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Plays of the Day
Value: Denzel Valentine is soaking up minutes and touches with Dwyane Wade (elbow) ruled out for the rest of the season and his price tag is bound to rise eventually. He’s scored 11 points in 4 consecutive games and added solid peripheral stats with 28 rebounds and 11 assists during that span and draws a decent matchup tonight against a Raptors team that’s been discombobulated with Kyle Lowry out of the lineup.
Fade: While Valentine is worth deploying as a value play, Jimmy Butler seems like a risky option at his lofty price tag. The Bulls are really struggling in what appears to be a lost season and their star player seems a bit disillusioned from all the questionable transactions and injuries, so it’s far to stay away from him at Toronto this evening.
- New Orleans Pelicans (-2) hosting Memphis Grizzlies (Over/Under = 207)
- Dallas Mavericks (+5) hosting Golden State Warriors (Over/Under = 207)
Mike Conley (MEM) @ NO DK:$7,600/FD:$8,200
There’s a certain recipe for targeting Pelicans games lately and it involves choosing either Boogie or The Brow and stacking a playmaker from the other teams’ backcourt as a correlation play. New Orleans is becoming much better on the defensive interior, but still gives up the fourth-most FPPG (45.78) and PPG (24.4) to opposing PGs this season. Conley has taken on a much more aggressive approach for the Grizz of late and he’s averaging 20.8 PPG, 8 APG and 2.4 SPG over his last 5 appearances, exceeding value in 4 straight starts. The crafty veteran has actually been more productive on the road with averages of 21.3 PPG and 39.1 DK PPG this season and he should be productive in what projects to be a very close game.
Tyler Ulis (PHO) @ MIA DK:$7,300/FD:$6,400
We warned you that Ulis wouldn’t be this cheap for long, although he still remains under priced on FanDuel. He should be locked into lineups on that site and serve as a great cash game play tonight with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight unavailable. Ulis logged 39, 40 and 43 minutes over 3 appearance since EB was shut down and he might have to carry an even heavier workload tonight if Devin Booker (ankle) is hobbled or inactive. Regardless, he draws a good matchup against a Heat team that gives up the fifth-most PPG (24.62) to opposing PGs over the last month and he’s now functioning as the maestro of the Suns fast-paced offensive attack.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($3800/$3500) is apparently going to start at PG for the Nets going forward and he won’t need to do much to exceed value in a plus matchup at Detroit.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5000/$5000) is a good option to consider regardless against the Blazers, but he’ll become an appealing play in all formats if Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle) can’t go tonight.
Klay Thompson (GSW) @ DAL DK:$7,000/FD:$7,000
It’s tough to ignore a sharpshooter like Klay when he’s in a groove and happens to be facing a team that ranks dead last in opponents 3PT shooting (.378%) this year. Dallas is improving on the offensive end, which bodes well for a Warriors (-4) team that crushed the spread in OKC last night, partially thanks to Thompson’s 34 points on 12-of-21 FG shooting. He’s averaging 24.5 PPG on 19-of-34 FG shooting (.594%) including 9-of-18 from 3 over 2 meetings against Dallas and is sporting a 32.9% Usage Rate while averaging 0.74 points per minute with Kevin Durant (knee) off the floor this year.
Denzel Valentine (CHI) @ TOR DK:$4,500/FD:$4,600
Valentine is soaking up minutes and touches with Dwyane Wade (elbow) ruled out for the rest of the season and his price tag is bound to rise eventually. The Michigan State product has scored 11 points in 4 consecutive games and added solid peripheral stats with 28 rebounds and 11 assists during that span, which was his calling card as a great all-around player in college. He draws a decent matchup tonight against a Raptors team that’s been discombobulated with Kyle Lowry out of the lineup and might use a banged up DeMarre Carroll (ankle) to guard Valentine.
Austin Rivers ($3800/$4000 as PG on FD) could see extra run in a blowout win over the Lakers tonight and who knows, the Clippers might decide to rest some starters on the second half of a B2B set. Josh Richardson ($4800/$4600) should be safe to use in cash games with Dion Waiters (ankle) out.
Love Wesley Matthews ($5000/$4500) as a competitive two-way player with the potential to get hot in a shootout against the Warriors tonight.
Kawhi Leonard (SA) @ MIN DK:$9,800/FD:$9,400
There aren’t many other elite options at this position unless The Greek Freak is fully cleared to play in Portland, in which case he’d make for a dynamite option on DK in a fast-paced matchup. Leonard is as steady as any star you’ll find outside of the Harden/Westbrook duo and he should lead the Spurs elite offense against Minnesota’s 24th-ranked defense tonight. The Wolves (+5) have been competitive under most circumstances lately and should force Kawhi to play big minutes tonight, which is usually the only obstruction for an MVP candidate who averages 27.9 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists per 36 minutes this year. He happens to average 33 PPG and 55 DK PPG over 3 meetings with Minnesota this year and should continue to school young Andrew Wiggins.
Harrison Barnes (DAL) vs. GSW DK:$6,300/FD:$5,800
Not much has been made of the Harrison Barnes revenge narrative, but he’s quietly (as is his calling card) averaged 25 PPG and 37 DK PPG over 2 meetings with the Dubs this season. Golden State is reeling defensively following the loss of Kevin Durant and Barnes is the type of skilled wing player that can give them issues in this road test. The Warriors may be a little tired after a fast-paced road game at OKC last night and the Mavericks are well rested heading into this bout, so we could see HB look for his offense early and often if he feels at all slighted by his former team.
Brandon Ingram ($5000/$4500) continues to play around 40 minutes per game for the tanking Lakers and that makes him a reliable enough option.
Matt Barnes ($4300/$4200) and Andre Iguodala ($4600 as SG on DK/$4900) are both in play depending on how you think the Warriors will match up with the Mavericks tonight.
Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. LAL: DK:$8,000/FD:$9,300
Apparently DraftKings is trying to bait people into putting more exposure down by pricing superstar big men so low. Griffin was a bargain in a plus matchup against the Knicks last night and he’s even cheaper tonight against a Lakers team that now ranks dead last in defensive rating and opponents FG shooting (.482%) while blatantly tanking for a top draft pick. Those concerns could make Griffin a candidate to rest down the stretch of a blowout win, but while he’s out there he should be quite productive, as the Lakers give up the most FPPG (48.21) to opposing PFs this season. Griffin has yet to face the Clippers crosstown rivals this year, but he’s dominated the Purple and Gold in the past and represents a matchup nightmare for Julius Randle and company.
James Johnson (MIA) vs. PHO: DK:$6,300/FD:$6,400
Miami has been executing a very balanced attack and has become even more balanced with gunner and closer extraordinaire Dion Waiters (ankle) on the shelf. Johnson is sporting a 24.5% Usage Rate and averaging 1.04 FPs per minute with Waiters off the court this season and is always a candidate to pile up peripheral stats in fast-paced contests. The Heat hosts a Suns team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the league and coughs up the second-most PPG (112.5) tonight, so JJ should be able to sustain a high level of production after averaging 15.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4 APG and 2 STL/BLK per game over his last 5 appearances.
Marquess Chriss ($5600/$4900) is a solid mid-tier value to consider, while Bobby Portis ($3900/$4000) is more of a risky punt play to use for salary relief.
Dirk Nowitzki ($6200/$6000) is a candidate to step up if the Mavericks are able to give the Warriors a run for their money tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) vs. SA: DK:$9,700/FD:$10,400
Towns is in a decent spot at home tonight against the Spurs and he’s another big man who is frankly under priced on DraftKings. He’s been a beast at Target Center all year with averages of 26.1 PPG, 12.9 RPG and 51.1 DK PPG on the season and he’s been productive enough with averages of 20.7 PPG and 14.7 RPG over 3 meetings with the Spurs this season. San Antonio is still a disciplined defensive team, but lacks the personnel to contain truly elite big men with Tim Duncan gone and LaMarcus Aldridge struggling a bit this year, so KAT should be able to maintain his red-hot hand while posting great numbers again tonight..
Jusuf Nurkic (POR) vs. MIL: DK:$6,900/FD:$6,700
Nurkic remains a bargain on both main DFS sites and a perfect alternative to some of the pricier options at center tonight. He’s been rolling since dropping an unexpected dud against the Pelicans poor interior defense, as he’s produced 39 points, 30 rebounds, 9 assists and 9 blocks over 3 tough matchups against the Spurs, Hawks and Heat since then. He’s been a beast over 5 home games with the Blazers and should have a great game tonight against a weak Bucks frontcourt. Milwaukee is giving up the sixth-most RPG (16.38) to opposing centers over the last month and tenth-most FPPG (48.39) to the position this year, while particularly struggling against true 7-footers who play with physicality.
Alan Williams ($5900/$5700) is a solid bet to produce in a good matchup against Hassan Whiteside, who doesn’t always give the greatest effort on defense. Ivica Zubac ($5300/$4300) remains quite cheap on FanDuel.
Greg Monroe ($5500/$6400) will be worth a look as an option in any format if Giannis can’t play for the Bucks.