Outfielders Nos. 49 to 72 ADP Report
With the National Fantasy Baseball Championship coming up, I thought I would take some time to look at the current draft flow in March. I’ve put together the top 400 or so players drafted in 168 drafts in the NFBC to get help get a feel for each player’s value. Completed drafts are a great tool for Fantasy owners to get a feel for a player’s average draft position or ADP. By knowing the potential round a targeted player may go in, a Fantasy owner may be able to add a few more pieces to the puzzle with a good feel for drafts flow and timing.
The key is finding the drop-offs at each position plus knowing when there is a huge step down at a position if you miss a targeted player. Each owner at the draft table will have a different start to their roster leading to different paths to their team development.
To help get a feel for the player pool, I’ve highlighted some players at each position to show their possible value in 2017. Here is the table that shows what each color means:
Here is a list of the third 24 outfielders in 2017 based on ADPs in March from the NFBC:
The outfield inventory appears to have more options in 2017 while offering more speed at the backend.
There are a few veteran bats in this group with long enough resume to expect a solid floor. Hunter Pence appears to be a value after two down seasons due to injuries. In deep leagues, I like Corey Dickerson as a backend power outfielder. The Rays have hit him leadoff this spring while posting a solid start in March (14-for-32 with a HR and five RBI). Corey needs to play well against lefties to be in the lineup every day.
I gave Yasiel Puig the breakout tag based on his talent. Just like many of you, I’m fearful of drafting him this year thanks to him crushing me in 2016. His price point is much lower, so his bar for his finals stats is much lower. I’d like him more if he had a fresh start in a new city. Hunter Renfroe has a full-time opportunity with a possible middle of the order opportunity. A 20/80 season with some batting average risk is well within reach. The sexy guy of the three is Max Kepler. He flashed in 2016 pointing to a nice season this year. In a way, his skill set reminds me of Grady Sizemore when he first came into the league.
I have a feeling Jason Heyward, and Jacoby Ellsbury provides winning value for their price point. Heyward has a lot to prove while Ellsbury really isn’t far off from being a productive 5th outfielder in deep leagues. Jorge Soler is another underperforming Cuban player with upside talent. Hopefully, a new home leads to a breakthrough season. Randal Grichuk has a huge power stroke if he can get his strikeouts under control enough to warrant a starting job every day.
I don’t think Jarrod Dyson will get as many at bats as most Fantasy owners think he will. He’s a Judy type bat with more of a bottom of the order skill set. I’d rather own Leonys Martin due to his added power. Travis Jankowski should get a chance for more at bats even with Manuel Margot on the roster as Alex Dickerson looks to have a long-term issue with his back. I did like Dickerson headed into March, but he’s now off my draft board. Margot has the more rounded skill set. Travis has plus speed, but last year he did strike out too much for a player with no power.
Michael Brantley has talent, but he’s making baby steps in his recovery from his shoulder injury.
I’m putting Domingo Santana in the same boat with Keon Broxton. Talented player with power and speed, but he may strikeout too much to keep a full-time job. More of a flash player for me; ride him when he’s hot and ditch him when he’s not.
Over the course of a long baseball season, a Fantasy owner will need to churn out the last couple of slots in the outfield to be competitive in all five categories. Each week there will be a new hot player, and I expect speed to be found on the waiver wire all season in shallow leagues.