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Scouting The NBA DFS - Monday, March 27

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Plays of the Day

Value: Tony Allen is a bit too cheap on both main DFS sites given his ability to pile up peripheral stats. The Grindfather is averaging 12.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.2 steals per 36 minutes and has played 59 minutes over 2 appearances since returning from a minor knee issue. Tonight he’ll face a Kings team that’s handing out the tenth-most turnovers per game (14.6) along with the eighth-most FPPG (38.71) to opposing SGs this season and he seems like a great bet to exceed value with another 20-plus FP performance.

Fade: Nikola Vucevic has been rolling lately but there’s not too much to love about his road tilt at Toronto tonight. Orlando is capable of getting blown out in this spot while highly-motivated and skilled former teammate Serge Ibaka could take his shots at defending Vooch.

Game Lines

  1. San Antonio Spurs (-5) hosting Cleveland Cavs (Over/Under = 211.5)
  2. Dallas Mavericks (+1) hosting Oklahoma City Thunder (Over/Under = 205.5)

Point Guards

Two Studs

Russell Westbrook (OKC) @ DAL DK:$12,500/FD:$12,900

He was headed towards disaster yesterday with the Thunder falling way behind the Rockets in the second half, but Westy still got a full slate of minutes and put up yet another triple double in a losing effort. It appears that his coach is on board with him chasing history, as he needs only 6 more triple doubles to break the all-time season record. Tonight he faces a Mavericks team that lacks continuity at the PG position with Seth Curry sliding over to that position while J.J. Barea and Yogi Ferrell back him up, and even though his peripheral stats have been lacking over 2 matchups against Dallas, Westbrook is averaging 37 PPG on 24-of-53 FG shooting (.453%) in those contests. At sub $13k on both main DFS sites, it’s suddenly much easier to pay up for the MVP candidate.

Mike Conley (MEM) @ SAC DK:$7,500/FD:$7,900

Marc Gasol (foot) was unable to play yesterday and the Grizzlies were unable to seriously challenge the Warriors as a result. While Gasol’s continued absence would create some concerns for this team, it’s not going to prevent them from handling the lowly Kings on the road and it should lead to a rise in usage for Conley. The lefty PG put up 29 points on efficient 9-of-15 FG shooting against the Dubs last night and is now sporting a 26.9% Usage Rate while averaging 0.99 FPs per minute with Gasol off the floor this year. The Kings are giving up the fourth-most FPPG (46.73) and most APG (11.36) by far to opposing PGs over the last month and have generally struggled to defend since trading DeMarcus Cousins.

Potential Value

Cory Joseph ($4800/$4800) is providing modest by solid numbers as Kyle Lowry’s fill-in and he draws a great matchup at home against the Magic tonight. If Ty Lawson (knee) misses another game, Darren Collison ($4700/$5400) would become a much safer play.

Longshot

Reggie Jackson ($4800/$4600) or Ish Smith ($5000/$4500)? Who knows which PG Stan Van Gundy will roll with tonight, but one of them is a good bet to exceed value against the weak Knicks defense.

Shooting Guards

Two Studs

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. ORL DK:$8,600/FD:$9,200

If the Raptors can get into more of a shootout than their recent 94-86 win over Dallas, DeRozan could have a much more productive game. He still put up solid numbers with 18 points and 6 assists in Saturday’s win and now he faces a far inferior Magic defense that ranks 21st in defensive rating and 24th in opponents FG shooting (.463%) on the year. Orlando is giving up the seventh-most FPPG (39.02) to opposing SGs over the last month and DeRozan is averaging 26.5 PPG on 19-of-39 FG shooting (.487%) over 2 appearances against the Magic this season. Of course he’s sporting a 39.9% Usage Rate and averaging 0.88 points per minute with Kyle Lowry off the floor this season and will carry Toronto’s offense whenever the Raptors get into a close game.

Tony Allen (MEM) @ SAC DK:$4,000/FD:$4,100

Regardless of Gasol’s status, Tony Allen is a bit too cheap on both main DFS sites given his ability to pile up peripheral stats. The Grindfather is averaging 12.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.2 steals per 36 minutes and has played 59 minutes over 2 appearances since returning from a minor knee issue. Tonight he’ll face a Kings team that’s handing out the tenth-most turnovers per game (14.6) along with the eighth-most FPPG (38.71) to opposing SGs this season and he seems like a great bet to exceed value with another 20-plus FP performance.

Potential Value

Tyreke Evans ($4500/$5500) should also be a good source of salary relief as on the few playmaking guards for the Kings. Garrett Temple ($4100/$4100) is also a reliable value out of Sacramento’s backcourt.

Longshot

Rodney Hood ($3900/$3700) doesn’t seem to be fully healthy, but he might step up for one night in a plus matchup against New Orleans if Gordon Hayward (quad) is hobbled or inactive.

Small Forwards

Two Studs

LeBron James (CLE) @ SA DK:$10,300/FD:$10,900

While he draws a tough matchup against his personal kryptonite in Kawhi Leonard, James is still definitely worth paying up for in a bounce back spot for the Cavs after their home loss to Washington on Saturday. Cleveland is now in a dogfight for the top spot in the ECF playoffs and needs to compete in every game, plus a matchup with the Spurs is always reason for the King to get up. He scored 29 points on 11-of-16 FG shooting in a previous meeting with San Antonio this year and burned the Spurs for 51 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists over 2 meetings last season. LeBron is somewhat quietly having one of his best campaigns with career-best averages of 8.7 APG and 8.3 RPG and he should be motivated while facing a championship contender on the road.

Kawhi Leonard (SA) vs. CLE DK:$9,500/FD:$9,100

The only other SF with tons of upside if Gordon Hayward is inactive tonight, Leonard also warrants consideration as a correlation play with LeBron or as a contrarian option for almost $2k cheaper on FanDuel. One of the few players capable out outplaying the King on both ends of the floor, Kawhi went for 41 points on 15-of-30 FG shooting to carry the Spurs to an OT win over the Cavs earlier this season after averaging 22 PPG and 8 RPG over 2 meetings with Cleveland last year. He’s become far more aggressive during the 2016-17 season and has posted a Usage Rate over 31% while shooting better than 48% from the floor in each month since 2017 began. You can almost always trust Leonard in close contests and the Spurs (-5) will be hard pressed to cover against a hungry Cavs team.

Potential Value

Joe Ingles ($4100/$4100) will definitely be worth a look if Hayward is out, while P.J. Tucker ($4400/$3900) should continue his solid run against a poor rebounding team, especially if DeMarre Carroll (back) remains out for Toronto.

Longshot

Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($4200/$3700) will remain an excellent value if Melo is out along with Lance Thomas (hip) tonight.

Power Forwards

Two Studs

Anthony Davis (NO) @ DEN: DK:$10,200/FD:$10,800

With DeMarcus Cousins (ankle) out last night, Davis came through with a predictably big double double and exceeded value while logging just 28 minutes in a blowout win at Denver. He should be well rested ahead of a much tougher individual matchup against Utah in which he’ll be asked to do a lot more with New Orleans (+7) checking in as serious underdogs on the road. Utah has held The Brow in check over a couple of meetings this year, but now Davis is playing to his full potential and he’s sporting a 34.9% Usage Rate while averaging 1.42 FPs per minute with Cousins off the floor this year. If Boogie plays, he’ll draw the stifling Rudy Gobert away from Davis, leaving The Brow free to operate against inferior defenders.

Zach Randolph (MEM) @ SAC: DK:$5,000/FD:$5,200

If Gasol remains out for Memphis, it’ll be tough to ignore Randolph since he boasts a team-high 33.3% Usage Rate and averages 1.12 FPs per minute with Big Spain off the court this season. He posted just 15 points and 5 boards last night in a brutal matchup against Draymond Green but now he’ll face a revolving door of rookies or sophomores and should have his way with the Kings inexperienced frontcourt. Sacramento gives up the sixth-most FPPG (45.12) this season and third-most FPPG (50.08) to opposing PFs over the last month, as the Kings continue to struggle without their former superstar center.

Potential Value

Patrick Patterson ($3400/$3600) has been reliable even if he doesn’t present much upside off the Raptors bench. Also have to like Serge Ibaka ($6100/$5700) as more of a tournament play against his former team.

Longshot

Skal Labissiere ($5000/$4700) couldn’t stay on the floor against the Clippers yesterday and draws another tough matchup against the Grizzlies tonight, but might be worth using if Gasol is out.

Centers

Two Studs

Rudy Gobert (UTA) vs. NO: DK:$8,000/FD:$8,700

If DeMarcus Cousins (ankle) is out tonight, the Pelicans will become significantly more vulnerable down low and The Stifle Tower is more than capable of staying hot in that type of plus matchup. Gobert has been on fire with averages of 22 PPG, 14.6 RPG and 4.2 BPG to average 52.7 DK PPG over his last 5 appearances and justify his price bump. Despite the addition of Cousins, the Pels are giving up the eighth-most RPG (16.08) to opposing centers over the last month and still give up the most RPG (16.69) to the position on the season. Gobert is averaging 12.5 PPG and 16 RPG over 2 meetings with New Orleans and should hold down the paint at home for Utah.

Guillermo Hernangomez (NYK) vs. DET: DK:$5,200/FD:$5,100

The Knicks are moving in the direction of a true rebuild with Carmelo Anthony resting/playing limited minutes and that’s opened it up for younger guys such as Wily Hernangomez. The talented rookie is averaging 15.6 points and 13.9 rebounds per 36 minutes this year and was unleashed to a degree by getting 36 minutes in a tough matchup at San Antonio on Saturday, rewarding the coaching staff with 24 points and 13 rebounds while exceeding value. Tonight the Knicks draw a much easier matchup at home against the Pistons and it’s worth deploying Hernangomez in GPP formats in the hopes that he stays hot.

Potential Value

Pau Gasol ($5200/$5800) is coming off a big game and should be at the center of the Spurs offensive attack against a struggling Cavs defense. Georges Papagiannis ($3700/$3500) is more of a true punt play if needed.

Longshot

Enes Kanter ($5400/$6000 as PF on FD) hasn’t had a big game yet while playing limited minutes against Dallas, but could dominate down low against that weak rebounding team.


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