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Scouting The NBA DFS - Monday, March 20

We've got a full slate of NBA action tonight and the Daily DFS Breakdown will help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Plays of the Day

Value: Jahlil Okafor (knee) and Justin Anderson (illness) are questionable tonight, which could open more opportunities for versatile swing man Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. The 6-foot-6 French national cracked Philly’s rotation a couple of weeks ago and is finding a steady role by averaging 13.4 PPG while playing 28.4 MPG over his last 5 appearances. Orlando’s already poor interior defense has completely deteriorated since Serge Ibaka was traded and TLC will be a good value to target if Anderson and/or Okafor sit this one out.

Fade: Chris Paul remains the maestro behind the Clippers offense but his numbers have been very lackluster lately and he barely exceeded value when Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan rested last Thursday. The Clips could win easily against the Knicks tonight and CP3 should defer to his big men as they do work down low.

Game Lines

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 222.5)
  2. Houston Rockets (-9) hosting Denver Nuggets (Over/Under = 236.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Stephen Curry (GSW) @ OKC DK:$9,400/FD:$9,900

Perhaps you’ll be able to squeeze Russell Westbrook into lineups tonight, but otherwise, it comes down to Curry or John Wall as a top-tier PG play. Steph is beginning to regain his rhythm as the unquestioned leader of the Warriors elite offense since Kevin Durant (knee) went down, as he’s averaging 27 PPG and 6.3 APG while shooting 35-of-78 (.449%) from the floor over his last 4 appearances. Golden State (-1.5) managed to bounce back from a near-loss to the Sixers with two blowout wins at home, but is clearly expected to get into a close game at Loud City, forcing Curry to match Westbrook’s offensive exploits by lighting up a Thunder team that coughs up an above average 43.52 FPPG to opposing PGs this season. Steph is averaging 23.7 PPG and 8 APG over 3 meetings with OKC this year and he’s obviously had some big games against the Thunder in the past.

Jeff Teague (IND) vs. UTA DK:$5,900/FD:$6,600

Teague remains seriously under priced on DK despite exceeding value in a tough matchup at Toronto on Saturday. Sure, he faces a Jazz team that ranks third in defensive rating and first in opponents scoring (96.3 PPG allowed) this season, but Utah’s Achilles heel has been crafty PGs that can create in PnR sets. Teague is one of the best in the business in terms of rolling to the basket off a screen or stepping back for mid-range jumpers and he was able to go for 19 points and 7 assists in a previous meeting with the Jazz this year, so there’s little reason to ignore him due to the matchup.

Potential Value

Jameer Nelson ($5500/$5500) had a huge game against the Rockets over the weekend and draws the same matchup in Houston tonight. Jamal Murray ($4800/$4400) will be worth a look for Denver, especially if Wilson Chandler and/or Danilo Gallinari remain out.

Longshot

Dennis Schroder ($7100/$7200) should lead the Hawks offense tonight, as he sports a 31.7% Usage Rate with Paul Millsap (knee) off the floor this season.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

James Harden (HOU) vs. DEN DK:$12,700/FD:$12,200

It’s a little easier to squeeze Harden into lineups tonight than the ultra-pricey Westbrook and he should be worth the money in a fantastic matchup. The Beard is working on a streak of four consecutive triple doubles, including a 40-point triple double to produce 73.5 DK points (63 FD points) against the Nuggets on Saturday. That’s not surprising considering Denver gives up the second-most FPPG (46.5) to opposing PGs and third-most FPPG (40.23) to opposing SGs this season, while Harden is playing both roles as the maestro behind Houston’s second-ranked offense. Because of the volatile nature of Westbrook’s performance against the elite Warriors defense, Harden seems like the safest play on the board tonight.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (PHI) @ ORL DK:$3,800/FD:$3,800

It seemed like Justin Anderson would be getting stready run for the Sixers towards the end of another lost season, but he’s fallen out of favor with HC Brett Brown and is in danger of missing tonight’s contest with an illness. Jahlil Okafor (knee) is also questionable, which would open more opportunities for a versatile player that we can lovingly call TLC. The 6-foot-6 French national cracked Philly’s rotation a couple of weeks ago and is finding a steady role by averaging 13.4 PPG while playing 28.4 MPG over his last 5 appearances. Orlando’s already poor interior defense has completely deteriorated since Serge Ibaka was traded and TLC will be a good value to target if Anderson and/or Okafor sit this one out.

Potential Value

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5800/$5600) should take a lot more shots with Millsap and Kent Bazemore (knee) inactive for Atlanta.

Longshot

Evan Fournier ($5600/$5400) is worth a look at home in a plus matchup against the Sixers porous defense.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

Gordon Hayward (UTA) @ IND DK:$6,900/FD:$7,600

There are several reasons to like Hayward as a play in any format tonight, and his low price tag on DK is certainly one of them. He returns to his home state to play in front of friends and family tonight and draws an individual matchup against disinterested defender Paul George. The Jazz should be shorthanded with Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood iffy to play through knee injuries, while Hayward boasts a team-high 31.8% Usage Rate and averages 0.70 points per minute with both of those players off the floor this season. Joe Ingles and Joe Johnson should see a rise in playing time with Favors and/or Hood out, but for a modest price bump on DK, you might as well pay up for the main man in Utah’s offense.

Joe Ingles (UTA) @ IND DK:$5,000/FD:$4,200

While it’s easy to make a jump from Ingles to Hayward on DK, Utah’s crafty lefty remains a much better source of salary relief on FanDuel at his modest price tag. He’s a much safer alternative to fellow value Joe Johnson ($4200/$3900), but both players are worth a look with Utah running a lot of small ball lineups and using each as hybrid SF/PFs with Derrick Favors approaching shut down territory. The Pacers use an undersized PF in Thaddeus Young, so it would make sense for Ingles to play around 30 minutes again tonight after averaging 13 PPG and 3.8 APG over his last 4 appearances.

Potential Value

Taurean Prince ($3500/$3700) has seen a rise in production in a couple of blowouts lately, but he could see steady run in a potentially close game tonight with Millsap and Bazemore out for Atlanta.

Longshot

Robert Covington ($6800/$7200) could get hot from the perimeter against a Magic team that ranks 25th in opponents 3PT shooting this year.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. NY: DK:$8,100/FD:$8,700

The Clippers are in a great spot to pick up some momentum after a blowout win over Cleveland with the lowly Knicks coming to town tonight. New York is ranked 25th in defensive rating and giving up the second most total RPG (46.75) over the last month while trying to meet Phil Jackson’s demands for a triangle offense. In his sole meeting with the Knicks, Griffin went for 32 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists, which isn’t surprising considering New York gives up the seventh-most FPPG (44.98) and most PPG (23.29) to opposing PFs this season.

Ersan Ilyasova (LAC) vs. NY: DK:$5,000/FD:$4,500

He’s been a solid value play off the bench for Atlanta and tonight we’ll get a chance to see what Ilyasova can do in a starting role. He should initiate things offensively while working with Schroder in PnR sets and is honestly a better spot up shooter than Millsap would be in that role. Ilyasova managed to rack up 23 points on 7-of-11 FG shooting in a blowout loss on Saturday so he’s clearly in rhythm ahead of a plus matchup against a Hornets team that gives up the ninth-most FPPG (46.82) and eighth-most PPG (22.38) to opposing PFs over the last month. Hornets PF Frank Kaminsky (shoulder) is still working his way back from a shoulder injury and is a below average defender anyways.

Potential Value

Richaun Holmes ($5100/$4800) should continue to put up solid numbers if Jahlil Okafor (knee) remains out.

Longshot

Dario Saric ($7800/$7800) is really an elite play in any format if you can afford him against a Magic team that gives up the second-most FPPG (50.73) to opposing PFs over the last month.

Centers

Two Studs

Nikola Vucevic (ORL) vs. PHI: DK:$7,700/FD:$8,000

The Sixers have been awful defensively and particularly vulnerable when facing skilled bigs since Joel Embiid (knee) was lost for the season. Philly is giving up the most FPPG (61.33) to opposing centers by far over the last month and the fifth-most overall PPG (111.5) during that span. For his part Vucevic is averaging 19 PPG and 12 RPG over 3 meetings with Philadelphia this season and he’s been huge since coming back from an Achilles injury. Look for Orlando to run its offense through Vooch in this plus matchup.

Rudy Gobert (UTA) @ IND: DK:$7,200/FD:$7,900

He’s an intriguing pivot off Vucevic, who should be a chalky play tonight given the Sixers ridiculous struggles against opposing centers. Yet Indiana is also very vulnerable down low and gives up the sixth-most FPPG (51.93) along with the fourth-most RPG (17.08) to opposing centers over the last month. Gobert towers over undersized center Myles Turner and went for 19 points and 11 boards in his sole meeting with the Pacers earlier this season. Now he’ll be asked to do more with Favors on the shelf and he’s averaging 1.04 FPs per minute with his frontcourt mate off the court this season.

Potential Value

Enes Kanter ($5000/$5500 as PF on FD) is a volatile value play to consider against a shifty Warriors defense.

Longshot

Dwight Howard ($7000/$6900) could showcase his rarely displayed post moves in a plus matchup against Charlotte with Millsap out tonight.


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