Outfielders No. 25 to 48 ADP Report
With the National Fantasy Baseball Championship coming up, I thought I would take some time to look at the current draft flow in March. I’ve put together the top 400 or so players drafted in 168 drafts in the NFBC to get help get a feel for each player’s value. Completed drafts are a great tool for Fantasy owners to get a feel for a player’s average draft position or ADP. By knowing the potential round a targeted player may go in, a Fantasy owner may be able to add a few more pieces to the puzzle with a good feel for drafts flow and timing.
The key is finding the drop-offs at each position plus knowing when there is a huge step down at a position if you miss a targeted player. Each owner at the draft table will have a different start to their roster leading to different paths to their team development.
To help get a feel for the player pool, I’ve highlighted some players at each position to show their possibly value in 2017. Here is the table that shows what each color means:
Here is a list of the second 24 outfielders in 2017 based on ADPs in March from the NFBC:
The next group of outfielders only offer four or five options that have a chance to bat in a run producing part of the batting order. Jose Bautista holds a good amount of value given his ADP (114) and the fact that he is hitting third in the Blue Jays starting lineup. Adam Jones has long power history, though that power has begun to fade now that he will turn 32 years old this season. The Cardinals are expected to bat Stephen Piscotty cleanup creating a nice RBI opportunity.
A Fantasy owner should be able to find plenty of speed after the eighth round in 15-team leagues. Odubel Herrera and Adam Eaton will be the top two speed/power options in this group with both players offering a 15/25 skill set. Carlos Gomez is expected to bat leadoff for the Texas Rangers as he hopes for a bounce back season. Gomez has upside in power with some batting average risk if he doesn’t correct his K rate. I’m keeping an eye on Kevin Kiermaier. If he gets a chance to hit near the top of the Rays’ lineup, he may be poised to deliver a 15/25 type season with a lower price point (ADP of 184) than Herrera (120) and Eaton (127).
Andrew Benintendi has the best chance of breaking out in this group and has drawn a ton of interest across the Fantasy Baseball industry. Byron Buxton has elite talent once he figures out how to put the bat on the ball at a more efficient rate. He’s still getting respect mainly due to his nine HRs hit last September. I’m still a fan of Joc Pederson but my expectations are not as lofty as they were last season. The Dodgers should give Pederson more at-bats against lefties, but they need to let him run more to increase his Fantasy value. Joc has a solid chance at 30+ HRs with 550 at-bats.
Adam Duvall, Jay Bruce, Yasmani Tomas, and Marcell Ozuna are the pure power hitters of the crop, each having a different level of batting average risk. Duvall broke out last season while Bruce and Ozuna performed well over the first half of the season. Tomas may be the most stable power of this group in 2017.
I’m not going to fight for Eric Thames, but I do believe he will play well enough to be a 20/80 hitter after spending time overseas. His only risk is playing time against lefties.
Keon Broxton has upside and his counting stats look great in 2016 (28 runs, nine HRs, 19 RBI, and 23 SBs) over 208 at-bats. He delivered a high CTBA (.420), which was supported by his success in Triple-A in 2016 (.432) and the minors in 2015 (.400). My fear is his huge K rate (36.1) in the majors with minimal improvement from the minors (28.4). Strikeouts lead to lost playing time and job loss. Broxton will do have his moments if given a chance, but his bat could be exposed over the long haul of a full season in Major League Baseball.
Rajai Davis looks like the only base stealer in this area of the draft. He has a chance to snag 40+ stolen bases and If he plays well, the A’s could trade him to a playoff contender at the All-Star break. The key here is maintaining full time at-bats.
Most Fantasy owners will be shopping in multiple lanes in the later parts of the draft. Team structure will lead to the best assets for each team, but that doesn't mean several teams won't be competing for similar skill sets. The key is making the right move on the one remaining player with a unique skill set and opportunity.