Top 24 Outfielders ADP Report
With the National Fantasy Baseball Championship coming up, I thought I would take some time to look at the current draft flow in March. I’ve put together the top 400 or so players drafted in 168 drafts in the NFBC to get help get a feel for each player’s value. Completed drafts are a great tool for Fantasy owners to get a feel for a player’s average draft position or ADP. By knowing the potential round a targeted player may go in, a Fantasy owner may be able to add a few more pieces to the puzzle with a good feel for drafts flow and timing.
The key is finding the drop-offs at each position plus knowing when there is a huge step down at a position if you miss a targeted player. Each owner at the draft table will have a different start to their roster leading to different paths to their team development.
To help get a feel for the player pool, I’ve highlighted some players at each position to show their possibly value in 2017. Here is the table that shows what each color means:
Here is a list of the top 24 outfielders in 2017 based on ADPs in March from the NFBC:
There are three stud outfielders being drafted within the first 10 picks of 2017 drafts. Every one knows Mike Trout provides a huge edge with electric upside. Mookie Betts was impressive in his second MLB season while offering a five-tool skill set. Bryce Harper failed to match his impact season of 2015 in 2016 due to a lingering shoulder issue. However, I still believe his game showed growth even in a down season. If he runs, Harper has a chance to be the best player in baseball in 2017.
Billy Hamilton hurts Fantasy owners in HRs and RBIs but if he steals over 70 bags, he would deliver a nice foundation in speed, allowing an owner to draft more power to fill the rest of his starting lineup.
I’ll put Starling Marte, A.J. Pollock, and Charlie Blackmon in the same grouping. Blackmon has the best combination of average, power, and speed followed by Marte. Marte just needs to improve as a run producer. Pollock has a short resume of success while suffering a minor groin issue in March.
George Springer and Chirstian Yelich each offer upside but both players need to run more. Yelich needs to lower his GB rate while Springer needs to keep his strikeouts under control.
There is a ton of power options in this group of outfielders so a Fantasy owner may need to get two strong outfielders inside the first 100 picks of the draft.
I expect a bounce back season from Andrew McCutchen and I trust Giancarlo Stanton more than most Fantasy owners. I’m neutral on Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo. Can they repeat? Cruz can’t hit 40 HRs again?
Ian Desmond will miss about a month of the regular season so his ADP will fall going forward. I don’t trust David Dahl (back/ribs) plus I thought he was already overpriced in drafts.
There is a nice group of veteran power bats who each have favorable price points: Ryan Braun (49), Yoenis Cespedes (59), Carlos Gonzalez (66), and Matt Kemp (98).
I like the breakout upside of both Gregory Polanco and Kyle Schwarber. That being said, I am fearful of Schwarber’s at-bats late in games due to his poor defense. The Cubs will play from the lead in many games this season and Manager Joe Maddon won't hesitate to replace Schwarber in the outfield after the 7th inning. Though If Kyle qualifies at catcher (10 games), he’ll offer a huge edge at the position if he delivers 30+ HRs.
Fantasy owners haven’t moved all these power hitters up their draft boards in the high stakes market. Shortstop, second base, and third base are much better positions than they have historically been the last couple of seasons. If you are looking for power in the outfield, it will most likely be available throughout the first seven rounds in 15-team leagues and first 10 rounds in 12-team leagues. Speed on the other hand, will be much more difficult to find.