ability with value in ERA, WHIP, and saves. All the top eight options look attractive with Craig Kimbrel being the only arm that Fantasy owners don’t trust as much as his earlier career. Mark Melancon is the only option that doesn’t offer and edge in Ks.
Wade Davis is coming off an injury-riddled season. He lands in good spot if he can regain his previous form. I need to see more out of him before investing an early draft pick. Wade has been shaky so far in spring training (four runs and nine base runners allowed over 2.1 innings with four Ks). I’d buy insurance if I drafted him.
Both Ken Giles and Kelvin Herrera has enough upside to match some of the top closer drafted in 2017. Giles does have more competition for saves if he struggles at any point during the year.
Cody Allen will have the edge in saves in Cleveland, but Andrew Miller gets drafted close to him in most drafts. They have an ADP of 105 and 110 respectively.
I like the upside of Jeurys Familia even with a suspension looming. If he misses a month of the season, Familia could still save over 40 games. Addison Reed is the cover, but one owner seems to bite on his early. Reed hasn’t been sharp in spring training (nine runs and 14 base runners over six innings).
When selecting your second option for saves, a Fantasy owner doesn’t want to give away pick. Each possible closer with risk should be discounted due to his job loss risk.
San Dyson and Adam Ottavino make sense, but both options have arms behind them capable of saving games. Greg Holland has plenty of closing experience, and his arm is rounding into form (clocked at 95 mph in his first outing in which he pitched a perfect inning). The Rockies insiders suggest he’ll win the job out of spring training. I support this message. Matt Bush is coming fast so Dyson can’t stumble early in the season.
Tony Watson should do a nice job for Pittsburgh in the 9th. My fear with him is a mid-season trade where Tony becomes a lefty setup man for a contender. I have no doubt Raisel Iglesias with be the best option for saves for the Reds. Cinci doesn’t have a great rotation so his chance may rank below the top closing options in the game.
Both Shawn Kelley and Cam Bedrosian will be given closing jobs. Kelley has a short resume with some HR risk in his career. His K rate looks favorable for a 9th inning gig. The Nationals do have a young arm with closing upside in Trevor Gott. With Huston Street suffering another injury, Cam will have a solid run at saves for the Angels. Bedrosian did battle a groin issue in early March. He looks to be passed the issue after tossing three shutout innings with four Ks in Spring Training.