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Scouting The NBA DFS - Saturday, March 25

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Plays of the Day

Value: Seth Curry seems to be taking on a new role for HC Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks as more a PG and he responded with a solid game against his brother’s Warriors. Then he blew up for 23 points and 4 dimes in a very tough matchup against the Clippers on Thursday. Now he faces a Raptors team that’s giving up the sixth-most APG (9.36) and tenth-most FPPG (44.01) to opposing PGs over the last month.

Fade: Kawhi Leonard should eat in a plus matchup against the Knicks tonight, but who knows how much playing time he’ll get in what should be a comfortable win for the Spurs to open their weekend.

Game Lines

  1. Portland Blazers (-7) hosting Minnesota Wolves (Over/Under = 214)
  2. Cleveland Cavs (-6.5) hosting Washington Wizards (Over/Under = 217.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Damian Lillard (POR) vs. MIN DK:$9,100/FD:$9,600

Lillard continued his hot shooting with 30 points on 9-of-17 FG shooting in an easy home win over the Knicks on Thursday and he’ll stay home for what should be a closer matchup against the capable young Wolves tonight. Minnesota is now ranked 10th in offensive rating but 23rd in defensive rating and 28th in opponents FG shooting (.471%) on the year, so Dame should be able to continue finding his way to the rim for high percentage shots or assists. He’s averaging 31 PPG and 5.4 APG on 49% FG shooting over 12 March appearances and should do just fine in a matchup with below average defender Ricky Rubio.

Kyrie Irving (CLE) vs. WAS DK:$7,900/FD:$9,100

He’s relatively cheap on DK despite his potential and even the sniff of LeBron James resting vaults Irving into top play consideration. The King is questionable tonight according to most Sports Books because he’s been sitting out a lot of B2B sets lately, it’s the freaking weekend, and it’s just like LeBron to let his guys battle it out with another ECF playoff team while he proves a point to the media and everyone else that he can rest whenever he sees fit. In any case, Irving will operate against John Wall, who is apparently dealing with blinding headaches right now and has allowed Kyrie to average 26 PPG and 5.5 APG over 2 meetings this season. Irving sports a team-high 43.8% Usage Rate and averages 1.43 FPs per minute with LeBron off the floor and would become a virtual must play if James is out.

Potential Value

Tony Parker ($4000/$4100) and Patty Mills ($3900/$4100) are both capable of producing in what should be an easy win for the Spurs at home over the Knicks. If Derrick Rose (foot) remains out and the score gets out of hand, rookie Chasson Randle ($3200/$3500) could serve as a solid punt play in that contest.

Longshot

Brandon Jennings ($4000/$4200) has a very good game off the bench last night and he might see more time if Wall is affected by headaches in Cleveland.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) @ DAL DK:$8,700/FD:$9,200

After a scoring slump in which he failed to meet value in 5 consecutive appearances, DeRozan has exceeded value by a wide margin while producing 82 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists over his last 2 starts. He’ll continue to carry the Raptors offense with Kyle Lowry (wrist) on the shelf and is still sporting a 39.9% Usage Rate while averaging 0.88 points and 1.23 FPs per minute with Lowry off the floor this year. Tonight he faces a Mavericks team that’s solid against opposing SGs, but ranks 27th in overall FG defense and dead last in total rebounding this year, while he managed to go for 25 points and 6 boards in his sole meeting with Dallas earlier this year.

Seth Curry (DAL) vs. TOR DK:$5,200/FD:$5,300

Another player who was slumping as of last week and remains under priced as a result, Curry seems to be taking on a new role for HC Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks. Carlisle called former starting PG Yogi Ferrell a “great utility player,” essentially insinuating that Curry and others would take on more ball-handling responsibilities while serving as the floor general at times. Seth responded with a solid game against his brother’s Warriors and then blew up for 23 points and 4 dimes in a very tough matchup against the Clippers on Thursday. Now he faces a Raptors team that’s giving up the sixth-most APG (9.36) and tenth-most FPPG (44.01) to opposing PGs over the last month and is much more vulnerable in the backcourt with Lowry inactive.

Potential Value

Courtney Lee ($4400/$4500) played 41 minutes with D-Rose out on Thursday and will continue to see more usage if the Knicks PG sits tonight.

Longshot

Bradley Beal ($7700/$8000) was hardly needed in a blowout win over the Nets last night but he dropped 41 points and 8 dimes in a previous meeting with Cleveland and will be well rested for this big road tilt.

Small Forwards

Stud

Andrew Wiggins (MIN) @ POR DK:$7,000/FD:$7,000

If LeBron plays tonight, he’s the obvious top option at this position, but there’s little chance I’d pay up for Kawhi Leonard in what looks like an easy win for the Spurs at home. That leaves Mr. Wiggins, who is coming off a 36-points performance against the lowly Lakers last night and has been reliable with averages of 26 PPG and 37 DK PPG over his last 5 appearances. The Blazers give up the fifth-most PPG (109.5) and rank 29th in 3PT defense (.376%) this year, while Wiggins went for 24 points on solid 10-of-20 FG shooting in his sole meeting with Portland this year. He should be productive as Minnesota’s secondary scoring option in a fast-paced bout tonight and could see a boost once again if Shabazz Muhammad remains M.I.A. for the Wolves.

Potential Value

If Carmelo Anthony (knee) is out tonight, Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($3500/$4000) would serve as a solid value with upside, especially if Lance Thomas (hip) is also out for the Knicks.

Longshot

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4700/$3800) got hot last night against his former team in the Nets and could carry that momentum into another plus matchup against the Cavs.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Kristaps Porzingis (NY) @ SA: DK:$7,100/FD:$6,700

It’s a little tough to trust him in a tough road test against the Spurs, but the Knicks are clearly becoming Porzingis’ team down the stretch with oft-injured D-Rose and disinterested Carmelo taking it easy in a lost season. The second-year Latvian sensation is ramping up however, with averages of 17.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 2.3 BPG over 11 March appearances and his Usage Rate has spiked of late with the Knicks other two main offensive options injured/resting. The Spurs actually give up an above average 21 PPG to opposing PFs over the last month and The Zinger went for 16 points with 7 boards and 4 blocks to exceed value the last time he faced them, so he’s not a bad upper-tier option at a shorthanded position tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge (SA) vs. NY: DK:$6,900/FD:$7,300

On the other side of the ball, LMA represents a much safer option since he’s tied to an elite Spurs offense and will get to operate against an exhausted Porzingis or one of the Knicks inferior defenders off the bench. Aldridge is averaging 21.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG while shooting 50.5% from the floor over his last 5 appearances and seems to have a new lease on his playing career after clearing doctor’s evaluation with his heart arrhythmia. Tonight he faces a Knicks team that ranks 25th in defensive rating and coughs up the seventh-most FPPG (44.82) to opposing PFs this season while the Spurs excellent ball movement will open up looks for him all night.

Potential Value

Jason Smith ($4000/$3900) continues to take minutes from the struggling Markieff Morris and he could have a solid game in Cleveland tonight. Patrick Patterson ($3300/$3600) is another punt play with limited upside.

Longshot

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4100/$4500) snapped out of his funk with a good game against the Knicks on Thursday and could carry that momentum into another plus matchup tonight.

Centers

Studs

Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) @ POR: DK:$10,700/FD:$10,400

Clearly one of the safest plays on the board and an elite option in any format, Towns will look to top 25 points for a fifth consecutive game and he should be able to get there against a Blazers team that struggles to defend down low while coughing up the third-most FPPG (45.72) to opposing PFs this season. Portland is giving up the eighth-most PPG (23.08) to opposing centers over the last month despite the addition of Jusuf Nurkic and Towns is simply too versatile for any one defender to contain. He shot a rough 3-of-15 from the floor in his sole meeting with Portland this year but still met value with 13 rebounds and 6 assists, indicating the type of floor he has while his ceiling is above 60 FPs and could be higher than anyone else on the board if LeBron rests tonight.

Potential Value

Ian Mahimi ($3300/$3500) joins Jason Smith as a hustling reserve off the Wizards bench who is outplaying a starter in Marcin Gortat right now.

Longshot

As the only option to stop KAT tonight for Portland,Jusuf Nurkic ($7400/$6700) better be on his game.


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